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Lafayette vs Penn State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 81-73
Projected total 153.9
Final 89-46
54-16 35-30
Position#201
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game76.7
Vs
74%
26%
■ LAFA 74%■ PENN 26%
Pythia win probability
Position#180
Record2-1
FormLLWWL
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game77.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Lafayette hosts Penn State on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model naming Lafayette the favourite and predicting a decisive win. Lafayette's season record stands at 1-2, averaging 73.7 points scored and 76.7 points allowed, while Penn State is 2-1, scoring 90.0 points and conceding 77.3. Lafayette's sole home game was a 104-67 victory, their last five games yielding two wins and three losses, including a 104-67 home win over Kings (PA) Monarchs and a 57-67 loss to Saint Josephs Hawks away. Penn State's last five games also feature two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 97-93 home win over Chattanooga Mocs and a 97-57 home win over Canisius, but a 76-82 loss to Pittsburgh at home. Historically, Penn State has one win against Lafayette, with the last encounter ending 70-57 in favour of Penn State on 25 November 2022. The model assigns a 74% probability to Lafayette winning and 26% to Penn State, projecting a final score of 81-73 and a total of 153.9 points; the home team is 4% likely to cover the spread and 4% likely to hit the over, with a 4% chance of overtime. Lafayette's recent 104-67 home triumph suggests they will carry momentum into this contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lafayette winWon
74.1%fair 1.35
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penn State winLost
25.9%fair 3.85
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LafayetteUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
54-68
54
68
-14
H12/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
69-78
69
78
-9
H14/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
W
86-83
86
83
+3
A18/02
NCAA
American University
#204
L
61-75
61
75
-14
H22/02
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
70-69
70
69
+1
A26/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
83-77
83
77
+6
H28/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
L
77-82
77
82
-5
H04/03
NCAA
Butler
#199
L
60-96
60
96
-36
A03/11
NCAA
Kings (PA) Monarchs
#439
W
104-67
104
67
+37
H05/11
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks
#80
L
57-67 OT
57
67
-10
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-40
25-28
37-33
32-45
33-49
53-34
31-34
30-41
31-25
39-44
37-26
46-51
39-34
38-48
34-54
26-42
55-31
49-36
24-31
31-24
148.3Avg total
72.1Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)73.776.7150.3-3.033%
Season at home (1)104.067.0171.0+37.0100%
Season away (2)58.581.5140.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)72.176.2148.3-4.140%
Last 5 (5)76.277.8154.0-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)66.975.3142.2-8.425%
vs Similar (17)69.672.7142.4-3.141%
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Penn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
L
72-83
72
83
-11
A14/02
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
72-85
72
85
-13
H18/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
64-87
64
87
-23
A21/02
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-69
71
69
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
62-94
62
94
-32
H05/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A08/03
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
66-76
66
76
-10
A10/03
NCAA
Canisius
#233
W
97-57
97
57
+40
H03/11
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#210
W
97-93
97
93
+4
H05/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#60
L
76-82
76
82
-6
H09/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-38
40-45
20-39
52-46
20-38
44-49
34-38
37-31
21-45
41-49
21-43
41-31
32-34
34-42
47-26
50-31
54-31
43-62
38-42
38-40
153.9Avg total
73.9Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)90.077.3167.3+12.767%
Season at home (3)90.077.3167.3+12.767%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)73.980.0153.9-6.130%
Last 5 (5)79.676.4156.0+3.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)72.082.0153.9-10.026%
vs Similar (6)77.783.0160.7-5.333%
vs Weaker (1)97.057.0154.0+40.0100%
This opponent (Lafayette) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Under 147
Over 147
66.1%
Under 147
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152Actual: Under 152
Over 152
54.1%
Under 152
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
41.7%
Under 157
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Lafayette total 80.5Actual: Lafayette over 80.5
Over 80.5
50.4%
Under 80.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lafayette total 84.5Actual: Lafayette over 84.5
Over 84.5
34.9%
Under 84.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lafayette total 88.5Actual: Lafayette over 88.5
Over 88.5
21.6%
Under 88.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn State total 64Actual: Penn State under 64
Over 64
82.4%
Under 64
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn State total 68Actual: Penn State under 68
Over 68
70.0%
Under 68
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn State total 72Actual: Penn State under 72
Over 72
54.7%
Under 72
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Lafayette -3Actual: Lafayette -3
LAFA -3
66.7%
PENN +3
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
LAFA
No market prices yet.
PENN
No market prices yet.
