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South Alabama vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 81-69
40-24 41-45
Position#120
Record14-9
FormLWWWL
Points / game72.3
Allowed / game68.1
vs
Position#180
Record14-9
FormLLWLL
Points / game79.7
Allowed / game75.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

South Alabama winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Buffalo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

South AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mobile
#489
W
85-52
85
52
+33
H30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
63-58
63
58
+5
A31/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
49-59
49
59
-10
A03/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
87-71
87
71
+16
H10/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
91-87 OT
91
87
+4
H16/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
56-59
56
59
-3
H17/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A23/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H30/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
69-67
69
67
+2
H01/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
57-65
57
65
-8
A04/02
NCAA
1H
2H
37-28
48-24
31-30
32-28
23-30
26-29
44-32
43-39
32-36
49-45
25-26
31-33
36-40
54-43
15-24
38-24
36-33
33-34
23-29
34-36
134.9Avg total
70.0Scored
64.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)72.368.1140.4+4.161%
Season at home (12)73.064.6137.6+8.467%
Season away (11)71.572.0143.5-0.555%
Last 10 (10)70.064.9134.9+5.170%
Last 5 (5)65.064.4129.4+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)65.091.0156.0-26.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)69.668.9138.4+0.750%
vs Weaker (13)75.169.5144.6+5.577%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
W
81-67
81
67
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
85-72
85
72
+13
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
80-91
80
91
-11
A10/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
81-87
81
87
-6
H13/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
102-105 OT
102
105
-3
A17/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
63-82
63
82
-19
H20/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
89-78
89
78
+11
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
83-95
83
95
-12
H31/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H03/02
NCAA
1H
2H
43-29
38-38
41-25
44-47
47-44
33-47
30-44
51-43
48-46
40-42
27-43
36-39
29-38
38-30
39-32
50-46
31-46
52-49
35-38
36-35
162.0Avg total
80.2Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)79.775.5155.3+4.261%
Season at home (13)79.376.6155.9+2.754%
Season away (10)80.374.1154.4+6.270%
Last 10 (10)80.281.8162.0-1.630%
Last 5 (5)74.679.2153.8-4.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.381.3155.7-7.025%
vs Similar ◀ (10)79.378.8158.1+0.550%
vs Weaker (7)77.367.0144.3+10.386%
This opponent (South Alabama) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -0.6-0.61st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +5.3+5.32nd half: +0.2+0.2
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -0.6-0.61st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +5.3+5.32nd half: +0.2+0.2
South AlabamaBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
South AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mobile
#489
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A31/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A03/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H10/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H16/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
25-26
25
26
-1
H17/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A23/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
15-24
15
24
-9
H30/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H01/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
23-29
23
29
-6
A04/02
NCAA
61.0Avg total
30.2Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.331.764.9+1.650%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.231.165.3+3.156%-
Last 30 away (14)32.232.364.5-0.143%-
Last 10 (10)30.230.861.0-0.640%-
Last 5 (5)27.030.457.4-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)31.036.067.0-5.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)30.230.660.9-0.436%-
vs Weaker (13)34.432.767.1+1.762%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A10/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H13/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A17/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H20/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H31/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H03/02
NCAA
75.5Avg total
37.0Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.636.372.9+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.237.571.8-3.324%-
Last 30 away (13)39.834.774.5+5.177%-
Last 10 (10)37.038.575.5-1.550%-
Last 5 (5)32.239.471.6-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)33.640.273.8-6.725%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)35.436.271.6-0.840%-
vs Weaker (7)41.629.671.1+12.086%-
This opponent (South Alabama) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
South Alabama wins
0
Buffalo wins
DateGameScore
11/11/23Buffalo v South Alabama56-70
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/02/26AAppalachian State57-65
01/02/26HGeorgia State69-67
30/01/26HCoastal Carolina53-48
23/01/26AJames Madison90-83
17/01/26HLouisiana Lafayette56-59
16/01/26HArkansas State91-87 OT
10/01/26HGeorgia Southern87-71
03/01/26ATroy49-59
31/12/25ALouisiana Lafayette63-58
30/12/25HMobile85-52
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/26HMiami (Ohio)71-73
31/01/26HOhio83-95
28/01/26ABowling Green89-78
24/01/26HUMass67-68
20/01/26HAkron63-82
17/01/26AMiami (Ohio)102-105 OT
13/01/26HKent State81-87
10/01/26AOhio80-91
03/01/26HBall State85-72
31/12/25ANorthern Illinois81-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

South Alabama
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL61%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayLWLWL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %61%67%55%
Points / game72.373.071.5
Allowed / game68.164.672.0
Point differential+4.1+8.4-0.5
Avg total140.4137.6143.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%25%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (11)57% (7)75% (4)
Overtime %9%8%9%
Buffalo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL61%
HomeLLLLL54%
AwayWWLLW70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %61%54%70%
Points / game79.779.380.3
Allowed / game75.576.674.1
Point differential+4.2+2.7+6.2
Avg total155.3155.9154.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%23%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)33% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %4%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy2416867%83.375.2+8.1
2 Appalachian State2617965%71.364.1+7.2
3 Marshall2315865%80.274.2+6.0
4 South Alabama2314961%72.368.1+4.1
5 Arkansas State25151060%81.477.2+4.2
6 Texas State26151158%73.770.7+3.0
7 Coastal Carolina26151158%73.772.3+1.3
8 Georgia Southern25141156%81.079.6+1.4
9 Southern Miss26131350%73.373.2+0.2
10 James Madison24111346%73.975.2-1.4
11 Georgia State2591636%70.873.9-3.1
12 Louisiana Lafayette2481633%61.568.6-7.0
13 Old Dominion2471729%74.077.8-3.8
14 Louisiana Monroe2542116%71.882.1-10.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)23230100%92.874.3+18.5
2 Akron2319483%90.474.0+16.4
3 Kent State2416867%85.880.3+5.4
4 Buffalo2314961%79.775.5+4.2
5 UMass25151060%80.675.8+4.8
6 Bowling Green24141058%83.071.0+12.1
7 Ohio24131154%78.077.3+0.7
8 Toledo23121152%81.377.7+3.7
9 Eastern Michigan2491538%70.772.4-1.7
10 Northern Illinois2281436%73.076.4-3.3
11 Ball State2381535%66.970.1-3.3
12 Western Michigan2381535%74.679.6-5.0
13 Central Michigan2371630%73.178.3-5.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
South Alabama404181
Buffalo244569
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