Penn State faces Canisius on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates the Nittany Lions as the clear favourite with a 75% chance of victory, reflecting their superior season numbers and recent dominance, while Canisius has a 25% chance. The Lions have won 1 of their last 5 games, losing to Northwestern 66-76 away on 10 March 2026, to Rutgers 62-74 away on 8 March 2026, and to Ohio State 62-94 at home on 4 March 2026, whereas the Golden Griffins have won 2 of their last 5, beating Merrimack Warriors 67-62 at home on 27 February 2026, losing to Quinnipiac 63-67 at home on 1 March 2026, and losing to Mount St. Mary's 47-68 away on 22 February 2026. In their only prior meeting, Penn State defeated Canisius 97-67 on 18 December 2022. Pythia projects a 76-68 score, 143.9 total points, and a 10% probability that Penn State will cover the home line of -22.5; the over on the 152.5 line has a 30% chance, and the game has a 4% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penn State winWon
75.0%fair 1.33
Best odds1.02
Implied95.2%
Edge-20.2pp
Canisius winLost
25.0%fair 3.99
Best odds21.00
Implied4.8%
Edge+20.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Penn State total 87.5 · main lineActual: Penn State over 87.5
Over 87.5
12.1%
@ 1.85-38.3pp
Under 87.5
87.9%
@ 1.91+38.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Penn State total 91.5Actual: Penn State over 91.5
Over 91.5
5.9%
@ 2.47-30.6pp
Under 91.5
94.1%
@ 1.42+30.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.42
Canisius total 61Actual: Canisius under 61
Over 61
76.3%
Under 61
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Canisius total 65 · main lineActual: Canisius under 65
Over 65
62.0%
@ 1.86+12.2pp
Under 65
38.0%
@ 1.85-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Canisius total 69Actual: Canisius under 69
Over 69
46.0%
Under 69
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Penn State -25.5Actual: Penn State -25.5
PENN -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
CANI +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
CANI
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Spread Penn State -22.5 · main lineActual: Penn State -22.5
PENN -22.5
9.9%
@ 1.90-40.4pp
CANI +22.5
90.1%
@ 1.93+40.4pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
CANI
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Penn State -19.5Actual: Penn State -19.5
PENN -19.5
14.8%
@ 1.67-44.9pp
CANI +19.5
85.2%
@ 2.30+44.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
CANI
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Penn StateCanisius
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
PSPenn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Penn State win
PENN win
no forecast
@ 1.13
CANI win
no forecast
@ 6.20
2nd half Spread Penn State -10.5 · main lineActual: Penn State -10.5
PENN -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
CANI +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Penn State (regulation)
PENN
no forecast
@ 1.15
Draw
no forecast
@ 25.00
CANI
no forecast
@ 6.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Canisius +15
75.2%
3.60
Bet365
3.60
-
-
-
-
+49.3pp
Lost
Canisius +16
77.9%
3.20
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
-
+48.9pp
Lost
Canisius +17
80.4%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+48.0pp
Lost
Canisius +18
82.8%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+47.3pp
Lost
Canisius +15.5
75.9%
3.22
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.15
-
-
-
+47.1pp
Lost
Canisius +16.5
78.5%
2.95
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.90
-
-
-
+47.1pp
Lost
Canisius +14
72.3%
3.70
Bet365
3.70
-
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
Canisius +17.5
80.9%
2.69
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.67
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Canisius +19
84.9%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+46.1pp
Lost
Canisius +18.5
83.1%
2.49
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+45.7pp
Lost
Canisius +14.5
73.1%
3.40
Bet365
3.70
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+45.6pp
Lost
Canisius +13.5
70.1%
3.75
Bet365
3.75
-
-
-
-
+45.4pp
Lost
Canisius +20
86.8%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+45.2pp
Lost
Canisius +19.5
85.2%
2.22
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.07
-
-
+44.9pp
Lost
Canisius +21
88.5%
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
-
+43.4pp
Lost
Canisius +20.5
87.0%
2.08
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
1.96
-
-
+43.4pp
Lost
Penn State under 83.5
78.0%
2.55
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
-
+42.6pp
Lost
Canisius +22
90.0%
1.94
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
-
-
+42.5pp
Lost
Penn State under 82.5
74.9%
2.80
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
+42.3pp
Lost
Penn State under 84.5
80.8%
2.33
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+41.5pp
Lost
Penn State under 85.5
83.4%
2.12
Betano
2.12
-
-
-
-
+40.9pp
Lost
Canisius +23
91.3%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
-
+40.7pp
Lost
Canisius +22.5
90.1%
1.88
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+40.4pp
Lost
Penn State under 81.5
71.7%
2.87
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
-
+40.2pp
Lost
Penn State under 86.5
85.8%
2.02
Betano
2.02
-
-
-
-
+40.1pp
Lost
Canisius +21.5
88.7%
1.92
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+39.0pp
Lost
Canisius +24
92.5%
1.71
Bet365
1.71
-
-
-
-
+38.6pp
Lost
Canisius +23.5
91.5%
1.75
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
1xBet
1.67
-
+38.6pp
Lost
Penn State under 87.5
87.9%
1.87
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
+38.3pp
Lost
Penn State under 87
87.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+37.7pp
Lost
Canisius +24.5
92.6%
1.66
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
1xBet
1.64
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
Penn State under 88.5
89.8%
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
-
+36.7pp
Lost
Canisius +25
93.6%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+35.7pp
Lost
Penn State under 89.5
91.4%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+34.7pp
Lost
Penn State under 90.5
92.9%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Lost
Penn State under 91.5
94.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Under 153.5
72.4%
1.79
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
Bet365
1.74
+20.9pp
Lost
Under 153
71.9%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Under 152.5
70.4%
1.86
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
+20.4pp
Lost
Under 154.5
74.4%
1.69
1xBet
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
+19.3pp
Won
Under 154
73.9%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Push
Under 155
75.8%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Won
Under 155.5
76.3%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Under 156
77.7%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Under 156.5
78.1%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Under 157
79.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Under 157.5
79.8%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Under 158
81.1%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Under 158.5
81.4%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Under 159
82.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
83.0%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Under 160
84.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Under 160.5
84.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Canisius over 61.5
73.9%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Under 162.5
87.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Canisius over 62.5
70.6%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Canisius over 59.5
79.9%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Canisius over 60.5
77.0%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Under 167.5
92.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Under 172.5
95.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Canisius over 57.5
85.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
Canisius over 58.5
82.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
Canisius over 55.5
89.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Canisius over 56.5
87.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Canisius under 82.5
91.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Canisius under 80.5
88.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Canisius under 78.5
84.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Canisius under 76.5
79.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 127.5
84.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Canisius under 74.5
73.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Over 132.5
75.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Won
Penn State over 68.5
76.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.3pp
Won
Penn State (regulation)
72.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-17.6pp
Won
Penn State win
75.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-20.2pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.