Tarleton hosts Alcorn State on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Tarleton the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win largely because of their 2-1 record, 84.0 points per game and only 71.0 points allowed, while Alcorn State sits at 0-3, 66.0 points per game and 95.7 points allowed. Tarleton's season shows a 2-0 home record, 81.0 points per game and 58.5 points allowed at home, and their last five games include a 76-57 win over Texas Dallas, a 90-96 loss to San Diego Toreros and an 86-60 win over Cameron. Alcorn State's road record is 0-2, 57.5 points per game and 96.5 points allowed, and their last five games feature a 57-94 loss to Murray State, an 83-94 loss to Howard and a 58-99 loss to Ole Miss. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 86-64 score, 150.0 total points, a 97% chance Tarleton will win and a 3% chance Alcorn State will win; the home line is -14.5 with a 75% probability of covering, the over line is 151.5 with a 46% probability of the over, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. Tarleton's dominant defensive numbers suggest they will keep Alcorn State well below the projected 64 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tarleton winWon
96.9%fair 1.03
Best odds1.08
Implied88.1%
Edge+8.8pp
Alcorn State winLost
3.1%fair 32.01
Best odds10.50
Implied11.9%
Edge-8.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Tarleton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
58.4%
@ 1.50-3.1pp
Under 146.5
41.6%
@ 2.40+3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
46.1%
@ 1.90-3.9pp
Under 151.5
53.9%
@ 1.90+3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
34.1%
@ 2.45-3.4pp
Under 156.5
65.9%
@ 1.47+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Tarleton total 79Actual: Tarleton under 79
Over 79
77.2%
Under 79
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 83 · main lineActual: Tarleton under 83
Over 83
62.8%
@ 1.88+13.6pp
Under 83
37.2%
@ 1.85-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Tarleton total 87Actual: Tarleton under 87
Over 87
46.1%
Under 87
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorn State total 64.5Actual: Alcorn State over 64.5
Over 64.5
47.3%
@ 1.38-18.2pp
Under 64.5
52.7%
@ 2.62+18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Alcorn State total 68.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State over 68.5
Over 68.5
31.9%
@ 1.86-18.1pp
Under 68.5
68.1%
@ 1.85+18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Alcorn State total 72.5Actual: Alcorn State under 72.5
Over 72.5
19.3%
@ 2.62-15.2pp
Under 72.5
80.7%
@ 1.38+15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.38
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Tarleton -17.5Actual: Alcorn State +17.5
TARL -17.5
66.1%
@ 2.40+27.7pp
ALCO +17.5
33.9%
@ 1.50-27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
TARL
Betano
2.40
ALCO
Betano
1.50
Spread Tarleton -14.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State +14.5
TARL -14.5
75.2%
@ 1.90+25.6pp
ALCO +14.5
24.8%
@ 1.90-25.6pp
Best 5 market prices
TARL
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
ALCO
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Tarleton -11.5Actual: Alcorn State +11.5
TARL -11.5
82.6%
@ 1.68+23.2pp
ALCO +11.5
17.4%
@ 2.27-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TARL
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.55
ALCO
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
TarletonAlcorn State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Tarleton -13
79.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Lost
Tarleton -12
82.2%
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Lost
Tarleton -12.5
80.3%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.65
-
-
+28.6pp
Lost
Tarleton -15.5
72.3%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Lost
Tarleton -15
74.4%
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
Tarleton -14
77.2%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Tarleton -13.5
77.8%
1.77
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Lost
Tarleton -14.5
75.2%
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
+25.6pp
Lost
Tarleton -11.5
82.6%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 70
74.0%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Tarleton -10.5
84.7%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 69
70.5%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
-
-
+20.3pp
Push
Tarleton -9.5
86.6%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Tarleton -8.5
88.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Tarleton -7.5
90.0%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 69.5
71.6%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Alcorn State under 70.5
74.8%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Alcorn State under 71.5
77.9%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Alcorn State under 72.5
80.7%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Alcorn State under 73.5
83.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Tarleton (regulation)
96.3%
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betano
1.07
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Tarleton over 80.5
71.5%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Tarleton over 79.5
74.8%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Tarleton over 78.5
77.9%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Tarleton over 77.5
80.8%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Tarleton over 74.5
88.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Tarleton win
96.9%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.05
+8.8pp
Won
Tarleton over 72.5
91.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Tarleton over 70.5
94.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 159.5
72.4%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.2%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
70.3%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Alcorn State over 51.5
89.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Alcorn State over 53.5
85.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Alcorn State over 55.5
79.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Alcorn State over 57.5
73.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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