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Pacific vs Air Force Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 85-60
Projected total 144.3
Scheduled
Position#149
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game74.7
Allowed / game53.7
Pacific
USA
Vs
98%
■ PACI 98%■ AIR 2%
Pythia win probability
Air Force
USA
Position#122
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game93.5
Allowed / game83.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Pacific hosts Air Force on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Pacific as the clear favourite, assigning a 99% chance of victory and projecting an 88-60 win that reflects Pacific's 2-1 record, 74.7 points scored and 53.7 points allowed per game, and a league position of 139; the model also notes Pacific's dominant home performance, 1-0 with 102.0 points per game and 47.0 allowed. Air Force, meanwhile, holds a 3-1 record, 93.5 points scored and 83.8 allowed per game, and a league position of 114, but their single road outing was a 71.0-102.0 loss, and they have not yet beaten a road opponent. In their only prior meeting, Pacific won 80-65 on 3 December 2025, a result that the model echoes in its 99% home-win probability. The spread is set at -12.5 for Pacific, with a 91% probability that they will cover, while the over-under line of 161.5 carries a 20% chance of an over; overtime is not expected.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pacific win
98.0%fair 1.02
Best odds1.15
Implied82.6%
Edge+15.5pp
Air Force win
2.0%fair 50.22
Best odds6.50
Implied17.4%
Edge-15.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PacificUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#234
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H12/02
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
61-72
61
72
-11
H15/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
62-71
62
71
-9
A22/02
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
61-72
61
72
-11
H28/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H08/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
68-76
68
76
-8
A09/03
NCAA
Bethesda
#346
W
102-47
102
47
+55
H04/11
NCAA
Bradley
#252
W
63-52
63
52
+11
A08/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#287
L
59-62
59
62
-3
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
25-31
40-28
30-28
31-44
40-51
30-36
29-29
33-42
35-42
26-30
32-29
29-29
38-45
30-31
55-25
47-22
29-19
34-33
34-33
25-29
132.8Avg total
67.2Scored
65.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)74.753.7128.3+21.067%
Season at home (1)102.047.0149.0+55.0100%
Season away (2)61.057.0118.0+4.050%
Last 10 (10)67.265.6132.8+1.640%
Last 5 (5)70.659.0129.6+11.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)62.278.0140.2-15.80%
vs Similar (7)65.368.1133.4-2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)78.563.2141.6+15.376%
This opponent (Air Force) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Air ForceUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
L
66-91
66
91
-25
H21/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
80-86
80
86
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A28/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
60-86
60
86
-26
H04/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
59-74
59
74
-15
A08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
45-80
45
80
-35
A11/03
NCAA
Wright State
#41
L
71-102
71
102
-31
A03/11
NCAA
Calumet College
#484
W
107-58
107
58
+49
H06/11
NCAA
Idaho State
#392
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H08/11
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#117
W
107-93
107
93
+14
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-34
35-57
37-42
43-44
25-35
37-31
24-43
36-43
25-32
34-42
10-39
35-41
31-60
40-42
51-28
56-30
41-42
48-40
50-35
57-58
156.4Avg total
74.6Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.583.8177.2+9.875%
Season at home (3)101.077.7178.7+23.3100%
Season away (1)71.0102.0173.0-31.00%
Last 10 (10)74.681.8156.4-7.230%
Last 5 (5)83.883.0166.8+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)61.082.4143.4-21.44%
vs Similar (1)107.093.0200.0+14.0100%
vs Weaker (1)89.082.0171.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Pacific) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156.5
Over 156.5
22.4%
@ 1.39-46.0pp
Under 156.5
77.6%
@ 3.15+46.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.75
Over/Under 161.5 · main line
Over 161.5
14.3%
@ 1.83-39.2pp
Under 161.5
85.7%
@ 2.20+39.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.67
Marathon Be
1.64
Under
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
8.4%
@ 2.18-37.2pp
Under 166.5
91.6%
@ 1.81+37.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Be
1.96
SBO
1.88
Under
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.74
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.60

📊 3. Team Totals

Pacific total 83.5
Over 83.5
54.5%
@ 1.38-13.0pp
Under 83.5
45.5%
@ 3.05+13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.62
Pacific total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
38.5%
@ 1.85-12.1pp
Under 87.5
61.5%
@ 1.91+12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Pacific total 91.5
Over 91.5
24.3%
@ 2.47-14.5pp
Under 91.5
75.7%
@ 1.57+14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.42
Air Force total 70.5
Over 70.5
13.9%
@ 1.33-54.2pp
Under 70.5
86.1%
@ 2.85+54.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.85
Air Force total 74.5 · main line
Over 74.5
7.0%
@ 1.85-43.2pp
Under 74.5
93.0%
@ 2.02+43.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Air Force total 78.5
Over 78.5
3.2%
@ 2.30-36.3pp
Under 78.5
96.8%
@ 1.50+36.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.50

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Pacific -15.5
PACI -15.5
79.6%
@ 2.35+40.1pp
AIR +15.5
20.4%
@ 1.54-40.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PACI
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
AIR
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
Spread Pacific -12.5 · main line
PACI -12.5
86.0%
@ 1.95+37.7pp
AIR +12.5
14.0%
@ 1.90-37.7pp
Best 5 market prices
PACI
Betano
1.95
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
AIR
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Spread Pacific -9.5
PACI -9.5
90.8%
@ 1.60+32.1pp
AIR +9.5
9.2%
@ 2.30-32.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PACI
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.55
AIR
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.18

