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San Jose State vs Alabama State Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 85-70
Projected total 154.8
Scheduled
Position#278
Record1-2
FormWLWLL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game81.7
San Jose State
USA
Vs
90%
■ SAN 90%■ ALAB 10%
Pythia win probability
Alabama State
USA
Position#289
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game69.7
Allowed / game78.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · San Jose State v Alabama State
15 Nov 2026
SAN v ALAB
upcoming
15 Nov 2022
SAN 70
ALAB57
Sections
Game preview & prediction

San Jose State faces Alabama State on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model clearly favouring the Spartans at 90% versus 10% for the Hornets, a result driven by San Jose State's 1-2 record, 83.0 points per game and 81.7 allowed, and their 1-1 home record of 85.0 points scored and 77.0 allowed; Alabama State also sits 1-2, 69.7 points scored and 78.7 allowed, but their lone road game yielded only 66.0 points and 97.0 allowed. The Spartans have won two of their last five, including a 95-74 home victory over UTSA, while the Hornets have only one win in five, a 66-60 home win over Panhandle St, and have struggled on the road with a 66-97 loss to Texas A&M. Their only head-to-head meeting ended 70-57 in favour of San Jose State in 2022. Pythia projects a 85-70 score for the game, a total of 154.8, with the Spartans covering the -11.5 line 61% of the time and an over probability of 41% against the 158.5 line, and a 2% chance of overtime. The Spartans' recent home win over UTSA suggests they will maintain their edge in this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

San Jose State win
90.0%fair 1.11
Best odds1.14
Implied84.1%
Edge+5.9pp
Alabama State win
10.0%fair 10.04
Best odds6.50
Implied15.9%
Edge-5.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

San Jose StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A21/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
86-80
86
80
+6
A25/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
73-85
73
85
-12
H28/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
L
68-82
68
82
-14
A04/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
78-88
78
88
-10
H07/03
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
84-74
84
74
+10
A12/03
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
77-93
77
93
-16
A13/03
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#167
W
95-74
95
74
+21
H02/11
NCAA
UC Irvine
#17
L
79-91
79
91
-12
A08/11
NCAA
UC Riverside
#109
L
75-80
75
80
-5
H13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-36
38-48
42-37
44-43
37-42
36-43
34-45
34-37
36-49
42-39
41-39
43-35
36-43
41-50
45-27
50-47
31-51
48-40
37-36
38-44
161.5Avg total
78.4Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.081.7164.7+1.333%
Season at home (2)85.077.0162.0+8.050%
Season away (1)79.091.0170.0-12.00%
Last 10 (10)78.483.1161.5-4.730%
Last 5 (5)82.082.4164.4-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)70.281.9152.2-11.78%
vs Similar (4)83.269.2152.5+14.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)78.071.0149.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Alabama State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Alabama StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
92-55
92
55
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
71-82
71
82
-11
A20/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
63-76
63
76
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
89-88
89
88
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
64-71
64
71
-7
H04/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
63-65
63
65
-2
H06/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
L
65-77
65
77
-12
H09/03
NCAA
Texas A&M
#11
L
66-97
66
97
-31
A04/11
NCAA
Georgia Gwinnett Grizzlies
#80
L
77-79
77
79
-2
H10/11
NCAA
Panhandle St
#348
W
66-60
66
60
+6
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-25
50-30
39-52
32-30
31-40
32-36
50-44
39-44
34-28
30-43
36-27
27-38
31-32
34-45
29-44
37-53
34-32
43-47
32-28
34-32
146.6Avg total
71.6Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)69.778.7148.3-9.033%
Season at home (2)71.569.5141.0+2.050%
Season away (1)66.097.0163.0-31.00%
Last 10 (10)71.675.0146.6-3.430%
Last 5 (5)67.475.6143.0-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)68.278.4146.5-10.29%
vs Similar (12)72.680.2152.8-7.733%
vs Weaker (5)78.268.4146.6+9.860%
This opponent (San Jose State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
56.7%
@ 1.38-10.3pp
Under 152
43.3%
@ 2.80+10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Over/Under 157 · main line
Over 157
44.1%
@ 1.85-7.9pp
Under 157
55.9%
@ 2.05+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.78
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.93
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 162
Over 162
32.2%
@ 2.25-8.9pp
Under 162
67.8%
@ 1.57+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57

📊 3. Team Totals

San Jose State total 81
Over 81
65.5%
Under 81
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Jose State total 85 · main line
Over 85
49.1%
@ 1.85-1.2pp
Under 85
50.9%
@ 1.87+1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
San Jose State total 89
Over 89
32.8%
Under 89
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alabama State total 69.5
Over 69.5
51.5%
@ 1.47-10.2pp
Under 69.5
48.5%
@ 2.37+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.37
Alabama State total 73.5 · main line
Over 73.5
36.0%
@ 1.98-14.0pp
Under 73.5
64.0%
@ 1.88+14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
Alabama State total 77.5
Over 77.5
22.7%
@ 2.77-9.9pp
Under 77.5
77.3%
@ 1.34+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Under
Betano
1.34

