Ohio State faces Marshall on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Ohio State the clear favourite, rating them 96% to win largely because of their 1-1 record, 86.0 points per game and 79.5 allowed, and a home-only record of 1-0 with 89.0 points scored and 65.0 allowed. Marshall also sits at 1-1, 84.0 points per game and 73.0 allowed, and has 2-3 in their last five. Ohio State's last five games include a 89-65 win over Youngstown State at home, a 83-94 loss to Brigham Young away, and a 64-66 loss to TCU at home, while Marshall's recent results show a 76-81 loss to Toledo at home, a 92-65 win over Buffalo at home, and a 78-82 loss to Georgia Southern at home. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a 91-70 result. Pythia projects a 91-70 score, a 160.6 total, and gives Ohio State a 96% chance to win, Marshall 4%. The projected total of 158.5 carries a 55% probability of going over, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. Ohio State's dominant home performance suggests they will control the game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ohio State winWon
96.5%fair 1.04
Best odds1.01
Implied94.7%
Edge+1.8pp
Marshall winLost
3.5%fair 28.56
Best odds26.00
Implied5.3%
Edge-1.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 14:16 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Ohio State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
66.8%
@ 1.36-0.9pp
Under 153.5
33.2%
@ 2.85+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.85
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
54.9%
@ 1.79-2.2pp
Under 158.5
45.1%
@ 2.40+2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.72
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
42.6%
@ 2.06-3.5pp
Under 163.5
57.4%
@ 1.83+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
📊 3. Team Totals
Ohio State total 90Actual: Ohio State under 90
Over 90
54.3%
Under 90
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ohio State total 94 · main lineActual: Ohio State under 94
Over 94
37.7%
@ 1.85-12.5pp
Under 94
62.3%
@ 1.86+12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Ohio State total 98Actual: Ohio State under 98
Over 98
23.2%
Under 98
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall total 63Actual: Marshall over 63
Over 63
75.0%
Under 63
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall total 67 · main lineActual: Marshall over 67
Over 67
60.1%
@ 1.87+10.7pp
Under 67
39.9%
@ 1.85-10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marshall total 71Actual: Marshall over 71
Over 71
43.6%
Under 71
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Ohio State -28Actual: Marshall +28
OHIO -28
no forecast
@ 2.36
MARS +28
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
OHIO
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.22
MARS
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.58
Spread Ohio State -25 · main lineActual: Marshall +25
OHIO -25
37.2%
@ 1.94-12.4pp
MARS +25
62.8%
@ 2.00+12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
OHIO
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.74
MARS
SBO
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread Ohio State -22Actual: Marshall +22
OHIO -22
48.0%
@ 1.54-12.4pp
MARS +22
52.0%
@ 2.35+12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
OHIO
Bet365
1.54
MARS
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Ohio StateMarshall
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Ohio State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Marshall win
OHIO win
no forecast
@ 1.10
MARS win
no forecast
@ 7.10
2nd half Spread Ohio State -11.5 · main lineActual: Marshall +11.5
OHIO -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
MARS +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Ohio State (regulation)
OHIO
no forecast
@ 1.12
Draw
no forecast
@ 28.00
MARS
no forecast
@ 6.80
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Ohio State under 98.5
77.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Ohio State under 97.5
74.4%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Ohio State under 99.5
80.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Ohio State under 96.5
71.1%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Ohio State under 100.5
83.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Ohio State under 101.5
85.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Ohio State (regulation)
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Marshall over 62.5
75.8%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 169.5
71.2%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 151.5
71.2%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Under 169
70.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Marshall over 61.5
78.8%
1.24
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Marshall over 53.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 170
72.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Marshall over 63.5
72.6%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 170.5
73.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Marshall over 51.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Marshall over 55.5
91.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Ohio State over 73.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Ohio State over 74.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Marshall over 59.5
84.2%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 182.5
91.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Ohio State over 75.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
77.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Ohio State win
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Marshall over 58.5
86.5%
1.10
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Ohio State over 76.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Marshall over 57.5
88.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 177.5
85.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Ohio State over 77.5
91.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Ohio State -4.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 137.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Ohio State over 78.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Ohio State over 79.5
87.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Ohio State over 80.5
85.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Marshall under 79.5
84.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Over 142.5
86.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Ohio State over 81.5
83.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Marshall under 75.5
72.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Marshall under 77.5
78.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Ohio State over 82.5
80.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Marshall under 78.5
81.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Ohio State over 83.5
77.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Over 147.5
79.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Ohio State -10.5
83.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Lost
Marshall under 76.5
76.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Ohio State over 84.5
74.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Lost
Ohio State over 85.5
71.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Lost
Ohio State -15.5
70.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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