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Northwestern vs Dayton Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 79-66
Projected total 145.3
Scheduled
Position#128
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game70.8
Allowed / game61.8
Vs
87%
13%
■ NORT 87%■ DAYT 13%
Pythia win probability
Position#307
Record1-3
FormLWLLL
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game83.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Northwestern v Dayton
22 Nov 2026
NORT v DAYT
upcoming
10 Nov 2023
NORT71
DAYT66
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Northwestern host Dayton in the NCAA. Pythia makes Northwestern the favourite at 87% and projects 79-66, about 145 points in all. Overtime chance: 3%. Northwestern are 3-1 this season (70.8 scored, 61.8 allowed a game), form LWWWL; Dayton are 1-3 this season (81.5 scored, 83.2 allowed a game), form LWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Northwestern win
87.4%fair 1.14
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dayton win
12.6%fair 7.92
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NorthwesternUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
66-70
66
70
-4
H05/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H10/03
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
74-61
74
61
+13
A11/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
68-81
68
81
-13
A12/03
NCAA
Binghamton
#181
W
86-60
86
60
+26
H03/11
NCAA
Stony Brook
#273
W
78-65
78
65
+13
H07/11
NCAA
Boston University
#134
W
72-55
72
55
+17
H10/11
NCAA
DePaul
#57
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-36
34-26
34-25
32-45
29-39
37-28
34-32
42-34
36-37
38-24
21-45
47-36
51-35
35-25
44-30
34-35
39-24
33-31
23-27
24-40
135.0Avg total
69.6Scored
65.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)70.861.8132.5+9.075%
Season at home (4)70.861.8132.5+9.075%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)69.665.4135.0+4.260%
Last 5 (5)70.265.6135.8+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)65.574.1139.6-8.520%
vs Similar (8)71.868.2140.0+3.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)80.766.4147.1+14.386%
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DaytonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A28/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
65-60
65
60
+5
A04/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
62-68
62
68
-6
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H13/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
70-69
70
69
+1
A14/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
62-70
62
70
-8
A15/03
NCAA
NJIT
#345
W
89-58
89
58
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#178
L
76-81 OT
76
81
-5
H08/11
NCAA
Siena
#133
L
89-99
89
99
-10
H11/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#108
L
72-95
72
95
-23
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-31
34-35
40-32
25-28
36-37
26-31
30-27
38-36
33-36
37-33
25-40
37-30
47-23
42-35
29-40
38-27
45-46
44-53
34-52
38-43
145.0Avg total
72.1Scored
72.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)81.583.2164.8-1.825%
Season at home (4)81.583.2164.8-1.825%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.172.9145.0-0.850%
Last 5 (5)77.680.6158.2-3.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)72.583.1155.6-10.620%
vs Similar (15)74.167.3141.5+6.880%
vs Weaker (5)77.061.0138.0+16.080%
This opponent (Northwestern) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
47.8%
Under 146
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
35.6%
Under 151
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
24.8%
Under 156
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Northwestern total 80.5
Over 80.5
44.7%
Under 80.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern total 84.5
Over 84.5
29.5%
Under 84.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern total 88.5
Over 88.5
17.3%
Under 88.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dayton total 62
Over 62
65.9%
Under 62
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dayton total 66
Over 66
49.8%
Under 66
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dayton total 70
Over 70
34.0%
Under 70
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Northwestern -3
NORT -3
82.9%
DAYT +3
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
DAYT
No market prices yet.
Spread Northwestern 0
NORT 0
87.4%
DAYT 0
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
DAYT
No market prices yet.
Spread Northwestern +3
NORT +3
91.5%
DAYT -3
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
DAYT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: -1.1-1.12nd half2nd half: +3.2+3.22nd half: +0.8+0.8
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: -1.1-1.12nd half2nd half: +3.2+3.22nd half: +0.8+0.8
NorthwesternDayton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NorthwesternLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
L
29-36
29
36
-7
H28/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H05/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H10/03
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A11/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
21-45
21
45
-24
A12/03
NCAA
Binghamton
#181
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H03/11
NCAA
Stony Brook
#273
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H07/11
NCAA
Boston University
#134
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H10/11
NCAA
DePaul
#57
L
23-27
23
27
-4
H14/11
NCAA
67.0Avg total
34.0Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.734.067.7-0.350%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.432.568.9+3.967%-
Last 30 away (12)29.636.365.9-6.825%-
Last 10 (10)34.033.067.0+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)35.632.267.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)31.735.667.3-3.933%-
vs Similar (8)33.231.664.9+1.650%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)38.633.472.0+5.186%-
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DaytonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A04/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H13/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A14/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A15/03
NCAA
NJIT
#345
W
47-23
47
23
+24
H03/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#178
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H08/11
NCAA
Siena
#133
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H11/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#108
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H15/11
NCAA
71.7Avg total
35.3Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.734.670.3+1.157%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.732.770.4+5.072%-
Last 30 away (12)32.837.470.2-4.733%-
Last 10 (10)35.336.471.7-1.140%-
Last 5 (5)36.040.276.2-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)33.541.274.7-7.710%-
vs Similar (15)36.931.468.3+5.587%-
vs Weaker (5)36.831.067.8+5.860%-
This opponent (Northwestern) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Northwestern wins
1
Dayton wins
DateGameScore
10/11/24Dayton v Northwestern71-66
11/11/23Northwestern v Dayton71-66
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HDePaul47-67
10/11/26HBoston University72-55
07/11/26HStony Brook78-65
03/11/26HBinghamton86-60
12/03/26APurdue68-81
11/03/26AIndiana74-61
10/03/26HPenn State76-66
08/03/26AMinnesota66-67
05/03/26HPurdue66-70
28/02/26HOregon63-62
Daytonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HCincinnati72-95
11/11/26HSiena89-99
08/11/26HNorthern Illinois76-81 OT
03/11/26HNJIT89-58
15/03/26AVCU Rams62-70
14/03/26ASt. Louis Billikens70-69
13/03/26HSt. Bonaventure68-63
07/03/26HVCU Rams62-68
04/03/26ARichmond Spiders65-60
28/02/26AGeorge Washington68-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Northwestern
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWWL75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game70.870.8-
Allowed / game61.861.8-
Point differential+9.0+9.0-
Avg total132.5132.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%75%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Dayton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLL25%
HomeWLLL25%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %25%25%-
Points / game81.581.5-
Allowed / game83.283.2-
Point differential-1.8-1.8-
Avg total164.8164.8-
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%25%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %25%25%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic 10 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 St. Louis Billikens330100%102.371.3+31.0
2 George Washington440100%80.051.8+28.2
3 Rhode Island440100%81.259.2+22.0
4 George Mason440100%72.058.5+13.5
5 Duquesne440100%72.264.5+7.8
6 Saint Josephs Hawks440100%78.871.8+7.0
7 Richmond Spiders43175%89.064.0+25.0
8 St. Bonaventure43175%82.062.5+19.5
9 Loyola Chicago43175%79.867.5+12.2
10 Davidson43175%71.061.5+9.5
11 Fordham43175%76.572.0+4.5
12 VCU Rams32167%85.770.0+15.7
13 La Salle31233%67.384.7-17.3
14 Dayton41325%81.583.2-1.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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