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread San Jose State -15.5
SAN -15.5
47.2%
@ 2.55+9.0pp
ALAB +15.5
52.8%
@ 1.53-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.32
ALAB
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47
Spread San Jose State -12.5 · main line
SAN -12.5
57.9%
@ 1.95+8.8pp
ALAB +12.5
42.1%
@ 1.85-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.85
ALAB
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Spread San Jose State -9.5
SAN -9.5
68.1%
@ 1.60+9.7pp
ALAB +9.5
31.9%
@ 2.25-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.57
ALAB
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.5-3.51st half: +0.6+0.62nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: -4.0-4.0
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.5-3.51st half: +0.6+0.62nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: -4.0-4.0
San Jose StateAlabama State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
San Jose StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A25/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H28/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A04/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
36-49
36
49
-13
H07/03
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A12/03
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A13/03
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#167
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H02/11
NCAA
UC Irvine
#17
L
31-51
31
51
-20
A08/11
NCAA
UC Riverside
#109
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H13/11
NCAA
77.5Avg total
37.0Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)35.238.473.6-3.327%47%
Last 30 at home (17)36.236.873.1-0.629%41%
Last 30 away (13)33.840.574.3-6.823%54%
Last 10 (10)37.040.577.5-3.540%70%
Last 5 (5)38.039.277.2-1.260%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)34.240.274.4-6.017%46%
vs Similar (4)41.232.874.0+8.550%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)34.529.063.5+5.5100%50%
This opponent (Alabama State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Alabama StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
42-25
42
25
+17
H17/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A20/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A21/02
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H04/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H06/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H09/03
NCAA
Texas A&M
#11
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A04/11
NCAA
Georgia Gwinnett Grizzlies
#80
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H10/11
NCAA
Panhandle St
#348
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H12/11
NCAA
71.0Avg total
35.8Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)35.636.972.5-1.253%27%
Last 30 at home (13)35.232.067.2+3.262%8%
Last 30 away (17)36.040.676.6-4.647%41%
Last 10 (10)35.835.271.0+0.660%20%
Last 5 (5)32.432.665.0-0.260%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)36.035.971.9+0.173%27%
vs Similar (12)35.740.676.2-4.925%33%
vs Weaker (5)35.832.868.6+3.060%20%
This opponent (San Jose State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.22
ALAB win
no forecast
@ 4.35
1st half Spread San Jose State -6.5 · main line
SAN -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ALAB +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 2.02
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
San Jose State 1st half total 41.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Alabama State 1st half total 35 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread San Jose State -7.5
SAN -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
ALAB +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread San Jose State -5.5
SAN -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
ALAB +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.30
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread San Jose State -8.5
SAN -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
ALAB +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread San Jose State -4.5
SAN -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
ALAB +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread San Jose State -9.5
SAN -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
ALAB +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread San Jose State -3.5
SAN -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
ALAB +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.26
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
ALAB
no forecast
@ 4.30

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
SAN win + total 157.5
🔒 Pro
ALAB win + total 157.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SAN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ALAB leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Alabama State under 78.580.1%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+10.7pp
San Jose State -970.3%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+10.6pp
Alabama State under 75.571.1%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+10.5pp
Under 16472.2%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+8.0pp
San Jose State under 90.571.9%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+2.5pp
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🔒 36 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
San Jose State wins
0
Alabama State wins
DateGameScore
16/11/22San Jose State v Alabama State70-57
San Jose Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HUC Riverside75-80
08/11/26AUC Irvine79-91
02/11/26HUTSA Roadrunners95-74
13/03/26ANew Mexico77-93
12/03/26ABoise State84-74
07/03/26HWyoming78-88
04/03/26AFresno State68-82
28/02/26HColorado State73-85
25/02/26AAir Force86-80
21/02/26ABoise State69-84
Alabama Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HPanhandle St66-60
10/11/26HGeorgia Gwinnett Grizzlies77-79
04/11/26ATexas A&M66-97
09/03/26HAlcorn State65-77
06/03/26HGrambling St.63-65
04/03/26HSouthern Univ.64-71
28/02/26AAlabama A&M Bulldogs89-88
21/02/26AFlorida A&M63-76
20/02/26ABethune-Cookman71-82
17/02/26HMiss. Valley St.92-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

San Jose State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game83.085.079.0
Allowed / game81.777.091.0
Point differential+1.3+8.0-12.0
Avg total164.7162.0170.0
Over 15767%50%100%
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Alabama State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game69.771.566.0
Allowed / game78.769.597.0
Point differential-9.0+2.0-31.0
Avg total148.3141.0163.0
Over 15733%0%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State330100%114.371.0+43.3
2 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
3 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
4 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
5 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs43175%81.267.8+13.5
2 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
3 Prairie View A&M52340%75.482.0-6.6
4 Jackson State52340%68.483.0-14.6
5 Alabama State31233%69.778.7-9.0
6 Florida A&M41325%77.880.8-3.0
7 Texas Southern41325%76.593.0-16.5
8 Bethune-Cookman4040%71.085.5-14.5
9 Miss. Valley St.4040%63.085.5-22.5
10 Alcorn State4040%66.890.0-23.2
11 Southern Univ.5050%60.488.2-27.8
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff4040%52.898.8-46.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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