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Slovenia vs Portugal Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 25 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 83-82
24-17 20-32 22-19 17-14
Position#11
Record2-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game78.0
vs
Position#14
Record7-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game71.9
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4· Arena Bonifika
Other2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Slovenia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Portugal winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SloveniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSlovenia
Date
Competition
Georgia
#32
W
88-67
88
67
+21
no box
A28/08
World Cup
Cape Verde
#45
W
92-77
92
77
+15
no box
H30/08
World Cup
Australia
#5
W
91-80
91
80
+11
no box
H01/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
71-100
71
100
-29
no box
A03/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
L
89-100
89
100
-11
no box
A06/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
84-100
84
100
-16
no box
A07/09
World Cup
Italy
#17
W
89-85
89
85
+4
no box
A09/09
World Cup
Ukraine
#36
W
87-73
87
73
+14
86avg 75
H22/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
W
88-79
88
79
+9
84avg 75
H25/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
L
74-82
74
82
-8
68avg 75
A22/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-17
29-16
18-17
25-17
24-21
21-17
24-17
23-22
28-18
21-22
17-22
25-18
25-11
9-27
18-30
19-32
24-26
26-24
21-30
18-20
21-33
22-20
20-22
21-25
15-18
27-23
28-19
19-25
21-22
18-18
25-13
23-20
8-20
32-17
25-16
23-26
10-22
14-27
24-15
26-18
169.6Avg total
85.3Scored
84.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.078.0161.0+5.067%
Season at home (2)87.576.0163.5+11.5100%
Season away (1)74.082.0156.0-8.00%
Last 10 (10)85.384.3169.6+1.060%
Last 5 (5)84.483.8168.2+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.290.8172.0-9.733%
vs Similar ◀ (16)85.981.4167.3+4.669%
vs Weaker (8)90.579.1169.6+11.475%
This opponent (Portugal) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPortugal
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#14
L
62-77
62
77
-15
no box
H04/07
World Cup
Romania
#16
W
75-59
75
59
+16
no box
A25/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
102-69
102
69
+33
no box
H28/08
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
88-78
88
78
+10
no box
H10/11
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
92-62
92
62
+30
no box
H13/11
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
75-66
75
66
+9
no box
A23/02
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
82-90
82
90
-8
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
L
70-72
70
72
-2
60avg 64
H22/02
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
W
79-77
79
77
+2
73avg 64
A25/02
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
W
82-74
82
74
+8
78avg 64
H22/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-19
16-26
21-21
11-11
17-14
25-16
19-19
14-10
35-17
23-22
23-18
21-12
21-20
23-32
23-12
21-14
27-14
27-27
18-10
20-11
21-9
17-27
26-22
11-8
19-19
21-24
18-27
24-20
19-19
17-19
17-18
17-16
26-16
21-16
15-27
17-18
22-10
27-14
15-24
18-26
153.1Avg total
80.7Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)82.871.9154.7+10.978%
Season at home (5)86.871.0157.8+15.880%
Season away (4)77.873.0150.8+4.875%
Last 10 (10)80.772.4153.1+8.370%
Last 5 (5)77.675.8153.4+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)64.176.0140.1-11.925%
vs Similar ◀ (9)77.080.6157.6-3.644%
vs Weaker (13)80.467.0147.4+13.485%
This opponent (Slovenia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +6.4+6.4Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +2.8+2.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +6.4+6.4Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +2.8+2.8
SloveniaPortugal
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SloveniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#32
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A28/08
World Cup
Cape Verde
#45
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H30/08
World Cup
Australia
#5
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H01/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A03/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A06/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A07/09
World Cup
Italy
#17
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A09/09
World Cup
Ukraine
#36
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H22/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H25/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
L
24-49
24
49
-25
A22/11
EuroBasket
83.0Avg total
41.1Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.641.283.8+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.143.188.3+2.067%-
Last 30 away (15)40.139.379.4+0.953%-
Last 10 (10)41.141.983.0-0.850%-
Last 5 (5)37.644.081.6-6.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)41.341.382.7+0.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)41.441.983.3-0.462%-
vs Weaker (8)46.039.885.8+6.275%-
This opponent (Portugal) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#14
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H04/07
World Cup
Romania
#16
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A25/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