Spread Lafayette 0Actual: Lafayette 0
LAFA 0
74.1%
PENN 0
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
LAFA
No market prices yet.
PENN
No market prices yet.
Spread Lafayette +3Actual: Lafayette +3
LAFA +3
81.0%
PENN -3
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
LAFA
No market prices yet.
PENN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -0.7-0.71st half: -5.5-5.52nd half2nd half: -2.4-2.42nd half: -0.6-0.6
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -0.7-0.71st half: -5.5-5.52nd half2nd half: -2.4-2.42nd half: -0.6-0.6
LafayettePenn State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LafayetteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H12/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H14/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A18/02
NCAA
American University
#204
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
31-25
31
25
+6
A26/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H28/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Butler
#199
L
34-54
34
54
-20
A03/11
NCAA
Kings (PA) Monarchs
#439
W
55-31
55
31
+24
H05/11
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks
#80
L
24-31
24
31
-7
A07/11
NCAA
70.7Avg total
35.0Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.534.967.4-2.430%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.733.468.1+1.340%-
Last 30 away (15)30.336.566.7-6.220%-
Last 10 (10)35.035.770.7-0.750%-
Last 5 (5)37.835.273.0+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)31.435.266.7-3.817%-
vs Similar (17)31.934.966.9-3.035%-
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Penn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A14/02
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
20-39
20
39
-19
H18/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
20-38
20
38
-18
A21/02
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H28/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
21-45
21
45
-24
H05/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
21-43
21
43
-22
A08/03
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A10/03
NCAA
Canisius
#233
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#210
W
54-31
54
31
+23
H05/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#60
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H09/11
NCAA
69.3Avg total
31.9Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.339.272.5-5.933%-
Last 30 at home (19)35.135.971.0-0.847%-
Last 30 away (11)30.245.075.2-14.89%-
Last 10 (10)31.937.469.3-5.520%-
Last 5 (5)38.435.273.6+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)33.239.672.8-6.430%-
vs Similar (6)31.540.071.5-8.533%-
vs Weaker (1)47.026.073.0+21.0100%-
This opponent (Lafayette) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Lafayette wins
1
Penn State wins
DateGameScore
26/11/22Penn State v Lafayette70-57
Lafayettelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ASaint Josephs Hawks57-67 OT
05/11/26HKings (PA) Monarchs104-67
03/11/26AButler60-96
04/03/26HHoly Cross77-82
28/02/26HArmy83-77
26/02/26AColgate70-69
22/02/26HAmerican University61-75
18/02/26AHoly Cross86-83
14/02/26HLehigh69-78
12/02/26HLoyola Maryland54-68
Penn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/26HPittsburgh76-82
05/11/26HChattanooga Mocs97-93
03/11/26HCanisius97-57
10/03/26ANorthwestern66-76
08/03/26ARutgers62-74
05/03/26HOhio State62-94
28/02/26HIowa71-69
21/02/26ANebraska64-87
18/02/26HRutgers72-85
14/02/26AOregon72-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lafayette
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game73.7104.058.5
Allowed / game76.767.081.5
Point differential-3.0+37.0-23.0
Avg total150.3171.0140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %33%0%50%
Penn State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game90.090.0-
Allowed / game77.377.3-
Point differential+12.7+12.7-
Avg total167.3167.3-
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Navy32167%69.065.7+3.3
2 Boston University32167%73.374.7-1.3
3 Army21150%84.062.5+21.5
4 Loyola Maryland31233%73.770.7+3.0
5 Lafayette31233%73.776.7-3.0
6 Lehigh31233%64.373.7-9.3
7 Colgate2020%75.083.5-8.5
8 American University2020%63.080.5-17.5
9 Bucknell2020%64.589.0-24.5
10 Holy Cross2020%62.599.0-36.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illinois220100%116.057.5+58.5
2 Michigan State220100%93.560.0+33.5
3 Iowa220100%83.550.5+33.0
4 Rutgers220100%91.059.0+32.0
5 UCLA220100%99.069.0+30.0
6 Nebraska220100%86.561.0+25.5
7 Oregon220100%92.570.0+22.5
8 Indiana330100%88.768.7+20.0
9 USC220100%94.074.5+19.5
10 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
11 Minnesota330100%74.757.7+17.0
12 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
13 Wisconsin220100%74.066.0+8.0
14 Penn State32167%90.077.3+12.7
15 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
16 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
17 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
18 Michigan21150%80.576.5+4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Lafayette543589
Penn State163046
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