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Oregon vs Miss. Valley St. Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Projected 89-59
Projected total 148.0
Final 100-66
50-28 50-38
Position#38
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.5
Allowed / game70.0
Oregon 🏆
USA
Vs
99%
■ OREG 99%■ MISS 1%
Pythia win probability
Miss. Valley St.
USA
Position#387
Record0-2
FormLLLLL
Points / game60.5
Allowed / game80.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Oregon hosts Miss. Valley St. on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Oregon the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 season, 92.5 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game, and their 62nd league position. Oregon has won both games they have played, averaging 92.5 points and conceding 70.0, and their home record is also 2-0 with the same averages; they have won three of their last five games and beat East. Washington 98-71, beat Montana 87-69, and lost to Maryland 60-70. Miss. Valley St. has gone 0-2 this season, scoring 60.5 and allowing 80.5, and their road record is 0-2; they have lost all five of their last five games, losing to Washington 64-77, Oklahoma 57-84 and Grambling St. 52-77. The Pythia model gives Oregon a 99% chance to win, Miss. Valley St. 1%, projects a 89-59 score and 148 total points, and assigns a 51% probability that the over 147.5 will hit, with no overtime expected.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oregon winWon
99.2%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miss. Valley St. winLost
0.8%fair 120.20
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OregonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penn State
#298
W
83-72
83
72
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
44-61
44
61
-17
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
62-63
62
63
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
54-80
54
80
-26
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#247
W
87-69
87
69
+18
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#360
W
98-71
98
71
+27
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-32
45-40
17-22
27-39
35-32
36-38
30-33
55-38
36-29
26-34
21-41
33-39
44-30
41-49
12-33
48-37
40-31
47-38
53-39
45-32
143.5Avg total
72.9Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)92.570.0162.5+22.5100%
Season at home (2)92.570.0162.5+22.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.970.6143.5+2.360%
Last 5 (5)76.873.8150.6+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)67.976.9144.8-9.116%
vs Similar (9)75.670.9146.4+4.756%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)92.570.0162.5+22.5100%
This opponent (Miss. Valley St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miss. Valley St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alabama State
#330
L
55-92
55
92
-37
A17/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
62-72
62
72
-10
H20/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
72-71
72
71
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
62-83
62
83
-21
A24/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
70-69
70
69
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
L
64-67
64
67
-3
A04/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A06/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
52-77
52
77
-25
A10/03
NCAA
Oklahoma
#163
L
57-84
57
84
-27
A07/11
NCAA
Washington
#80
L
64-77
64
77
-13
A10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
25-42
30-50
34-40
28-32
36-34
36-37
36-38
26-45
35-39
35-30
23-38
41-29
41-36
36-49
19-34
33-43
22-38
35-46
33-43
31-34
141.2Avg total
63.5Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)60.580.5141.0-20.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)60.580.5141.0-20.00%
Last 10 (10)63.577.7141.2-14.220%
Last 5 (5)62.878.0140.8-15.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)63.381.9145.1-18.67%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Oregon) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
58.6%
@ 1.57-3.0pp
Under 144.5
41.4%
@ 2.60+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.25
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
46.2%
@ 1.91-3.5pp
Under 149.5
53.8%
@ 1.90+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
34.2%
@ 2.72-0.6pp
Under 154.5
65.8%
@ 1.45+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.39

📊 3. Team Totals

Oregon total 89Actual: Oregon over 89
Over 89
49.9%
Under 89
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon total 93 · main lineActual: Oregon over 93
Over 93
33.6%
@ 1.87-16.1pp
Under 93
66.4%
@ 1.85+16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Oregon total 97Actual: Oregon over 97
Over 97
20.1%
Under 97
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miss. Valley St. total 50.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 50.5
Over 50.5
no forecast
@ 1.31
Under 50.5
no forecast
@ 4.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.95
Miss. Valley St. total 55 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 55
Over 55
66.2%
@ 1.85+16.2pp
Under 55
33.8%
@ 1.85-16.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Miss. Valley St. total 59Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 59
Over 59
49.9%
Under 59
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Oregon -37Actual: Miss. Valley St. +37
OREG -37
no forecast
@ 2.22
MISS +37
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathon Be
2.01
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.83
MISS
