PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.) faces Siena on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names St. John's (N.Y.) the favourite, giving it a 97% chance of winning and 3% for Siena, a reflection of the home side's perfect 3-0 record, 90.7 points per game and 62.3 allowed per game, and Siena's 2-1 record, 85.3 points per game and 79.0 allowed per game. St. John's (N.Y.) has won all three of its games, all at home, scoring an average of 90.7 points and conceding 62.3, while Siena has won two of three, with one road win and one road loss, averaging 87.0 points and allowing 84.5 on the road. In the last five games St. John's (N.Y.) went 4-1, with recent victories over Colgate 90-59, Iona 104-65 and Monmouth 78-63, whereas Siena went 3-2, beating Dayton 99-89 away, beating Princeton 82-68 at home and losing to Bryant University 75-80 away. The projected score is 88-65 for St. John's (N.Y.) and Siena, with a projected total of 153.0 points and a 1% chance of overtime. The game ends with St. John's (N.Y.) maintaining its undefeated streak.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 90.7 | 62.3 | 153.0 | +28.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 90.7 | 62.3 | 153.0 | +28.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 80.0 | 64.2 | 144.2 | +15.8 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.8 | 66.4 | 149.2 | +16.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 75.0 | 80.0 | 155.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (11) | 72.3 | 65.5 | 137.8 | +6.7 | 82% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 84.3 | 68.9 | 153.2 | +15.4 | 94% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.3 | 79.0 | 164.3 | +6.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (1) | 82.0 | 68.0 | 150.0 | +14.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 87.0 | 84.5 | 171.5 | +2.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.0 | 67.7 | 140.7 | +5.3 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.0 | 72.4 | 149.4 | +4.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 65.0 | 71.0 | 136.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (17) | 71.2 | 70.2 | 141.4 | +0.9 | 53% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 74.2 | 63.9 | 138.1 | +10.3 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.2 | 32.8 | 72.9 | +7.4 | 77% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 42.2 | 30.9 | 73.1 | +11.2 | 76% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 37.5 | 35.2 | 72.7 | +2.4 | 77% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.5 | 28.8 | 71.3 | +13.7 | 100% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.4 | 29.8 | 74.2 | +14.6 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 40.0 | 39.0 | 79.0 | +1.0 | 100% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 36.5 | 30.8 | 67.4 | +5.7 | 73% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 42.4 | 33.6 | 76.0 | +8.8 | 78% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.6 | 33.1 | 68.7 | +2.5 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 36.1 | 31.6 | 67.7 | +4.5 | 54% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 35.2 | 34.2 | 69.4 | +1.1 | 71% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.0 | 31.9 | 68.9 | +5.1 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.4 | 34.6 | 75.0 | +5.8 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 43.0 | 32.0 | 75.0 | +11.0 | 100% | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 33.1 | 35.6 | 68.7 | -2.6 | 47% | - |
| vs Weaker (12) | 38.6 | 29.5 | 68.1 | +9.1 | 83% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Colgate | 90-59 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Iona | 104-65 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Monmouth | 78-63 |
| 27/03/26 | A | Duke | 75-80 |
| 22/03/26 | A | Kansas | 67-65 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 79-53 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Uconn | 72-52 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Seton Hall | 78-68 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Providence | 85-72 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Seton Hall | 72-65 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Dayton | 99-89 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Princeton | 82-68 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Bryant University | 75-80 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Duke | 65-71 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Merrimack Warriors | 64-54 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Fairfield | 76-61 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Mount St. Mary's | 63-58 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Rider | 76-61 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Fairfield | 58-72 |
| 22/02/26 | H | St. Peters | 72-63 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 90.7 | 90.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 62.3 | 62.3 | - |
| Point differential | +28.3 | +28.3 | - |
| Avg total | 153.0 | 153.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 85.3 | 82.0 | 87.0 |
| Allowed / game | 79.0 | 68.0 | 84.5 |
| Point differential | +6.3 | +14.0 | +2.5 |
| Avg total | 164.3 | 150.0 | 171.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xavier | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 53.3 | +37.7 |
| 2 |  Uconn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 54.7 | +30.0 |
| 3 | St. John's (N.Y.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 62.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  DePaul | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 80.3 | 61.7 | +18.7 |
| 5 |  Georgetown | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.0 | +13.0 |
| 6 |  Seton Hall | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 67.0 | 54.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  Marquette | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 53.0 | +27.3 |
| 8 |  Butler | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.0 | 75.0 | +17.0 |
| 9 |  Villanova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 66.3 | +16.0 |
| 10 |  Providence | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.0 | 59.3 | +13.7 |
| 11 |  Creighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 68.3 | +12.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 79.0 | +6.3 |
| 2 |  Merrimack Warriors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 65.7 | 60.0 | +5.7 |
| 3 |  Sacred Heart | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.8 | 68.2 | +16.5 |
| 4 |  Canisius | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.2 | 81.5 | -4.2 |
| 5 |  Iona | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 66.2 | 71.5 | -5.2 |
| 6 |  Quinnipiac | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 68.5 | 75.5 | -7.0 |
| 7 |  Mount St. Mary's | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 60.0 | 77.0 | -17.0 |
| 8 |  Marist | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 70.7 | -0.3 |
| 9 |  Manhattan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 73.0 | -8.7 |
| 10 |  Fairfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 75.7 | -16.7 |
| 11 |  Rider | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.5 | 72.2 | -7.8 |
| 12 |  St. Peters | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 47.5 | 63.8 | -16.2 |
| 13 |  Niagara | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 63.0 | 84.0 | -21.0 |
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