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Tarleton vs Alcorn State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 86-64
Projected total 150.0
Final 73-69
29-33 44-36
Position#120
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game71.0
Vs
97%
■ TARL 97%■ ALCO 3%
Pythia win probability
Position#389
Record0-3
FormWLLLL
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game95.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Tarleton hosts Alcorn State on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Tarleton the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win largely because of their 2-1 record, 84.0 points per game and only 71.0 points allowed, while Alcorn State sits at 0-3, 66.0 points per game and 95.7 points allowed. Tarleton's season shows a 2-0 home record, 81.0 points per game and 58.5 points allowed at home, and their last five games include a 76-57 win over Texas Dallas, a 90-96 loss to San Diego Toreros and an 86-60 win over Cameron. Alcorn State's road record is 0-2, 57.5 points per game and 96.5 points allowed, and their last five games feature a 57-94 loss to Murray State, an 83-94 loss to Howard and a 58-99 loss to Ole Miss. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 86-64 score, 150.0 total points, a 97% chance Tarleton will win and a 3% chance Alcorn State will win; the home line is -14.5 with a 75% probability of covering, the over line is 151.5 with a 46% probability of the over, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. Tarleton's dominant defensive numbers suggest they will keep Alcorn State well below the projected 64 points.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tarleton winWon
96.9%fair 1.03
Best odds1.08
Implied88.1%
Edge+8.8pp
Alcorn State winLost
3.1%fair 32.01
Best odds10.50
Implied11.9%
Edge-8.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TarletonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Abilene Christian
#264
W
65-62 OT
65
62
+3
H17/02
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
W
78-74
78
74
+4
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A27/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A01/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
60-65
60
65
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Cameron
#399
W
86-60
86
60
+26
H03/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A07/11
NCAA
Texas Dallas
#380
W
76-57
76
57
+19
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
22-26
36-32
44-36
34-38
32-32
40-48
28-35
44-44
29-40
38-42
28-29
32-36
25-39
53-45
45-34
41-26
46-32
36-50
37-22
39-35
148.3Avg total
74.4Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)84.071.0155.0+13.067%
Season at home (2)81.058.5139.5+22.5100%
Season away (1)90.096.0186.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)74.473.9148.3+0.540%
Last 5 (5)78.072.4150.4+5.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)67.582.2149.8-14.80%
vs Similar (15)70.773.7144.4-3.127%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)88.368.5156.8+19.883%
This opponent (Alcorn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Alcorn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jackson State
#306
W
83-65
83
65
+18
H21/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
87-92 OT
87
92
-5
A27/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
51-72
51
72
-21
A28/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
48-83
48
83
-35
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A09/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
56-65
56
65
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#4
L
58-99
58
99
-41
A03/11
NCAA
Howard
#180
L
83-94
83
94
-11
H06/11
NCAA
Murray State
#25
L
57-94
57
94
-37
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-34
49-31
41-41
35-35
22-36
29-36
38-23
29-41
19-37
29-46
32-31
45-34
26-22
30-43
31-52
27-47
32-47
51-47
30-51
27-43
146.0Avg total
66.7Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)66.095.7161.7-29.70%
Season at home (1)83.094.0177.0-11.00%
Season away (2)57.596.5154.0-39.00%
Last 10 (10)66.779.3146.0-12.630%
Last 5 (5)66.283.4149.6-17.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)65.682.1147.7-16.523%
vs Similar (2)84.577.0161.5+7.550%
vs Weaker (2)70.565.0135.5+5.5100%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
58.4%
@ 1.50-3.1pp
Under 146.5
41.6%
@ 2.40+3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
46.1%
@ 1.90-3.9pp
Under 151.5
53.9%
@ 1.90+3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
34.1%
@ 2.45-3.4pp
Under 156.5
65.9%
@ 1.47+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Tarleton total 79Actual: Tarleton under 79
Over 79
77.2%
Under 79
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 83 · main lineActual: Tarleton under 83
Over 83
62.8%
@ 1.88+13.6pp
Under 83
37.2%
@ 1.85-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Tarleton total 87Actual: Tarleton under 87
Over 87
46.1%
Under 87
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorn State total 64.5Actual: Alcorn State over 64.5
Over 64.5
47.3%
@ 1.38-18.2pp
Under 64.5
52.7%
