St. Bonaventure hosts Lafayette on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Purple Knights as the clear favourite, rating them 91% to win because of a 2-1 record, 82.3 points per game and only 64.0 points allowed, while Lafayette sits 3-2, 79.8 points per game and 64.4 allowed; St. Bonaventure's 79-64 projected score reflects that edge, and the model gives the home team a 49% chance to cover the -15.5 line and a 59% chance the game will go over the 140.0 total, with a 2% overtime probability. St. Bonaventure's season shows a 2-1 record, 82.3 points scored and 64.0 allowed, and at home they are 1-1 with 79.5 points scored and 71.5 allowed, having beaten Cornell 88-64 at home, beaten Canisius 88-49 away and lost to Youngstown State 71-79 at home in their last five games. Lafayette's season is 3-2, 79.8 points scored and 64.4 allowed, but they are 0-2 on the road, scoring 58.5 and allowing 81.5, and in their last five they beat Penn St. Lehigh Valley 89-46 at home, beat Penn State 89-46 at home and lost to Saint Josephs Hawks 57-67 away. The projected total of 143.6 points suggests a high-scoring affair, and the final score of 79-64 underscores St. Bonaventure's offensive advantage.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St. Bonaventure winWon
90.6%fair 1.10
Best odds1.08
Implied90.9%
Edge-0.3pp
Lafayette winLost
9.4%fair 10.65
Best odds12.00
Implied9.1%
Edge+0.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 22:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (St. Bonaventure) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139Push
Over 139
61.2%
@ 1.79+6.1pp
Under 139
38.8%
@ 2.50-6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.11
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Over/Under 144 · main lineActual: Under 144
Over 144
48.7%
@ 1.95-1.6pp
Under 144
51.3%
@ 1.92+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
36.4%
@ 2.65+1.3pp
Under 149
63.6%
@ 1.43-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
St. Bonaventure total 74Actual: St. Bonaventure over 74
Over 74
71.5%
Under 74
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Bonaventure total 78 · main lineActual: St. Bonaventure over 78
Over 78
55.8%
@ 1.85+5.6pp
Under 78
44.2%
@ 1.87-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
St. Bonaventure total 82Actual: St. Bonaventure under 82
Over 82
39.1%
Under 82
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lafayette total 58Push
Over 58
73.7%
Under 58
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lafayette total 62 · main lineActual: Lafayette under 62
Over 62
58.6%
@ 1.85+8.6pp
Under 62
41.4%
@ 1.87-8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Lafayette total 66Actual: Lafayette under 66
Over 66
42.2%
Under 66
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread St. Bonaventure -19Actual: St. Bonaventure -19
ST. -19
36.0%
@ 2.35-3.6pp
LAFA +19
64.0%
@ 1.54+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Bet365
2.35
LAFA
Bet365
1.54
Spread St. Bonaventure -16 · main lineActual: St. Bonaventure -16
ST. -16
46.7%
@ 1.96-2.6pp
LAFA +16
53.3%
@ 1.90+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
SBO
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
LAFA
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.76
SBO
1.75
Spread St. Bonaventure -13Actual: St. Bonaventure -13
ST. -13
57.8%
@ 1.58-2.3pp
LAFA +13
42.2%
@ 2.38+2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.54
LAFA
Pinnacle
2.38
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
St. BonaventureLafayette
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (St. Bonaventure) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: St. Bonaventure win
ST. win
no forecast
@ 1.24
LAFA win
no forecast
@ 4.05
2nd half Spread St. Bonaventure -6.5 · main lineActual: St. Bonaventure -6.5
ST. -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
LAFA +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
St. Bonaventure 2nd half total 41.5 · main lineActual: St. Bonaventure over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Lafayette 2nd half total 32.5 · main lineActual: Lafayette under 32.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread St. Bonaventure -7.5Actual: St. Bonaventure -7.5
ST. -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
LAFA +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: St. Bonaventure (regulation)
ST.
no forecast
@ 1.28
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
LAFA
no forecast
@ 4.05
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
St. Bonaventure over 73.5
72.5%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Lafayette over 58.5
71.2%
1.41
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.29
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Over 134.5
71.1%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Over 133
74.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 135
70.5%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Over 134
72.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Over 132.5
75.2%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Lafayette over 55.5
80.5%
1.25
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Over 132
76.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
77.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.9%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure (regulation)
89.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.06
Betano
1.05
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Lafayette +22.5
74.4%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
St. Bonaventure under 96.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
St. Bonaventure over 72.5
75.7%
1.28
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Lafayette over 57.5
74.5%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Lafayette +21.5
71.5%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
St. Bonaventure under 94.5
93.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Lafayette +21
70.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Lost
St. Bonaventure under 98.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 89.5
84.7%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Lafayette +24.5
79.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Lafayette +22
73.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Lafayette +23
76.4%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Push
Lafayette over 52.5
87.7%
1.10
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Lafayette +24
79.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 92.5
90.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 88.5
82.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Lafayette +23.5
77.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 90.5
87.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 133.5
73.2%
1.32
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure +4.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Lafayette over 53.5
85.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure +3.5
93.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 86.5
76.5%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Lafayette over 51.5
89.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -8.5
72.4%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
St. Bonaventure over 69.5
84.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Under 168.5
93.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Lafayette under 78.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -7.5
75.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -8
74.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Lafayette under 80.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -1.5
89.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Lafayette over 54.5
83.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -4.5
83.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
St. Bonaventure over 70.5
81.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
St. Bonaventure win
90.6%
1.05
BetVictor
1.08
Pinnacle
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-0.3pp
Won
Under 163.5
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Lafayette under 76.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 123.5
89.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Lafayette under 77.5
90.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Lafayette over 56.5
77.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -6.5
78.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
St. Bonaventure -9
71.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Lafayette under 72.5
79.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Lafayette under 74.5
84.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure over 71.5
78.8%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Under 153.5
73.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Over 128.5
82.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 158.5
82.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Lafayette under 75.5
86.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 87.5
79.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Lafayette under 69.5
70.4%
1.23
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Lafayette under 70.5
73.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Lafayette under 73.5
82.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Lafayette under 71.5
76.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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