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Buffalo vs Ball State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 85-72
41-25 44-47
Position#180
Record12-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game70.4
Buffalo 🏆
USA
vs
Ball State
USA
Position#288
Record4-9
FormLLLLW
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game67.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Buffalo v Ball State
03 Jan 2026
BUFF85
BALL72
01 Feb 2025
BUFF76
BALL89
23 Jan 2024
BUFF59
BALL87
12 Feb 2022
BUFF80
BALL74
09 Jan 2021
BUFF86
BALL69
18 Feb 2020
BUFF72
BALL59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Buffalo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ball State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vermont
#85
W
94-90
94
90
+4
H18/11
NCAA
VMI
#364
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H24/11
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
73-71
73
71
+2
A26/11
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
71-53
71
53
+18
A29/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H06/12
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
W
83-79
83
79
+4
A09/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
70-73
70
73
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
88-71
88
71
+17
A20/12
NCAA
Penn St-Behrend
#465
W
92-63
92
63
+29
H22/12
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
81-67
81
67
+14
A31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
40-43
54-47
31-33
47-37
45-32
28-39
34-29
37-24
32-38
37-39
39-43
44-36
47-28
23-45
41-28
47-43
51-37
41-26
43-29
38-38
151.3Avg total
79.9Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)79.570.4149.9+9.186%
Season at home (7)83.074.1157.1+8.986%
Season away (7)76.066.7142.7+9.386%
Last 10 (10)79.971.4151.3+8.580%
Last 5 (5)82.870.6153.4+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)71.881.1152.9-9.425%
vs Similar ◀ (6)78.373.7152.0+4.783%
vs Weaker (7)77.367.0144.3+10.386%
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UALR
#295
L
62-68
62
68
-6
H16/11
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
52-70
52
70
-18
A23/11
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
73-80
73
80
-7
A28/11
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
37-55
37
55
-18
A29/11
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
W
96-85
96
85
+11
H30/11
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
52-64
52
64
-12
A04/12
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
L
64-68
64
68
-4
H10/12
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
64-69
64
69
-5
A14/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H20/12
NCAA
Earlham
#693
W
93-30
93
30
+63
H30/12
NCAA
1H
2H
35-37
27-31
28-27
24-43
29-35
44-45
15-23
22-32
38-38
58-47
32-33
20-31
40-39
24-29
30-30
34-39
36-40
41-46
48-8
45-22
134.5Avg total
67.0Scored
67.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)68.067.6135.6+0.431%
Season at home (7)78.765.0143.7+13.757%
Season away (6)55.570.7126.2-15.20%
Last 10 (10)67.067.5134.5-0.520%
Last 5 (5)70.063.4133.4+6.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)69.581.2150.7-11.70%
vs Similar ◀ (13)68.373.2141.5-4.923%
vs Weaker (9)76.173.7149.8+2.467%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.3+6.31st half: +2.1+2.12nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: -2.6-2.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.3+6.31st half: +2.1+2.12nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: -2.6-2.6
BuffaloBall State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vermont
#85
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H18/11
NCAA
VMI
#364
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H24/11
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A26/11
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A29/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H06/12
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A09/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A14/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A20/12
NCAA
Penn St-Behrend
#465
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H22/12
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A31/12
NCAA
74.3Avg total
40.3Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.035.571.5+0.543%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.837.471.2-3.620%-
Last 30 away (15)38.233.771.9+4.567%-
Last 10 (10)40.334.074.3+6.360%-
Last 5 (5)44.233.077.2+11.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)33.139.872.9-6.619%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)34.731.065.7+3.750%-
vs Weaker (7)41.629.671.1+12.086%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UALR
#295
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H16/11
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A23/11
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A28/11
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
15-23
15
23
-8
A29/11
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H30/11
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A04/12
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H10/12
NCAA
Campbell
#222
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A14/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H20/12
NCAA
Earlham
#693
W
48-8
48
8
+40
H30/12
NCAA
64.1Avg total
33.1Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.233.467.6+0.837%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.932.870.8+5.150%-
Last 30 away (14)30.034.164.1-4.121%-
Last 10 (10)33.131.064.1+2.130%-
Last 5 (5)37.230.067.2+7.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.340.774.0-7.317%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)32.532.464.9+0.231%-
vs Weaker (9)36.033.469.4+2.644%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Buffalo wins
4
Ball State wins
DateGameScore
22/02/25Ball State v Buffalo80-66
01/02/25Buffalo v Ball State76-89
24/01/24Buffalo v Ball State59-87
25/01/23Ball State v Buffalo65-91
12/02/22Buffalo v Ball State80-74
14/01/22Ball State v Buffalo68-74
02/02/21Ball State v Buffalo58-78
09/01/21Buffalo v Ball State86-69
19/02/20Buffalo v Ball State72-59
08/01/20Ball State v Buffalo88-68
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25ANorthern Illinois81-67
22/12/25HPenn St-Behrend92-63
20/12/25AWestern Michigan88-71
14/12/25AEast Carolina70-73
09/12/25AUMBC Retrievers83-79
06/12/25HSt. Bonaventure69-77
29/11/25ACanisius71-53
26/11/25ABucknell73-71
24/11/25HVMI78-70
18/11/25HVermont94-90
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/25HEarlham93-30
20/12/25HMiami (Ohio)77-86
14/12/25ACampbell64-69
10/12/25HSouth Dakota St.64-68
04/12/25AEvansville52-64
30/11/25HLe Moyne96-85
29/11/25ALafayette37-55
28/11/25AMonmouth73-80
23/11/25AIndiana State52-70
16/11/25HUALR62-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Buffalo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW86%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayWWLWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %86%86%86%
Points / game79.583.076.0
Allowed / game70.474.166.7
Point differential+9.1+8.9+9.3
Avg total149.9157.1142.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%29%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ball State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW31%
HomeLWLLW57%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %31%57%0%
Points / game68.078.755.5
Allowed / game67.665.070.7
Point differential+0.4+13.7-15.2
Avg total135.6143.7126.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%57%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)14140100%94.971.9+23.0
2 Buffalo1412286%79.570.4+9.1
3 Akron1310377%97.176.8+20.2
4 Bowling Green1410471%88.266.4+21.8
5 Kent State1410471%90.181.2+8.9
6 UMass149564%79.171.4+7.7
7 Toledo137654%83.078.0+5.0
8 Ohio147750%77.375.6+1.6
9 Eastern Michigan147750%71.972.6-0.7
10 Western Michigan146843%75.978.8-2.9
11 Northern Illinois145936%76.178.4-2.3
12 Ball State134931%68.067.6+0.4
13 Central Michigan1441029%71.978.1-6.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Buffalo414485
Ball State254772
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