@ 2.62+18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Alcorn State total 68.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State over 68.5
Over 68.5
31.9%
@ 1.86-18.1pp
Under 68.5
68.1%
@ 1.85+18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Alcorn State total 72.5Actual: Alcorn State under 72.5
Over 72.5
19.3%
@ 2.62-15.2pp
Under 72.5
80.7%
@ 1.38+15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Tarleton -17.5Actual: Alcorn State +17.5
TARL -17.5
66.1%
@ 2.40+27.7pp
ALCO +17.5
33.9%
@ 1.50-27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
TARL
Betano
2.40
ALCO
Betano
1.50
Spread Tarleton -14.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State +14.5
TARL -14.5
75.2%
@ 1.90+25.6pp
ALCO +14.5
24.8%
@ 1.90-25.6pp
Best 5 market prices
TARL
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
ALCO
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Tarleton -11.5Actual: Alcorn State +11.5
TARL -11.5
82.6%
@ 1.68+23.2pp
ALCO +11.5
17.4%
@ 2.27-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TARL
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.55
ALCO
Betano
2.27

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: -6.9-6.92nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -5.2-5.2
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: -6.9-6.92nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -5.2-5.2
TarletonAlcorn State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TarletonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Abilene Christian
#264
L
22-26
22
26
-4
H17/02
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A27/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A01/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Cameron
#399
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H03/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
W
46-32
46
32
+14
A07/11
NCAA
Texas Dallas
#380
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H11/11
NCAA
66.1Avg total
33.6Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)35.832.968.7+2.950%37%
Last 30 at home (16)37.931.869.7+6.256%44%
Last 30 away (14)33.334.267.5-0.943%29%
Last 10 (10)33.632.566.1+1.140%30%
Last 5 (5)36.231.267.4+5.060%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.236.068.2-3.80%25%
vs Similar (15)31.231.863.0-0.647%20%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)45.337.783.0+7.767%83%
This opponent (Alcorn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Alcorn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jackson State
#306
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A27/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
22-36
22
36
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
19-37
19
37
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A09/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
26-22
26
22
+4
A10/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#4
L
31-52
31
52
-21
A03/11
NCAA
Howard
#180
L
32-47
32
47
-15
H06/11
NCAA
Murray State
#25
L
30-51
30
51
-21
A11/11
NCAA
67.9Avg total
30.5Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)31.638.870.4-7.220%40%
Last 30 at home (11)31.534.465.9-2.818%27%
Last 30 away (19)31.641.372.9-9.721%47%
Last 10 (10)30.537.467.9-6.930%40%
Last 5 (5)30.240.670.8-10.440%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)30.939.570.4-8.715%42%
vs Similar (2)35.543.579.0-8.00%50%
vs Weaker (2)37.024.061.0+13.0100%0%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Alcorn State win
TARL win
no forecast
@ 1.14
ALCO win
no forecast
@ 5.80
1st half Spread Tarleton -6.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State +6.5
TARL -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ALCO +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Tarleton 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Tarleton under 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
Alcorn State 1st half total 32 · main lineActual: Alcorn State over 32
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 72Actual: Under 72
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Tarleton -7.5Actual: Alcorn State +7.5
TARL -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
ALCO +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Tarleton -5.5Actual: Alcorn State +5.5
TARL -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
ALCO +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.32
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Spread Tarleton -8.5Actual: Alcorn State +8.5
TARL -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
ALCO +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Tarleton -4.5Actual: Alcorn State +4.5
TARL -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
ALCO +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Tarleton -9.5Actual: Alcorn State +9.5
TARL -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
ALCO +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.57
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Tarleton (regulation)
TARL
no forecast
@ 1.20
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
ALCO
no forecast
@ 5.70

