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Valparaiso vs NC Wilmington Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 13 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 70-73
40-31 30-42
Position#170
Record6-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game73.4
Allowed / game67.8
vs
Position#17
Record9-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game66.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NC Wilmington winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A08/03
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
66-63
66
63
+3
H05/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
59-107
59
107
-48
A08/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H13/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
68-50
68
50
+18
H16/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
90-75
90
75
+15
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
56-64
56
64
-8
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-55
84
55
+29
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
1H
2H
34-31
31-39
31-25
35-38
26-58
33-49
25-19
43-44
22-30
46-20
39-27
51-48
30-36
26-28
37-17
47-38
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
140.6Avg total
72.6Scored
68.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)73.467.8141.2+5.767%
Season at home (6)73.358.8132.2+14.583%
Season away (3)73.785.7159.3-12.033%
Last 10 (10)72.668.0140.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)80.065.4145.4+14.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)67.378.3145.7-11.033%
vs Similar (17)71.973.7145.6-1.847%
vs Weaker (7)76.165.6141.7+10.657%
This opponent (NC Wilmington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC WilmingtonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mount Olive Trojans
#463
W
106-77
106
77
+29
H04/11
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
77-86
77
86
-9
A11/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
73-60
73
60
+13
H16/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
85-60
85
60
+25
H19/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
81-73
81
73
+8
A22/11
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
70-57
70
57
+13
H27/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
87-57
87
57
+30
H28/11
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
88-62
88
62
+26
H29/11
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
70-69
70
69
+1
H04/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
70-63
70
63
+7
A06/12
NCAA
1H
2H
62-33
44-44
34-43
43-43
39-26
34-34
42-30
43-30
31-27
50-46
27-33
43-24
45-19
42-38
48-30
40-32
31-29
39-40
39-38
31-25
147.1Avg total
80.7Scored
66.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)80.766.4147.1+14.390%
Season at home (7)82.763.1145.9+19.6100%
Season away (3)76.074.0150.0+2.067%
Last 10 (10)80.766.4147.1+14.390%
Last 5 (5)77.061.6138.6+15.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)79.569.5149.0+10.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)77.468.1145.5+9.385%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +2.8+2.81st half: +9.0+9.02nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: +5.3+5.3
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +2.8+2.81st half: +9.0+9.02nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: +5.3+5.3
ValparaisoNC Wilmington
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A08/03
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
31-25
31
25
+6
H05/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
26-58
26
58
-32
A08/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H13/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H16/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
37-17
37
17
+20
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
62.0Avg total
32.4Scored
29.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.933.667.5+0.353%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.531.666.1+2.960%-
Last 30 away (15)33.335.768.9-2.447%-
Last 10 (10)32.429.662.0+2.870%-
Last 5 (5)37.226.663.8+10.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)34.338.072.3-3.767%-
vs Similar (17)32.932.865.7+0.247%-
vs Weaker (7)35.932.067.9+3.957%-
This opponent (NC Wilmington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC WilmingtonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mount Olive Trojans
#463
W
62-33
62
33
+29
H04/11
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A11/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H16/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
42-30
42
30
+12
H19/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A22/11
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
L
27-33
27
33
-6
H27/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
45-19
45
19
+26
H28/11
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
48-30
48
30
+18
H29/11
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H04/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A06/12
NCAA
70.6Avg total
39.8Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.032.371.3+6.777%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.631.072.6+10.688%-
Last 30 away (13)35.633.969.5+1.762%-
Last 10 (10)39.830.870.6+9.080%-
Last 5 (5)38.029.867.8+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)39.528.568.0+11.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)38.132.570.6+5.678%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Valparaiso wins
0
NC Wilmington wins
No previous meetings.
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT
29/11/25HWestern Michigan84-55
26/11/25HSouthern Indiana56-64
20/11/25ACleveland State90-75
16/11/25HBryant University68-50
13/11/25HNicholls State68-63
08/11/25AKentucky59-107
05/11/25HEastern Illinois66-63
08/03/25ABradley65-70
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/25ALouisiana Lafayette70-63
04/12/25HMarshall70-69
29/11/25HGardner Webb88-62
28/11/25HNavy87-57
27/11/25HSE Louisiana70-57
22/11/25ARadford81-73
19/11/25HEast Carolina85-60
16/11/25HUSC Upstate73-60
11/11/25AKent State77-86
04/11/25HMount Olive Trojans106-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW67%
HomeWWLWW83%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %67%83%33%
Points / game73.473.373.7
Allowed / game67.858.885.7
Point differential+5.7+14.5-12.0
Avg total141.2132.2159.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%50%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%33%
NC Wilmington
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW90%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %90%100%67%
Points / game80.782.776.0
Allowed / game66.463.174.0
Point differential+14.3+19.6+2.0
Avg total147.1145.9150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%86%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont119282%82.569.6+12.8
2 Illinois State108280%81.565.9+15.6
3 Northern Iowa97278%73.457.4+16.0
4 Murray State107370%88.076.4+11.6
5 Valparaiso96367%73.467.8+5.7
6 Southern Illinois106460%80.371.5+8.8
7 Bradley106460%75.368.3+7.0
8 Indiana State106460%75.969.1+6.8
9 Drake116555%80.968.5+12.5
10 Illinois (Chi.)94544%77.273.2+4.0
11 Evansville114736%69.072.5-3.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Coastal Athletic Association conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 NC Wilmington109190%80.766.4+14.3
2 William & Mary118373%86.075.4+10.6
3 Stony Brook118373%74.867.1+7.7
4 Hofstra117464%78.666.0+12.6
5 Elon106460%86.579.2+7.3
6 Towson106460%70.368.2+2.1
7 N. Carolina A&T95456%75.175.4-0.3
8 Hampton105550%74.867.6+7.2
9 Monmouth105550%73.572.6+0.9
10 Campbell94544%84.479.1+5.3
11 Northeastern94544%72.173.3-1.2
12 Drexel104640%71.771.3+0.4
13 Charleston104640%73.974.9-1.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso403070
NC Wilmington314273
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