58-39
58
39
+19
H28/08
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H10/11
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
54-41
54
41
+13
H13/11
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A23/02
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A26/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H22/02
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A25/02
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
W
49-24
49
24
+25
H22/11
EuroBasket
81.8Avg total
43.8Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.936.676.5+3.357%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.335.977.2+5.567%-
Last 30 away (15)38.437.375.7+1.147%-
Last 10 (10)43.838.081.8+5.860%-
Last 5 (5)42.034.676.6+7.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)34.034.668.6-0.650%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)39.840.980.7-1.133%-
vs Weaker (13)43.534.878.4+8.777%-
This opponent (Slovenia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sloveniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Slovenia: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀35%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.7 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.714.7
49.4%
50.6%29.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.711.0
33.7%
32.5%33.0
🏀 Free throws27.320.7
75.6%
71.4%20.7
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Portugaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Portugal: 81.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.620.9
54.2%
50.6%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.48.9
34.9%
32.5%26.7
🏀 Free throws20.013.4
67.2%
71.4%13.4
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 3/9 games with a box score before 25 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Slovenia
LWWWLLLWWW
Portugal
WWLLWWWWWL
#11
League position
#14
+8.1
Net rating
+14.6
106.8
Offensive rating
112.1
98.6
Defensive rating
97.5
50.0%
Effective FG%
53.5%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
49.8%
20.8%
Turnover %
18.7%
33.6%
Off. rebound %
37.3%
0.44
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.7%
3-point %
34.9%
80.5%
Assist %
65.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.8 · 112.1Defence98.6 · 97.5Shooting50.0% · 53.5%3-point %33.7% · 34.9%Ball care20.8% · 18.7%Off. rebounds33.6% · 37.3%Free throws0.44 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Slovenia   ■ Portugal
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Slovenia wins
1
Portugal wins
DateGameScore
22/11/24Portugal v Slovenia82-74
Slovenialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/24APortugal74-82
25/02/24HIsrael88-79
22/02/24HUkraine87-73
09/09/23AItaly89-85
07/09/23ALithuania84-100
06/09/23ACanada89-100
03/09/23AGermany71-100
01/09/23HAustralia91-80
30/08/23HCape Verde92-77
28/08/23AGeorgia88-67
Portugallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/24HSlovenia82-74
25/02/24AUkraine79-77
22/02/24HIsrael70-72
26/02/23ABulgaria82-90
23/02/23ACyprus75-66
13/11/22HRomania92-62
10/11/22HBulgaria88-78
28/08/22HCyprus102-69
25/08/22ARomania75-59
04/07/22HMontenegro62-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Slovenia
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game83.087.574.0
Allowed / game78.076.082.0
Point differential+5.0+11.5-8.0
Avg total161.0163.5156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Portugal
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW78%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %78%80%75%
Points / game82.886.877.8
Allowed / game71.971.073.0
Point differential+10.9+15.8+4.8
Avg total154.7157.8150.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia440100%80.856.8+24.0
2 Italy330100%88.371.0+17.3
3 France440100%76.863.5+13.2
4 Latvia330100%72.766.3+6.3
5 Croatia1411379%84.970.5+14.4
6 Portugal97278%82.871.9+10.9
7 Lithuania43175%79.567.0+12.5
8 Greece43175%73.869.0+4.8
9 Estonia43175%76.873.5+3.2
10 Bulgaria139469%78.173.2+4.8
11 Montenegro32167%80.372.3+8.0
12 Turkey32167%82.776.0+6.7
13 Belgium32167%68.362.7+5.7
14 Slovenia32167%83.078.0+5.0
15 Israel32167%79.077.0+2.0
16 Sweden32167%75.779.0-3.3
17 Slovakia138562%73.169.3+3.8
18 North Macedonia106460%74.069.6+4.4
19 Poland106460%79.475.9+3.5
20 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
21 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%87.279.8+7.5
22 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
23 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
24 Denmark189950%74.473.6+0.8
25 Great Britain42250%80.083.2-3.2
26 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
27 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
28 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
29 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
30 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
31 Germany31233%73.067.0+6.0
32 Spain31233%68.069.7-1.7
33 Iceland31233%72.078.7-6.7
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland41325%74.283.2-9.0
36 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
37 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
38 Cyprus161156%63.680.8-17.2
39 Ukraine3030%74.384.0-9.7
40 Hungary3030%64.381.7-17.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Slovenia2420221783
Portugal1732191482
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