PythiaBasketballBETA
Every NBA team has played about 12 games. That is enough to get excited and not enough to know. A 9-2 team can be very good, or it can have won a lot of close games.
So we asked Pythia, our forecasting model, to rate every one of the 1,002 games left on the schedule, then played the rest of the season 20,000 times. Below is each team's projected record, its chance of a top-6 seed (straight into the playoffs) and of a top-10 place (the play-in or better). We update it every week.
| # | Team | Now | Projected | Top 6 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Celtics | 10-2 | 63-19 59 to 67 wins | 100% | 100% |
| 2 |  Detroit Pistons | 8-3 | 55-27 51 to 60 wins | >99% | 100% |
| 3 |  New York Knicks | 6-5 | 48-34 42 to 53 wins | 85% | 100% |
| 4 |  Atlanta Hawks | 7-5 | 47-35 42 to 52 wins | 81% | >99% |
| 5 | Philadelphia 76ers | 10-3 | 46-36 41 to 51 wins | 77% | >99% |
| 6 |  Cleveland Cavaliers | 6-6 | 45-37 40 to 50 wins | 64% | >99% |
| 7 |  Toronto Raptors | 5-7 | 45-37 40 to 50 wins | 64% | >99% |
| 8 |  Orlando Magic | 4-7 | 40-42 34 to 45 wins | 16% | 98% |
| 9 |  Miami Heat | 5-6 | 39-43 34 to 44 wins | 13% | 97% |
| 10 |  Indiana Pacers | 4-8 | 31-51 26 to 35 wins | <1% | 41% |
| 11 |  Brooklyn Nets | 3-8 | 30-52 25 to 35 wins | <1% | 40% |
| 12 |  Washington Wizards | 4-9 | 27-55 22 to 32 wins | 0% | 12% |
| 13 |  Charlotte Hornets | 4-8 | 26-56 21 to 31 wins | 0% | 8% |
| 14 |  Chicago Bulls | 1-9 | 25-57 20 to 29 wins | 0% | 4% |
| 15 |  Milwaukee Bucks | 1-11 | 19-63 15 to 24 wins | 0% | <1% |
| # | Team | Now | Projected | Top 6 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Antonio Spurs | 10-2 | 59-23 54 to 64 wins | 99% | 100% |
| 2 |  Houston Rockets | 9-3 | 57-25 52 to 62 wins | 97% | 100% |
| 3 |  Minnesota Timberwolves | 9-3 | 57-25 52 to 62 wins | 96% | 100% |
| 4 |  Oklahoma City Thunder | 8-4 | 53-29 48 to 58 wins | 78% | >99% |
| 5 |  Los Angeles Lakers | 11-2 | 53-29 48 to 57 wins | 76% | >99% |
| 6 |  Golden State Warriors | 8-4 | 52-30 47 to 57 wins | 70% | >99% |
| 7 |  Portland Trail Blazers | 8-3 | 51-31 46 to 56 wins | 65% | >99% |
| 8 |  Denver Nuggets | 6-4 | 47-35 42 to 52 wins | 19% | 99% |
| 9 |  Memphis Grizzlies | 7-4 | 41-41 36 to 46 wins | 1% | 84% |
| 10 |  Dallas Mavericks | 7-5 | 37-45 32 to 42 wins | <1% | 52% |
| 11 |  Phoenix Suns | 5-6 | 37-45 32 to 42 wins | <1% | 48% |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Clippers | 2-8 | 33-49 28 to 38 wins | <1% | 17% |
| 13 |  New Orleans Pelicans | 4-8 | 27-55 22 to 32 wins | 0% | 1% |
| 14 |  Utah Jazz | 1-11 | 22-60 18 to 27 wins | 0% | <1% |
| 15 |  Sacramento Kings | 1-10 | 18-64 14 to 23 wins | 0% | 0% |
A good record after a few weeks is a mix of a good team, close games going your way and an easy schedule. Pythia looks past the record: how well a team has really played, last season, and who is still to come.
None of these teams is projected to collapse. Philadelphia 76ers still have a >99% chance of a top-10 place. They are just not as good as their record yet.
The top seed in each conference: Boston Celtics in the East (92%), San Antonio Spurs in the West (44%).
26 teams started with a record clearly better than their point margin, by winning close games. They won 66% of their first 12, then 53% of the rest. The 29 teams that lost the close ones went from 31% to 45%.
A record after a few weeks is real information. How a team wins, by a lot or by a basket, tells you how much of it will last.
Each call is Pythia's last forecast before tip-off, saved and never changed after the game. The same forecasts are on every game page, and we publish how they do every day, good weeks and bad. See how we score ourselves.
Every NBA game has its own page on PythiaBasketball with Pythia's forecast, both teams' form and their home and away record. They are free to read. NBA · Today's games.
How we did it. Regular-season games from opening night (20 October 2026); preseason is left out. Pythia rated every remaining game on the schedule from what it knows on 13 November 2026: the teams' results, scoring and schedule. We then played each game 20,000 times with those chances. A few games are not on the schedule yet (the NBA Cup weeks in December); they are played at the team's average chance. Ties in the standings are broken at random. Everything here is free to use with a link.
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