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Tarleton vs Merrimack Warriors Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 12 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 76-62
34-31 42-31
Position#255
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game89.7
vs
Position#66
Record0-2
FormWWLLL
Points / game61.5
Allowed / game85.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tarleton winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Merrimack Warriors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TarletonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grand Canyon
#29
L
60-64
60
64
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H16/02
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
L
57-67
57
67
-10
A23/02
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#208
W
67-52
67
52
+15
H28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
48-68
48
68
-20
A07/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#32
L
66-71
66
71
-5
H09/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A14/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
76-96
76
96
-20
A04/11
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
60-96
60
96
-36
A06/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H09/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-37
30-27
32-32
35-32
29-23
28-44
37-25
30-27
28-36
20-32
36-35
30-36
21-30
30-25
38-48
38-48
31-47
29-49
47-28
38-49
134.7Avg total
63.7Scored
71.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)73.789.7163.3-16.033%
Season at home (1)85.077.0162.0+8.0100%
Season away (2)68.096.0164.0-28.00%
Last 10 (10)63.771.0134.7-7.330%
Last 5 (5)67.679.0146.6-11.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)60.570.4130.9-9.925%
vs Similar ◀ (8)67.566.9134.4+0.662%
vs Weaker (2)95.066.5161.5+28.5100%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marist
#80
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H16/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#240
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H22/02
NCAA
Iona
#209
W
77-70 OT
77
70
+7
A23/02
NCAA
Rider
#276
L
78-83
78
83
-5
H01/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#126
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H02/03
NCAA
Marist
#80
W
75-53
75
53
+22
A07/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#240
W
66-62 OT
66
62
+4
H13/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#112
L
55-57
55
57
-2
H15/03
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
L
66-75
66
75
-9
H04/11
NCAA
Auburn
#188
L
57-95
57
95
-38
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
25-26
35-35
29-29
30-31
29-33
31-27
42-40
36-43
30-27
43-36
32-27
43-26
32-28
27-31
24-25
31-32
33-38
33-37
22-39
35-56
134.5Avg total
66.6Scored
67.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)61.585.0146.5-23.50%
Season at home (1)66.075.0141.0-9.00%
Season away (1)57.095.0152.0-38.00%
Last 10 (10)66.667.9134.5-1.340%
Last 5 (5)63.868.4132.2-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.070.5140.5-0.550%
vs Similar ◀ (20)66.266.8133.0-0.645%
vs Weaker (8)69.959.9129.8+10.088%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.2-1.21st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -6.1-6.12nd half: -1.0-1.0
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.2-1.21st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -6.1-6.12nd half: -1.0-1.0
TarletonMerrimack Warriors
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TarletonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grand Canyon
#29
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Seattle
#252
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H16/02
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
W
29-23
29
23
+6
A23/02
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#208
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A07/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#32
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H09/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
21-30
21
30
-9
A14/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A04/11
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A06/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H09/11
NCAA
67.0Avg total
32.9Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.632.465.1+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.329.966.1+6.471%-
Last 30 away (16)29.434.764.1-5.231%-
Last 10 (10)32.934.167.0-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)34.637.672.2-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)29.934.664.5-4.730%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)34.427.962.2+6.588%-
vs Weaker (2)53.029.082.0+24.0100%-
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marist
#80
L
25-26
25
26
-1
H16/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#240
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H22/02
NCAA
Iona
#209
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A23/02
NCAA
Rider
#276
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H01/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#126
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H02/03
NCAA
Marist
#80
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A07/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#240
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H13/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#112
L
24-25
24
25
-1
H15/03
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
L
33-38
33
38
-5
H04/11
NCAA
Auburn
#188
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/11
NCAA
61.0Avg total
29.8Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.130.662.7+1.650%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.929.760.6+1.353%-
Last 30 away (15)33.331.564.8+1.947%-
Last 10 (10)29.831.261.0-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)28.631.460.0-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)34.532.066.5+2.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)30.831.462.2-0.645%-
vs Weaker (8)34.928.263.1+6.662%-
This opponent (Tarleton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Tarleton wins
0
Merrimack Warriors wins
No previous meetings.
Tarletonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/25HTexas A&M-CC85-77
06/11/25ALSU60-96
04/11/25ASMU Mustangs76-96
14/03/25ACalifornia Baptist51-55
09/03/25HUtah Valley State66-71
07/03/25ACalifornia Baptist48-68
28/02/25HAbilene Christian67-52
23/02/25AUT Arlington57-67
16/02/25HSeattle67-64
14/02/25HGrand Canyon60-64
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/25AAuburn57-95
04/11/25HSouth Dakota St.66-75
15/03/25HMount St. Mary's55-57
13/03/25HSacred Heart66-62 OT
07/03/25AMarist75-53
02/03/25HQuinnipiac73-63
01/03/25HRider78-83
23/02/25AIona77-70 OT
22/02/25HSacred Heart59-60
16/02/25HMarist60-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tarleton
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game73.785.068.0
Allowed / game89.777.096.0
Point differential-16.0+8.0-28.0
Avg total163.3162.0164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Merrimack Warriors
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game61.566.057.0
Allowed / game85.075.095.0
Point differential-23.5-9.0-38.0
Avg total146.5141.0152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Abilene Christian330100%89.763.0+26.7
2 California Baptist220100%78.068.0+10.0
3 UT Arlington32167%88.058.3+29.7
4 Utah Valley State21150%96.568.0+28.5
5 Utah Tech42250%81.079.5+1.5
6 Tarleton31233%73.789.7-16.0
7 Southern Utah2020%68.088.0-20.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena220100%72.056.0+16.0
2 Iona220100%93.082.0+11.0
3 Niagara32167%66.066.3-0.3
4 Manhattan21150%104.086.5+17.5
5 Marist21150%68.561.0+7.5
6 St. Peters21150%71.580.0-8.5
7 Sacred Heart31233%81.077.3+3.7
8 Fairfield31233%67.070.3-3.3
9 Canisius31233%67.373.3-6.0
10 Mount St. Mary's31233%63.369.7-6.3
11 Quinnipiac31233%68.384.7-16.3
12 Merrimack Warriors2020%61.585.0-23.5
13 Rider2020%53.084.0-31.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Tarleton344276
Merrimack Warriors313162
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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