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TARL win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
ALCO win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TARL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ALCO leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Tarleton -1379.8%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
---+29.7ppLost
Tarleton -1282.2%1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
---+29.0ppLost
Tarleton -12.580.3%1.75
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.65
--+28.6ppLost
Tarleton -15.572.3%2.10
Betano
2.10
----+27.3ppLost
Tarleton -1574.4%1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
---+26.9ppLost
Tarleton -1477.2%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
---+26.6ppLost
Tarleton -13.577.8%1.77
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
---+26.2ppLost
Tarleton -14.575.2%1.89
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
+25.6ppLost
Tarleton -11.582.6%1.61
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.55
---+23.2ppLost
Alcorn State under 7074.0%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
----+23.2ppWon
Tarleton -10.584.7%1.47
Betano
1.47
----+21.8ppLost
Alcorn State under 6970.5%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
--+20.3ppPush
Tarleton -9.586.6%1.39
Betano
1.39
----+20.2ppLost
Tarleton -8.588.4%1.33
Betano
1.33
----+19.1ppLost
Tarleton -7.590.0%1.27
Betano
1.27
----+17.5ppLost
Alcorn State under 69.571.6%1.70
Betano
1.70
----+17.3ppWon
Alcorn State under 70.574.8%1.55
Betano
1.55
----+16.4ppWon
Alcorn State under 71.577.9%1.47
Betano
1.47
----+16.2ppWon
Alcorn State under 72.580.7%1.38
Betano
1.38
----+15.2ppWon
Alcorn State under 73.583.3%1.31
Betano
1.31
----+14.4ppWon
Tarleton (regulation)96.3%1.08
Marathon Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betano
1.07
--+12.8ppWon
Tarleton over 80.571.5%1.53
Betano
1.53
----+12.3ppLost
Tarleton over 79.574.8%1.44
Betano
1.44
----+11.8ppLost
Tarleton over 78.577.9%1.36
Betano
1.36
----+11.4ppLost
Tarleton over 77.580.8%1.30
Betano
1.30
----+11.0ppLost
Tarleton over 74.588.0%1.18
Bet365
1.18
----+9.1ppLost
Tarleton win96.9%1.06
Marathon Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.05
+8.8ppWon
Tarleton over 72.591.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11
----+7.7ppWon
Tarleton over 70.594.2%1.07
Bet365
1.07
----+6.7ppWon
Under 159.572.4%1.39
Betano
1.39
----+6.0ppWon
Overtime: no99.2%1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
---+5.8ppWon
Under 158.570.3%1.37
Betano
1.37
----+3.1ppWon
Alcorn State over 51.589.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01
-----4.5ppWon
Alcorn State over 53.585.1%1.02
Bet365
1.02
-----6.1ppWon
Alcorn State over 55.579.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04
-----9.5ppWon
Alcorn State over 57.573.8%1.07
Bet365
1.07
-----13.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Tarleton wins
0
Alcorn State wins
No previous meetings.
Tarletonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HTexas Dallas76-57
07/11/26ASan Diego Toreros90-96 OT
03/11/26HCameron86-60
12/03/26AAbilene Christian78-84
06/03/26HUT Arlington60-65
01/03/26ACalifornia Baptist67-82
27/02/26AUtah Valley State72-79
21/02/26HUtah Tech72-80
20/02/26HSouthern Utah78-74
17/02/26HAbilene Christian65-62 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AMurray State57-94
06/11/26HHoward83-94
03/11/26AOle Miss58-99
10/03/26APrairie View A&M56-65
09/03/26AAlabama State77-65
06/03/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff48-83
04/03/26HMiss. Valley St.67-64
28/02/26APrairie View A&M51-72
27/02/26ATexas Southern87-92 OT
21/02/26HJackson State83-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tarleton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game84.081.090.0
Allowed / game71.058.596.0
Point differential+13.0+22.5-6.0
Avg total155.0139.5186.0
Over 151.533%0%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %33%0%100%
Alcorn State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game66.083.057.5
Allowed / game95.794.096.5
Point differential-29.7-11.0-39.0
Avg total161.7177.0154.0
Over 151.567%100%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Valley State220100%92.578.0+14.5
2 Southern Utah43175%108.264.8+43.5
3 UT Arlington43175%89.069.2+19.8
4 Tarleton32167%84.071.0+13.0
5 Utah Tech31233%83.090.0-7.0
6 Abilene Christian31233%71.083.7-12.7
7 California Baptist3030%64.382.7-18.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs43175%81.267.8+13.5
2 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
3 Prairie View A&M52340%75.482.0-6.6
4 Alabama State31233%69.778.7-9.0
5 Texas Southern31233%76.091.0-15.0
6 Florida A&M41325%77.880.8-3.0
7 Jackson State41325%66.585.8-19.2
8 Bethune-Cookman4040%71.085.5-14.5
9 Miss. Valley St.3030%62.387.0-24.7
10 Southern Univ.5050%60.488.2-27.8
11 Alcorn State3030%66.095.7-29.7
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff3030%50.3107.0-56.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Tarleton294473
Alcorn State333669
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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