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.72
Pinnacle
1.68
Spread Oregon -34 · main linePush
OREG -34
no forecast
@ 1.90
MISS +34
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.60
MISS
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Oregon -31Actual: Oregon -31
OREG -31
no forecast
@ 1.40
MISS +31
no forecast
@ 2.75
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Bet365
1.40
MISS
Bet365
2.75

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.4+0.41st half: -7.8-7.82nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: -6.4-6.4
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.4+0.41st half: -7.8-7.82nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: -6.4-6.4
OregonMiss. Valley St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
OregonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penn State
#298
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H14/02
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
17-22
17
22
-5
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
21-41
21
41
-20
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
12-33
12
33
-21
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#247
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#360
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/11
NCAA
64.8Avg total
32.6Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)34.035.069.0-1.040%43%
Last 30 at home (19)35.634.169.7+1.542%47%
Last 30 away (11)31.336.567.8-5.336%36%
Last 10 (10)32.632.264.8+0.460%30%
Last 5 (5)34.034.868.8-0.860%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)31.835.166.9-3.221%37%
vs Similar (9)35.834.970.7+0.967%44%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)46.535.081.5+11.5100%100%
This opponent (Miss. Valley St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miss. Valley St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alabama State
#330
L
25-42
25
42
-17
A17/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H20/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A24/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A28/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
L
23-38
23
38
-15
A04/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A06/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
19-34
19
34
-15
A10/03
NCAA
Oklahoma
#163
L
22-38
22
38
-16
A07/11
NCAA
Washington
#80
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A10/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
30.4Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)29.039.368.4-10.313%47%
Last 30 at home (10)30.137.367.4-7.210%40%
Last 30 away (20)28.540.468.8-11.915%50%
Last 10 (10)30.438.268.6-7.820%50%
Last 5 (5)27.637.865.4-10.220%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)29.039.368.4-10.313%47%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Oregon) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Oregon win
OREG win
no forecast
@ 1.02
MISS win
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half Spread Oregon -18.5 · main lineActual: Oregon -18.5
OREG -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.96
MISS +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.96
Oregon 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Oregon over 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Miss. Valley St. 1st half total 26 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 26
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half: OREG + total 70.5
OREG & over
no forecast
@ 1.80
OREG & under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: Draw + total 70.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 66.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 81.00
1st half: MISS + total 70.5
MISS & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
MISS & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half Over/Under 72Actual: Over 72
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Oregon -19.5Actual: Oregon -19.5
OREG -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
MISS +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Oregon -17.5Actual: Oregon -17.5
OREG -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
MISS +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Oregon -20.5Actual: Oregon -20.5
OREG -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
MISS +20.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Oregon -16.5Actual: Oregon -16.5
OREG -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
MISS +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Oregon (regulation)
OREG
no forecast
@ 1.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
MISS
no forecast
@ 41.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
OREG win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
MISS win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: OREG leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Oregon under 94.571.2%1.60
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.50		--+15.8ppLost
Oregon under 96.577.6%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+13.8ppLost
Oregon under 95.574.5%1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50		--+13.3ppLost
Oregon under 97.580.5%1.34
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.30		--+13.0ppLost
Oregon under 98.583.2%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+12.0ppLost
Oregon under 99.585.6%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+11.5ppLost
Miss. Valley St. over 52.574.3%1.39