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: -6.5-6.52nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: -0.7-0.7
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: -6.5-6.52nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: -0.7-0.7
PacificAir Force
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
PacificLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#234
L
25-31
25
31
-6
H12/02
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H15/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A19/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A22/02
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H28/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H08/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A09/03
NCAA
Bethesda
#346
W
55-25
55
25
+30
H04/11
NCAA
Bradley
#252
W
29-19
29
19
+10
A08/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#287
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A12/11
NCAA
67.9Avg total
34.7Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)35.232.367.5+2.953%30%
Last 30 at home (14)37.229.867.0+7.464%29%
Last 30 away (16)33.434.567.9-1.144%31%
Last 10 (10)34.733.267.9+1.550%30%
Last 5 (5)37.630.267.8+7.480%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)30.836.267.0-5.317%33%
vs Similar (7)32.132.664.7-0.443%14%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)37.930.868.8+7.171%35%
This opponent (Air Force) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Air ForceLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H21/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H25/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
25-35
25
35
-10
A28/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
24-43
24
43
-19
H04/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
25-32
25
32
-7
A08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
10-39
10
39
-29
A11/03
NCAA
Wright State
#41
L
31-60
31
60
-29
A03/11
NCAA
Calumet College
#484
W
51-28
51
28
+23
H06/11
NCAA
Idaho State
#392
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H08/11
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#117
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H11/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
32.5Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)29.540.069.5-10.510%33%
Last 30 at home (17)33.240.173.3-6.812%41%
Last 30 away (13)24.739.964.6-15.28%23%
Last 10 (10)32.539.071.5-6.520%50%
Last 5 (5)36.640.877.4-4.240%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)27.640.668.1-13.04%26%
vs Similar (1)50.035.085.0+15.0100%100%
vs Weaker (1)41.042.083.0-1.00%100%
This opponent (Pacific) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
PACI win
no forecast
@ 1.25
AIR win
no forecast
@ 4.05
1st half Spread Pacific -6 · main line
PACI -6
no forecast
@ 1.85
AIR +6
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 77.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Pacific 1st half total 43 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Air Force 1st half total 36 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 79
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Pacific -7
PACI -7
no forecast
@ 1.84
AIR +7
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Spread Pacific -4.5
PACI -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
AIR +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Over/Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half Spread Pacific -8.5
PACI -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
AIR +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Pacific -3.5
PACI -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
AIR +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Over/Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.52
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Pacific -9.5
PACI -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
AIR +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
PACI
no forecast
@ 1.29
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
AIR
no forecast
@ 4.11

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PACI win + total 161.5
🔒 Pro
AIR win + total 161.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PACI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: AIR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Air Force under 67.578.4%4.50
Bet365
4.50		----+57.9pp
Air Force under 68.581.2%3.90
Bet365
3.90		----+57.4pp
Under 15779.0%3.05
Bet365
3.05		----+48.5pp
Pacific -1873.6%3.05
Bet365
3.05		----+43.0pp
Pacific under 9483.7%1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87		----+34.2pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 126 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pacific wins
0
Air Force wins
DateGameScore
04/12/25Air Force v Pacific65-80
Pacificlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ALong Beach State59-62
08/11/26ABradley63-52
04/11/26HBethesda102-47
09/03/26ASanta Clara68-76
08/03/26HSeattle61-58
28/02/26HSan Francisco61-72
22/02/26AGonzaga62-71
19/02/26AWashington State70-87
15/02/26HSt. Marys (CA)61-72
12/02/26HLoyola Marymount65-59
Air Forcelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HLoyola Chicago107-93
08/11/26HIdaho State89-82
06/11/26HCalumet College107-58
03/11/26AWright State71-102
11/03/26ANevada45-80
08/03/26ANevada59-74
04/03/26HGrand Canyon60-86
28/02/26AWyoming62-66
25/02/26HSan Jose State80-86
21/02/26HUNLV66-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pacific
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game74.7102.061.0
Allowed / game53.747.057.0
Point differential+21.0+55.0+4.0
Avg total128.3149.0118.0
Over 161.50%0%0%
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Air Force
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game93.5101.071.0
Allowed / game83.877.7102.0
Point differential+9.8+23.3-31.0
Avg total177.2178.7173.0
Over 161.5100%100%100%
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oregon State440100%93.269.5+23.8
2 Santa Clara550100%86.675.0+11.6
3 St. Marys (CA)43175%93.576.5+17.0
4 San Diego Toreros43175%84.275.5+8.8
5 San Francisco43175%71.568.5+3.0
6 Pacific32167%74.753.7+21.0
7 Pepperdine42250%96.070.0+26.0
8 Portland52340%87.093.6-6.6
9 Gonzaga31233%87.075.7+11.3
10 Seattle31233%70.373.3-3.0
11 Loyola Marymount41325%84.574.8+9.8
12 Washington State41325%81.579.5+2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State330100%114.371.0+43.3
2 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
3 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
4 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
5 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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