St. Thomas (Minn.) faces Wisc. Green Bay on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring St. Thomas (Minn.) at 93% to win, a reflection of their balanced 1-1 record and 74.5 points per game against 77.0 allowed, while Green Bay also sits at 1-1 but averages 79.0 points and only 66.0 allowed, yet their road form is weaker at 0-1 with 64.0 points and 81.0 allowed; St. Thomas has won 3 of their last 5 games, including a 87-78 win over Presbyterian, whereas Green Bay also won 3 of 5, but their recent loss to Cincinnati 64-81 stands out; the teams have met four times, St. Thomas winning three times including a 80-61 victory in November 2025; Pythia projects a 86-69 score, 154.8 total points, with St. Thomas covering the -8.5 line 79% of the time and the over on the 149.0 line 64% of the time, and a 2% chance of overtime; the next game will see St. Thomas (Minn.) host Wisc. Green Bay.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St. Thomas (Minn.) winLost
93.5%fair 1.07
Best odds1.29
Implied75.1%
Edge+18.4pp
Wisc. Green Bay winWon
6.5%fair 15.34
Best odds3.86
Implied24.9%
Edge-18.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (St. Thomas (Minn.)) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144Actual: Under 144
Over 144
75.2%
@ 1.47+11.8pp
Under 144
24.8%
@ 2.55-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 149 · main lineActual: Under 149
Over 149
64.2%
@ 1.91+14.2pp
Under 149
35.8%
@ 1.91-14.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Over/Under 154Actual: Under 154
Over 154
51.9%
@ 2.60+16.1pp
Under 154
48.1%
@ 1.64-16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Marathon Be
1.64
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 75Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 75
Over 75
87.9%
Under 75
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 79 · main lineActual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 79
Over 79
77.6%
@ 1.85+27.6pp
Under 79
22.4%
@ 1.85-27.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 83Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 83
Over 83
63.3%
Under 83
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisc. Green Bay total 67Actual: Wisc. Green Bay over 67
Over 67
56.3%
Under 67
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisc. Green Bay total 71 · main lineActual: Wisc. Green Bay over 71
Over 71
39.8%
@ 1.87-9.9pp
Under 71
60.2%
@ 1.85+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Wisc. Green Bay total 75Actual: Wisc. Green Bay over 75
Over 75
25.2%
Under 75
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread St. Thomas (Minn.) -11Actual: Wisc. Green Bay +11
ST. -11
72.7%
@ 2.30+32.5pp
WISC +11
27.3%
@ 1.55-32.5pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Bet365
2.30
WISC
Bet365
1.55
Spread St. Thomas (Minn.) -8 · main lineActual: Wisc. Green Bay +8
ST. -8
81.0%
@ 1.97+32.2pp
WISC +8
19.0%
@ 1.95-32.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.80
WISC
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.75
Spread St. Thomas (Minn.) -5Actual: Wisc. Green Bay +5
ST. -5
87.6%
@ 1.50+25.1pp
WISC +5
12.4%
@ 2.50-25.1pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Bet365
1.50
WISC
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
St. Thomas (Minn.)Wisc. Green Bay
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (St. Thomas (Minn.)) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Wisc. Green Bay win
ST. win
no forecast
@ 1.52
WISC win
no forecast
@ 2.55
2nd half Spread St. Thomas (Minn.) -3.5 · main lineActual: Wisc. Green Bay +3.5
ST. -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
WISC +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wisc. Green Bay (regulation)
ST.
no forecast
@ 1.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
WISC
no forecast
@ 2.60
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
St. Thomas (Minn.) -10
75.7%
2.24
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+35.4pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -9
78.5%
2.06
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathon Bet
2.05
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+34.4pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -9.5
76.4%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
+34.3pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -8.5
79.0%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.99
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
+32.7pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -11
72.7%
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -8
81.0%
1.91
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.80
-
+32.2pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -11.5
70.6%
2.34
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.12
-
-
+31.8pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -10.5
73.6%
2.22
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.12
-
+31.7pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 78
80.6%
1.83
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+30.2pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -7.5
81.5%
1.82
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.74
+30.1pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 77.5
81.2%
1.78
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+30.0pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -7
83.4%
1.77
1xBet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.68
-
+29.8pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 78.5
78.3%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+29.8pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 80.5
71.9%
2.15
Betano
2.15
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 79.5
75.2%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+29.4pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -5.5
85.9%
1.61
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+29.2pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -6
85.6%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -6.5
83.8%
1.70
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.64
+28.1pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 79
77.6%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -4.5
87.9%
1.50
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -5
87.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -3.5
89.6%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -4
89.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 76.5
83.7%
1.54
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 74.5
88.2%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) (regulation)
92.4%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Marathon Bet
1.31
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -2.5
91.0%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -3
90.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 75.5
86.1%
1.45
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -1.5
92.6%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -2
92.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) +2.5
95.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) -1
93.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) win
93.5%
1.27
Betano
1.29
WilliamHill
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathon Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+18.4pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) +1.5
94.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Over 146
71.1%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Over 145
73.2%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Over 145.5
71.7%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Over 144
75.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
St. Thomas (Minn.) +7.5
97.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Over 144.5
73.7%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Over 142
79.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Over 143.5
75.7%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Lost
Over 143
77.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Push
Over 142.5
77.6%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Over 141.5
79.5%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Over 141
80.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +6.5
97.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
Wisc. Green Bay under 74.5
72.4%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Over 140.5
81.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +12.5
99.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +11.5
98.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 76.5
78.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 77.5
81.3%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.4%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.4pp
-
Wisc. Green Bay under 75.5
75.6%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Over 139.5
82.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 78.5
83.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Over 124.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 53.5
93.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 54.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 55.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 56.5
88.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 57.5
86.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 174.5
88.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 98.5
89.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 58.5
84.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 60.5
78.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 59.5
81.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 97.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 61.5
75.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Under 169.5
81.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 62.5
72.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 95.5
82.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
72.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 93.5
77.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 91.5
70.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-17.1pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +23.5
70.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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