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.27		--+9.8ppWon
Miss. Valley St. over 53.571.0%1.49
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.40		--+8.5ppWon
Oregon under 100.587.7%1.17
1xBet
1.17		----+8.3ppWon
Miss. Valley St. over 51.577.5%1.29
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25		--+3.8ppWon
Oregon over 72.595.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.3ppWon
Under 174.595.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.3ppWon
Oregon over 73.594.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.8ppWon
Under 15771.8%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+1.8ppLost
Oregon over 74.592.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+1.6ppWon
Under 169.591.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.4ppWon
Under 157.572.4%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+1.0ppLost
Under 156.570.3%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+0.8ppLost
Under 159.576.4%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+0.2ppLost
Oregon over 75.591.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+0.2ppWon
Over 124.592.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.1ppWon
Oregon over 76.589.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----0.0ppWon
Under 164.584.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----0.7ppLost
Oregon over 77.587.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.7ppWon
Over 129.587.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.1ppWon
Oregon over 78.585.5%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----2.4ppWon
Miss. Valley St. under 71.589.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.7ppWon
Oregon -15.589.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----3.3ppWon
Oregon over 80.580.4%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----3.9ppWon
Oregon over 79.583.1%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----4.0ppWon
Miss. Valley St. under 69.585.5%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----4.7ppWon
Oregon over 82.574.4%1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16		----5.0ppWon
Miss. Valley St. under 66.577.6%1.12
1xBet
1.12		-----5.5ppWon
Over 134.580.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----5.5ppWon
Over 139.570.2%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----6.0ppWon
Oregon over 81.577.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----6.3ppWon
Miss. Valley St. under 67.580.4%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----7.5ppWon
Oregon over 83.571.0%1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17		----8.1ppWon
Miss. Valley St. under 65.574.4%1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11		----8.2ppLost
Oregon -20.579.8%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----9.2ppWon
Miss. Valley St. under 64.571.1%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----10.3ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Oregon wins
0
Miss. Valley St. wins
No previous meetings.
Oregonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HEast. Washington98-71
03/11/26HMontana87-69
10/03/26HMaryland60-70
08/03/26HWashington85-79
04/03/26AIllinois54-80
28/02/26ANorthwestern62-63
26/02/26HWisconsin85-71
21/02/26AUSC71-70
18/02/26HMinnesota44-61
14/02/26HPenn State83-72
Miss. Valley St.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26AWashington64-77
07/11/26AOklahoma57-84
10/03/26AGrambling St.52-77
06/03/26AJackson State77-85
04/03/26AAlcorn State64-67
28/02/26AArkansas-Pine Bluff70-69
24/02/26AGrambling St.62-83
21/02/26HTexas Southern72-71
20/02/26HPrairie View A&M62-72
17/02/26AAlabama State55-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oregon
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game92.592.5-
Allowed / game70.070.0-
Point differential+22.5+22.5-
Avg total162.5162.5-
Over 149.5100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Miss. Valley St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
Home--
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %0%-0%
Points / game60.5-60.5
Allowed / game80.5-80.5
Point differential-20.0--20.0
Avg total141.0-141.0
Over 149.50%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Rutgers220100%91.059.0+32.0
3 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
4 Michigan State330100%88.764.3+24.3
5 Oregon220100%92.570.0+22.5
6 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
7 Indiana330100%88.768.7+20.0
8 USC220100%94.074.5+19.5
9 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
10 Minnesota330100%74.757.7+17.0
11 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
12 Illinois32167%103.366.3+37.0
13 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
14 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
17 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
18 Penn State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs32167%80.062.7+17.3
2 Prairie View A&M42250%78.880.2-1.5
3 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
4 Alabama State31233%69.778.7-9.0
5 Texas Southern31233%76.091.0-15.0
6 Florida A&M41325%77.880.8-3.0
7 Jackson State41325%66.585.8-19.2
8 Bethune-Cookman4040%71.085.5-14.5
9 Miss. Valley St.2020%60.580.5-20.0
10 Southern Univ.4040%60.287.5-27.2
11 Alcorn State3030%66.095.7-29.7
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff3030%50.3107.0-56.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Oregon5050100
Miss. Valley St.283866
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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