Purdue faces Gonzaga on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Purdue as the favourite and projecting a 58% chance of victory versus 42% for Gonzaga, a 76-73 scoreline and 148.7 total points; the home team's 5.0-point line carries a 74% probability of covering while the 153.5-point total has a 38% over probability and a 5% chance of overtime. Purdue has a 5-game stretch of 4 wins and 1 loss, including a 79-77 home win over Texas, a 79-69 home win over Miami (FL) and a 64-79 away loss to Arizona, whereas Gonzaga's last five feature a 68-74 home loss to Texas, a 73-64 home win over Kennesaw State and a 79-68 home win over Santa Clara. In all meetings the two teams have played three times, Purdue winning each encounter, most recently 80-68 on 29 March 2024. The projected points suggest a close contest, with Purdue's 76 points slightly ahead of Gonzaga's 73, and the spread and total lines reflecting the model's assessment of a tight, high-stakes game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Purdue winWon
58.2%fair 1.72
Best odds2.95
Implied33.9%
Edge+24.3pp
Gonzaga winLost
41.8%fair 2.39
Best odds1.45
Implied66.1%
Edge-24.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Purdue) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
49.7%
@ 1.44-15.2pp
Under 148.5
50.3%
@ 2.70+15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
37.9%
@ 1.90-12.6pp
Under 153.5
62.1%
@ 1.95+12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
27.2%
@ 2.40-12.2pp
Under 158.5
72.8%
@ 1.53+12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Purdue total 70.5Actual: Purdue over 70.5
Over 70.5
68.7%
@ 1.37+2.8pp
Under 70.5
31.3%
@ 2.65-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.65
Purdue total 74.5 · main lineActual: Purdue over 74.5
Over 74.5
53.8%
@ 1.85+3.8pp
Under 74.5
46.2%
@ 1.91-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Purdue total 78.5Actual: Purdue under 78.5
Over 78.5
38.4%
@ 2.50+1.4pp
Under 78.5
61.6%
@ 1.50-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42
Gonzaga total 75.5Actual: Gonzaga under 75.5
Over 75.5
40.8%
@ 1.40-26.1pp
Under 75.5
59.2%
@ 3.00+26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.57
Gonzaga total 79.5 · main lineActual: Gonzaga under 79.5
Over 79.5
26.9%
@ 1.85-23.1pp
Under 79.5
73.1%
@ 1.87+23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Gonzaga total 83.5Actual: Gonzaga under 83.5
Over 83.5
16.0%
@ 2.62-19.5pp
Under 83.5
84.0%
@ 1.50+19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Purdue +2Actual: Purdue +2
PURD +2
63.5%
@ 2.50+26.0pp
GONZ -2
36.5%
@ 1.50-26.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PURD
Bet365
2.50
GONZ
Bet365
1.50
Spread Purdue +5 · main lineActual: Purdue +5
PURD +5
73.6%
@ 1.97+24.8pp
GONZ -5
26.4%
@ 1.88-24.8pp
Best 5 market prices
PURD
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
GONZ
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Spread Purdue +8Actual: Purdue +8
PURD +8
81.9%
@ 1.55+22.2pp
GONZ -8
18.1%
@ 2.30-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
PURD
Bet365
1.55
GONZ
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
PurdueGonzaga
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Purdue +4
70.4%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Won
Gonzaga under 80
75.4%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Purdue +4.5
71.3%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.07
SBO
2.00
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
+25.0pp
Won
Purdue +5
73.6%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+24.8pp
Won
Gonzaga under 80.5
76.2%
1.79
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.72
+24.7pp
Won
Purdue +5.5
74.5%
1.83
Bet365
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.81
+23.2pp
Won
Gonzaga under 79.5
73.1%
1.86
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+23.1pp
Won
Purdue +6
76.7%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.79
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
SBO
1.74
-
+23.0pp
Won
Gonzaga under 81.5
79.0%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Gonzaga under 79
72.2%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Purdue +8
81.9%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Purdue +7
79.4%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Purdue +7.5
80.0%
1.58
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Purdue +9
84.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Purdue +6.5
77.3%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.69
Betano
1.67
-
+21.7pp
Won
Gonzaga under 82.5
81.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Purdue +8.5
82.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Purdue +10
86.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Purdue +9.5
84.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Gonzaga under 83.5
84.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Purdue +10.5
86.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Gonzaga under 85.5
88.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Purdue +11
88.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Gonzaga under 84.5
86.2%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Purdue +12
89.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Purdue +11.5
88.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Purdue +12.5
89.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Purdue +13
91.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Purdue +13.5
91.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Gonzaga under 86.5
89.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.26
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Purdue +15.5
93.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Under 157
70.2%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 163.5
81.6%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Under 157.5
70.8%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 158
72.3%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Under 158.5
72.8%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
74.7%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Gonzaga under 89.5
94.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 159
74.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Under 160
76.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Under 160.5
76.6%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Under 163
81.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 162.5
80.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Under 161
78.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
78.3%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Under 162
79.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Purdue +20.5
97.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 165.5
84.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 170.5
90.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 175.5
94.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 168.5
88.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.7%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+4.9pp
-
Under 173.5
92.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Purdue under 91.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Purdue over 65.5
83.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Purdue over 69.5
72.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Purdue over 67.5
78.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Purdue over 64.5
85.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Purdue over 63.5
87.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Purdue over 68.5
75.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Purdue over 62.5
89.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Purdue under 89.5
91.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Purdue under 81.5
72.2%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Purdue over 66.5
81.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Purdue under 84.5
81.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Purdue under 87.5
87.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Gonzaga +19.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Purdue under 83.5
78.3%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Purdue under 85.5
83.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 128.5
88.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Gonzaga over 60.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Gonzaga +14.5
85.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 130.5
86.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Gonzaga over 61.5
87.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Gonzaga over 62.5
84.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
81.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Gonzaga over 63.5
82.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
78.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Gonzaga over 64.5
79.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Over 138.5
72.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Gonzaga over 65.5
77.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Gonzaga +9.5
73.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Gonzaga over 66.5
73.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.8pp
Won
Gonzaga over 67.5
70.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-17.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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