PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Stanford faces UC Irvine in the NCAA on 17 November 2026, with the model designating Stanford as the clear favourite, a rating driven by their 3-0 record, 82.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed per game, the best in the league at 77th position, while UC Irvine also boasts a 3-0 record but with 91.0 points per game and 61.7 allowed per game, the 29th best. Stanford has won all three home games, scoring 82.0 and allowing 67.0, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 91-73 win over Rice, an 81-63 victory against Oakland and a 74-65 win over East Washington. UC Irvine's last five games also include four wins and one loss, with recent triumphs over Lincoln University (CA) 90-40, San Jose State 91-79 and Chapman Panthers 92-66. The teams have not met before in this competition, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia assigns an 85% chance to Stanford and a 15% chance to UC Irvine, projecting a 80-68 score and a total of 148.4 points; the model also estimates a 3% probability of overtime. The final game will see Stanford's defence hold UC Irvine to 68 points, a result that aligns with the projected outcome.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 82.0 | 67.0 | 149.0 | +15.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 82.0 | 67.0 | 149.0 | +15.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 77.9 | 70.9 | 148.8 | +7.0 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.8 | 69.8 | 148.6 | +9.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 71.3 | 78.7 | 150.0 | -7.3 | 50% |
| vs Similar (13) | 75.0 | 73.1 | 148.1 | +1.9 | 54% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 77.7 | 67.9 | 145.6 | +9.8 | 82% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 91.0 | 61.7 | 152.7 | +29.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 91.0 | 61.7 | 152.7 | +29.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 81.7 | 68.6 | 150.3 | +13.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.0 | 66.8 | 152.8 | +19.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (7) | 68.4 | 71.6 | 140.0 | -3.1 | 43% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (22) | 79.7 | 67.6 | 147.3 | +12.0 | 86% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.0 | 34.5 | 69.5 | +0.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 34.9 | 33.0 | 67.9 | +1.9 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.0 | 36.5 | 71.5 | -1.5 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.2 | 32.4 | 67.6 | +2.8 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.4 | 31.4 | 66.8 | +4.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 34.8 | 39.8 | 74.7 | -5.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 33.4 | 33.8 | 67.2 | -0.5 | 46% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 36.9 | 32.4 | 69.3 | +4.5 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.4 | 31.1 | 68.5 | +6.3 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.1 | 31.2 | 69.4 | +6.9 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 36.4 | 30.9 | 67.3 | +5.5 | 69% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.4 | 30.9 | 70.3 | +8.5 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.4 | 29.2 | 72.6 | +14.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (7) | 32.4 | 31.9 | 64.3 | +0.6 | 29% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (22) | 38.9 | 31.1 | 70.0 | +7.8 | 82% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Rice | 91-73 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Oakland | 81-63 |
| 03/11/26 | H | East. Washington | 74-65 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 63-64 |
| 07/03/26 | A | NC State | 85-84 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Notre Dame | 86-78 |
| 28/02/26 | H | SMU Mustangs | 95-75 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 75-67 |
| 21/02/26 | A | California | 66-72 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Wake Forest | 63-68 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Lincoln University (CA) | 90-40 |
| 08/11/26 | H | San Jose State | 91-79 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Chapman Panthers | 92-66 |
| 15/03/26 | H | Hawaii | 64-71 |
| 14/03/26 | H | CS Northridge | 93-78 |
| 08/03/26 | H | UC Davis | 79-69 OT |
| 06/03/26 | H | Cal Poly | 107-85 |
| 01/03/26 | H | UC Santa Barbara | 64-60 |
| 27/02/26 | A | CS Northridge | 68-67 |
| 22/02/26 | H | UC San Diego | 69-71 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 82.0 | 82.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 67.0 | 67.0 | - |
| Point differential | +15.0 | +15.0 | - |
| Avg total | 149.0 | 149.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 91.0 | 91.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 61.7 | 61.7 | - |
| Point differential | +29.3 | +29.3 | - |
| Avg total | 152.7 | 152.7 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 3 |  SMU Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.7 | 68.3 | +24.3 |
| 4 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.3 | 69.7 | +22.7 |
| 7 |  NC State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 64.7 | +21.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 68.3 | +20.0 |
| 10 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 11 | Stanford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 67.0 | +15.0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 74.0 | +12.3 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Duke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 60.3 | +29.7 |
| 15 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 16 |  Miami (FL) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 79.7 | 61.7 | +18.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 87.0 | -9.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Riverside | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 53.5 | +33.5 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 3 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 4 |  UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 5 |  CSU Bakersfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 72.3 | +19.3 |
| 6 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 |  UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 82.5 | 93.5 | -11.0 |
| 9 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 10 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
| 11 |  CS Northridge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 72.5 | 87.0 | -14.5 |
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