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Northwestern vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 17 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 86-70
39-30 47-40
Position#251
Record6-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game71.1
vs
Position#170
Record6-4
FormLWLWL
Points / game73.1
Allowed / game68.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Northwestern winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NorthwesternUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
W
70-47
70
47
+23
H04/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
76-52
76
52
+24
H07/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H11/11
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A15/11
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
78-83
78
83
-5
A21/11
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
79-77
79
77
+2
H23/11
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H28/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
73-85
73
85
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
82-86
82
86
-4
H06/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
93-53
93
53
+40
H13/12
NCAA
1H
2H
36-25
34-22
45-26
31-26
53-28
57-35
42-44
39-35
36-40
42-43
36-34
43-43
40-39
41-47
32-55
41-30
44-40
38-46
41-24
52-29
153.4Avg total
82.3Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)82.371.1153.4+11.260%
Season at home (7)84.466.3150.7+18.171%
Season away (3)77.382.3159.7-5.033%
Last 10 (10)82.371.1153.4+11.260%
Last 5 (5)81.677.4159.0+4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)71.378.1149.4-6.810%
vs Similar ◀ (15)73.970.9144.8+3.153%
vs Weaker (5)84.263.8148.0+20.480%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
66-63
66
63
+3
H05/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
59-107
59
107
-48
A08/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H13/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
68-50
68
50
+18
H16/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
90-75
90
75
+15
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
56-64
56
64
-8
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-55
84
55
+29
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H13/12
NCAA
1H
2H
31-25
35-38
26-58
33-49
25-19
43-44
22-30
46-20
39-27
51-48
30-36
26-28
37-17
47-38
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
40-31
30-42
141.4Avg total
73.1Scored
68.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)73.168.3141.4+4.860%
Season at home (7)72.960.9133.7+12.071%
Season away (3)73.785.7159.3-12.033%
Last 10 (10)73.168.3141.4+4.860%
Last 5 (5)76.065.0141.0+11.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)67.777.6145.3-9.929%
vs Similar ◀ (16)71.973.8145.7-1.944%
vs Weaker (7)76.165.6141.7+10.657%
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.0+5.01st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +6.2+6.22nd half: +1.7+1.7
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.0+5.01st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +6.2+6.22nd half: +1.7+1.7
NorthwesternValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NorthwesternLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H07/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
53-28
53
28
+25
H11/11
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A15/11
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A21/11
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H23/11
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H28/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
32-55
32
55
-23
A04/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H06/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
41-24
41
24
+17
H13/12
NCAA
76.0Avg total
40.5Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.934.468.3-0.557%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.631.968.6+4.781%-
Last 30 away (14)30.837.268.0-6.429%-
Last 10 (10)40.535.576.0+5.070%-
Last 5 (5)38.638.477.0+0.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)32.439.071.4-6.640%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)33.432.766.1+0.760%-
vs Weaker (5)38.430.268.6+8.280%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
31-25
31
25
+6
H05/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
26-58
26
58
-32
A08/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H13/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H16/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
37-17
37
17
+20
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H13/12
NCAA
62.6Avg total
33.0Scored
29.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.133.567.6+0.553%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.931.666.4+3.362%-
Last 30 away (14)33.135.868.9-2.643%-
Last 10 (10)33.029.662.6+3.470%-
Last 5 (5)37.427.464.8+10.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)35.137.072.1-1.971%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)32.832.765.5+0.144%-
vs Weaker (7)35.932.067.9+3.957%-
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Northwestern wins
0
Valparaiso wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25HJackson State93-53
06/12/25HOhio State82-86
04/12/25AWisconsin73-85
28/11/25HOklahoma State81-86
23/11/25HSouth Carolina79-77
21/11/25AVirginia78-83
15/11/25ADePaul81-79
11/11/25HCleveland State110-63
07/11/25HBoston University76-52
04/11/25HMercyhurst Lakers70-47
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25HNC Wilmington70-73
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT
29/11/25HWestern Michigan84-55
26/11/25HSouthern Indiana56-64
20/11/25ACleveland State90-75
16/11/25HBryant University68-50
13/11/25HNicholls State68-63
08/11/25AKentucky59-107
05/11/25HEastern Illinois66-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Northwestern
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW60%
HomeWWLLW71%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %60%71%33%
Points / game82.384.477.3
Allowed / game71.166.382.3
Point differential+11.2+18.1-5.0
Avg total153.4150.7159.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%57%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL60%
HomeWLWWL71%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %60%71%33%
Points / game73.172.973.7
Allowed / game68.360.985.7
Point differential+4.8+12.0-12.0
Avg total141.4133.7159.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%43%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %10%0%33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan10100100%94.767.7+27.0
2 Nebraska11110100%83.868.3+15.5
3 Purdue1110191%84.667.1+17.5
4 Michigan State1110191%77.962.7+15.2
5 USC1110191%87.576.9+10.6
6 Iowa119282%79.361.8+17.5
7 Ohio State108280%87.672.9+14.7
8 Indiana118373%85.667.4+18.3
9 Illinois118373%87.871.5+16.3
10 Penn State118373%81.174.5+6.6
11 Washington107370%84.773.4+11.3
12 UCLA107370%76.766.7+10.0
13 Wisconsin107370%85.175.4+9.7
14 Northwestern106460%82.371.1+11.2
15 Minnesota116555%73.468.1+5.3
16 Maryland116555%77.680.5-2.9
17 Oregon105550%76.074.1+1.9
18 Rutgers115645%68.973.1-4.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont1311285%82.871.4+11.5
2 Northern Iowa108280%73.658.0+15.6
3 Illinois State118373%81.267.5+13.7
4 Murray State118373%90.578.5+11.9
5 Bradley117464%76.366.9+9.4
6 Indiana State117464%75.469.0+6.4
7 Valparaiso106460%73.168.3+4.8
8 Drake116555%80.968.5+12.5
9 Southern Illinois116555%80.673.5+7.2
10 Illinois (Chi.)104640%77.974.6+3.3
11 Evansville124833%69.873.4-3.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Northwestern394786
Valparaiso304070
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