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Spain vs Portugal Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 28 Aug 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 89-95
14-21 27-26 30-24 18-24
Position#27
Record5-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game71.2
vs
Position#37
Record3-3
FormLWLLW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game74.8
EuropeWorld CupRound 1· Pabellon Principe Felipe
Other2027
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Spain winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Portugal winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpain
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
88-67
88
67
+21
87avg 78
H30/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
91-47
91
47
+44
97avg 78
H31/08
EuroBasket
Italy
#7
L
63-67
63
67
-4
53avg 78
A02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
86-90
86
90
-4
74avg 78
H04/09
EuroBasket
Denmark
#79
W
74-64
74
64
+10
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
90-61
90
61
+29
no box
H30/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#22
W
86-66
86
66
+20
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Ukraine
#22
W
78-64
78
64
+14
no box
H02/03
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
109-81
109
81
+28
no box
H02/07
World Cup
Georgia
#31
L
89-91 OT
89
91
-2
no box
A05/07
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
20-14
28-17
16-20
19-9
22-8
29-12
21-18
18-10
18-20
11-19
16-18
20-31
15-19
28-18
23-22
25-23
20-10
15-14
14-17
19-22
28-11
23-13
20-15
17-21
15-12
33-14
21-19
16-9
12-12
24-22
26-21
24-19
27-22
31-14
27-26
32-14
20-24
19-19
12-26
155.2Avg total
85.4Scored
69.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.771.2158.8+16.583%
Season at home (3)92.368.7161.0+23.7100%
Season away (3)83.073.7156.7+9.367%
Last 10 (10)85.469.8155.2+15.670%
Last 5 (5)90.472.6163.0+17.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.672.0139.6-4.420%
vs Similar (6)79.075.3154.3+3.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)87.373.3160.6+14.084%
This opponent (Portugal) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPortugal
Date
Competition
Turkey
#2
L
54-95
54
95
-41
41avg 51
A30/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
62-78
62
78
-16
51avg 51
H01/09
EuroBasket
Estonia
#18
W
68-65
68
65
+3
61avg 51
A03/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
58-85
58
85
-27
45avg 51
A06/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#51
W
83-62
83
62
+21
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Greece
#39
L
68-76
68
76
-8
no box
H30/11
World Cup
Romania
#34
W
99-82
99
82
+17
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Romania
#34
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A02/03
World Cup
Montenegro
#51
L
68-72
68
72
-4
no box
H02/07
World Cup
Greece
#39
W
71-56
71
56
+15
no box
A05/07
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-22
14-29
10-22
17-22
21-23
7-27
15-15
19-13
14-14
13-18
20-13
21-20
12-17
20-14
19-21
7-33
14-21
25-11
25-11
19-19
17-24
19-13
13-19
19-20
25-12
29-34
21-15
24-21
22-27
31-23
20-26
23-25
13-23
8-13
20-13
27-23
19-15
9-8
25-19
18-14
149.9Avg total
72.7Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)80.874.8155.7+6.050%
Season at home (3)78.376.7155.0+1.733%
Season away (3)83.373.0156.3+10.367%
Last 10 (10)72.777.2149.9-4.540%
Last 5 (5)80.477.4157.8+3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)61.680.7142.2-19.111%
vs Similar (10)81.679.6161.2+2.040%
vs Weaker (11)76.368.6144.9+7.664%
This opponent (Spain) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: -2.8-2.8Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +7.9+7.9Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -1.6-1.6
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: -2.8-2.8Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +7.9+7.9Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -1.6-1.6
SpainPortugal
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SpainLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H30/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
41-17
41
17
+24
H31/08
EuroBasket
Italy
#7
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H04/09
EuroBasket
Denmark
#79
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A27/11
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H30/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#22
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A27/02
World Cup
Ukraine
#22
W
28-21
28
21
+7
H02/03
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H02/07
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
52-38
52
38
+14
A05/07
World Cup
73.7Avg total
41.1Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.135.075.1+5.163%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.435.375.7+5.159%-
Last 30 away (13)39.734.574.2+5.269%-
Last 10 (10)41.132.673.7+8.580%-
Last 5 (5)42.033.275.2+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)33.432.666.0+0.840%-
vs Similar (6)39.734.774.3+5.083%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)42.035.777.7+6.363%-
This opponent (Portugal) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Turkey
#2
L
27-51
27
51
-24
A30/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
28-50
28
50
-22
H01/09
EuroBasket
Estonia
#18
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A03/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A06/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#51
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A27/11
World Cup
Greece
#39
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H30/11
World Cup
Romania
#34
W
54-46
54
46
+8
H27/02
World Cup
Romania
#34
W
53-50
53
50
+3
A02/03
World Cup
Montenegro
#51
L
21-36
21
36
-15
H02/07
World Cup
Greece
#39
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A05/07
World Cup
73.3Avg total
34.5Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.638.776.4-1.147%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.840.379.1-1.536%-
Last 30 away (16)36.637.474.0-0.856%-
Last 10 (10)34.538.873.3-4.350%-
Last 5 (5)38.438.476.8+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)31.240.471.7-9.222%-
vs Similar (10)42.140.482.5+1.750%-
vs Weaker (11)38.835.874.6+3.064%-
This opponent (Spain) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Spaintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Spain: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.116.7
49.0%
-33.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.88.3
29.9%
-24.9
🏀 Free throws21.114.0
66.4%
-14.0
They take 61.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Portugaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Portugal: 66.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.216.7
43.7%
-33.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.87.3
25.3%
-21.9
🏀 Free throws16.111.0
68.3%
-11.0
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Aug 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Spain
LWWWWWLLWW
Portugal
WLLWLWLWLL
#27
League position
#37
+5.9
Net rating
-15.3
99.0
Offensive rating
89.8
93.1
Defensive rating
105.1
47.1%
Effective FG%
41.3%
45.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
17.9%
Turnover %
19.3%
28.6%
Off. rebound %
32.4%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.24
29.9%
3-point %
25.3%
74.0%
Assist %
67.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Spain   ■ Portugal
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Spain wins
0
Portugal wins
No previous meetings.
Spainlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/07/26AGeorgia89-91 OT
02/07/26HDenmark109-81
02/03/26HUkraine78-64
27/02/26AUkraine86-66
30/11/25HGeorgia90-61
27/11/25ADenmark74-64
04/09/25HGreece86-90
02/09/25AItaly63-67
31/08/25HCyprus91-47
30/08/25HBosnia & Herzegovina88-67
Portugallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/07/26AGreece71-56
02/07/26HMontenegro68-72
02/03/26ARomania96-101
27/02/26HRomania99-82
30/11/25HGreece68-76
27/11/25AMontenegro83-62
06/09/25AGermany58-85
03/09/25AEstonia68-65
01/09/25HLatvia62-78
30/08/25ATurkey54-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Spain
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%100%67%
Points / game87.792.383.0
Allowed / game71.268.773.7
Point differential+16.5+23.7+9.3
Avg total158.8161.0156.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+83%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Portugal
World Cup 2027
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW50%
HomeLWL33%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %50%33%67%
Points / game80.878.383.3
Allowed / game74.876.773.0
Point differential+6.0+1.7+10.3
Avg total155.7155.0156.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%33%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia770100%98.366.7+31.6
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada770100%101.479.6+21.9
4 Turkey770100%89.372.6+16.7
5 Poland770100%96.080.3+15.7
6 Croatia1110191%99.171.2+27.9
7 Cameroon87188%77.669.2+8.4
8 Argentina76186%86.667.9+18.7
9 Ivory Coast76186%93.175.4+17.7
10 Lebanon76186%90.072.6+17.4
11 Brazil76186%93.178.0+15.1
12 France76186%85.372.0+13.3
13 Germany76186%93.380.4+12.9
14 Spain65183%87.771.2+16.5
15 Mexico54180%96.683.4+13.2
16 Dominican Republic54180%91.880.2+11.6
17 South Sudan86275%82.467.8+14.6
18 Ukraine118373%81.974.7+7.2
19 Jordan75271%84.463.1+21.3
20 Senegal75271%85.168.9+16.3
21 Angola75271%86.971.9+15.0
22 New Zealand75271%93.180.6+12.6
23 Uruguay75271%85.073.1+11.9
24 Japan75271%86.475.4+11.0
25 Iran75271%77.667.7+9.9
26 Italy75271%85.777.0+8.7
27 Serbia75271%88.780.1+8.6
28 Mali75271%80.175.6+4.6
29 Guinea85362%73.466.0+7.4
30 Tunisia85362%71.268.8+2.5
31 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
32 Egypt74357%77.472.7+4.7
33 China74357%83.980.9+3.0
34 Georgia74357%83.781.6+2.1
35 Qatar74357%76.775.6+1.1
36 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
37 Sweden74357%82.983.4-0.6
38 Finland74357%78.481.0-2.6
39 Montenegro74357%69.376.4-7.1
40 Hungary116555%81.376.6+4.6
41 Portugal63350%80.874.8+6.0
42 Nigeria84450%77.476.0+1.4
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
45 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
46 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
47 Netherlands115645%80.579.3+1.3
48 Greece73443%72.770.0+2.7
49 Bosnia & Herzegovina73443%78.977.0+1.9
50 Estonia73443%82.381.1+1.1
51 Lithuania73443%87.086.3+0.7
52 Latvia73443%83.182.9+0.3
53 Bahamas73443%92.393.6-1.3
54 Philippines73443%78.179.7-1.6
55 Saudi Arabia73443%77.078.9-1.9
56 Slovenia73443%82.984.7-1.9
57 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
58 South Korea73443%77.480.1-2.7
59 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
60 Iceland73443%82.491.4-9.0
61 Cape Verde83538%74.579.0-4.5
62 Chile62433%72.277.2-5.0
63 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
64 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
65 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
66 Israel72529%80.683.3-2.7
67 Puerto Rico72529%87.491.7-4.3
68 Panama72529%74.487.3-12.9
69 D.R. Congo72529%66.685.0-18.4
70 Syria72529%65.784.7-19.0
71 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
72 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
73 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
74 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
75 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
76 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Spain1427301889
Portugal2126242495
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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