Northern Kentucky hosts Central Michigan on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Huskies as the clear favourite, assigning them an 86% chance to win largely because of their 2-2 record and 79.0 points per game versus Central Michigan's undefeated 3-0 record and 89.0 points per game. Northern Kentucky has scored 79.0 points per game and allowed 99.8, while Central Michigan has averaged 89.0 points and allowed 68.7, a stark contrast that explains the model's confidence. At home, the Huskies are 1-0 with 84.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed, and their last five games include a 102-94 win over South Dakota Coyotes, a 63-125 loss to St. Louis Billikens and a 67-104 loss to Texas A&M, showing some volatility. Central Michigan's road record is 1-0, 83.0 points per game and 78.0 allowed, and their recent three wins over Youngstown State, Alma Scots and Louisiana Monroe illustrate a solid run. In their only prior meeting on 20 November 2025, Northern Kentucky beat Central Michigan 90-66. Pythia projects a 87-74 score, a total of 161.0, with an 81% chance the Huskies cover the -2.5 line and a 48% chance of the over on the 161.5 total, while the overtime probability sits at 3%. The game will hinge on whether Central Michigan can maintain its defensive edge against a Huskies team that has struggled to keep the score low.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Northern Kentucky winLost
85.7%fair 1.17
Best odds1.64
Implied59.4%
Edge+26.3pp
Central Michigan winWon
14.3%fair 6.99
Best odds2.37
Implied40.6%
Edge-26.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Northern Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
58.0%
@ 1.52-4.1pp
Under 157.5
42.0%
@ 2.55+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 162.5 · main lineActual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
45.8%
@ 1.92-3.7pp
Under 162.5
54.2%
@ 1.90+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Over/Under 167.5Actual: Under 167.5
Over 167.5
34.1%
@ 2.55-3.0pp
Under 167.5
65.9%
@ 1.47+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Northern Kentucky total 79Actual: Northern Kentucky under 79
Over 79
78.5%
Under 79
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Kentucky total 83 · main lineActual: Northern Kentucky under 83
Over 83
64.6%
@ 1.85+14.5pp
Under 83
35.4%
@ 1.86-14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Northern Kentucky total 87Actual: Northern Kentucky under 87
Over 87
48.2%
Under 87
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Michigan total 76Actual: Central Michigan under 76
Over 76
42.8%
Under 76
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Michigan total 80 · main lineActual: Central Michigan under 80
Over 80
28.0%
@ 1.88-21.6pp
Under 80
72.0%
@ 1.85+21.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Central Michigan total 83.5Actual: Central Michigan under 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Northern Kentucky -6Actual: Central Michigan +6
NORT -6
72.0%
@ 2.22+30.5pp
CENT +6
28.0%
@ 1.58-30.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Bet365
2.22
CENT
Bet365
1.58
Spread Northern Kentucky -3 · main lineActual: Central Michigan +3
NORT -3
80.8%
@ 1.91+29.6pp
CENT +3
19.2%
@ 1.97-29.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
CENT
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Spread Northern Kentucky 0Actual: Central Michigan 0
NORT 0
85.7%
CENT 0
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
CENT
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Northern KentuckyCentral Michigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Northern Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Central Michigan win
NORT win
no forecast
@ 1.72
CENT win
no forecast
@ 2.12
2nd half Spread Northern Kentucky -1.5 · main lineActual: Central Michigan +1.5
NORT -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
CENT +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Under 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Central Michigan (regulation)
NORT
no forecast
@ 1.78
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
CENT
no forecast
@ 2.15
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Northern Kentucky -5
75.2%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -5.5
72.9%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.12
-
-
+32.0pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -4
78.3%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathon Bet
1.98
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.88
-
+31.8pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -4.5
76.0%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+31.6pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -6
72.0%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+30.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -3.5
78.9%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
+30.2pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky (regulation)
83.9%
1.67
1xBet
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
-
-
+29.8pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -3
80.8%
1.85
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
+29.6pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -2
83.6%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
+27.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -2.5
81.2%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.81
Betano
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
+27.4pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -1
85.5%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky win
85.7%
1.61
1xBet
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
+26.3pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky -1.5
84.0%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.74
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Central Michigan under 81
75.3%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Northern Kentucky +1
86.9%
1.58
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +1.5
87.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +2.5
89.0%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +2
88.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +3
90.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +3.5
90.3%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Central Michigan under 80
72.0%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Northern Kentucky +4.5
91.7%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +5.5
92.9%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +4
91.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Lost
Central Michigan under 80.5
73.0%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
+19.9pp
Won
Northern Kentucky +6.5
94.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 80.5
73.0%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 78.5
79.2%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 79.5
76.2%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 77.5
81.9%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +11.5
97.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 75.5
86.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 73.5
90.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 74.5
88.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +16.5
98.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 72.5
92.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 71.5
93.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 70.5
94.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Northern Kentucky +21.5
99.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 69.5
95.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Under 170.5
72.4%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 169.5
70.3%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 170
71.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 177.5
84.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 172.5
76.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Over 137.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky under 99.5
90.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 142.5
87.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Lost
Central Michigan over 60.5
91.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Northern Kentucky under 97.5
86.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Central Michigan over 62.5
87.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Over 147.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky under 95.5
81.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Central Michigan +23.5
84.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Central Michigan over 64.5
83.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Northern Kentucky under 93.5
75.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Northern Kentucky under 92.5
72.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Central Michigan over 66.5
77.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Central Michigan over 68.5
71.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Lost
Central Michigan +18.5
71.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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