PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Tennessee hosts Michigan State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Pythia rating Tennessee the clear favourite at 82% to win, a reflection of their undefeated 2-0 record and 80.0 points per game against 53.0 allowed, compared with Michigan State's 3-0 record, 88.7 points per game and 64.3 allowed; both teams have shown strong offensive output, but Tennessee's higher points per game and lower points allowed give the model a decisive edge. Tennessee has won both of its games, scoring 80.0 points per game and allowing 53.0, while Michigan State has also won all three of its games, averaging 88.7 points per game and conceding 64.3; Tennessee's home record is 2-0 with 80.0 points per game and 53.0 allowed, and its last five games include four wins and one loss, with recent victories over Radford 70-47 and Wofford 90-59, and a loss to Michigan 62-95 away; Michigan State's road record is 1-0 with 79.0 points per game and 73.0 allowed, and its last five games include four wins and one loss, with recent wins over Duke 79-73 away, Toledo 91-61 at home and Quinnipiac 96-59 at home. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 79-69 score, 147.8 total points, and a 3% chance of overtime, with Tennessee covering the spread and the over on the total. The next game will show whether Tennessee can maintain its early-season dominance.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 80.0 | 53.0 | 133.0 | +27.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 80.0 | 53.0 | 133.0 | +27.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.5 | 67.3 | 142.8 | +8.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.4 | 67.0 | 142.4 | +8.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 69.0 | 75.8 | 144.8 | -6.8 | 40% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 78.6 | 74.9 | 153.4 | +3.7 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 80.5 | 60.7 | 141.2 | +19.7 | 91% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 88.7 | 64.3 | 153.0 | +24.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.5 | 60.0 | 153.5 | +33.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 79.0 | 73.0 | 152.0 | +6.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.0 | 72.5 | 155.5 | +10.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.2 | 65.8 | 147.0 | +15.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 75.0 | 78.8 | 153.8 | -3.8 | 40% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 71.6 | 69.6 | 141.1 | +2.0 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (18) | 84.4 | 67.8 | 152.2 | +16.6 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.8 | 31.5 | 67.3 | +4.3 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 37.2 | 29.5 | 66.7 | +7.8 | 82% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.9 | 34.2 | 68.1 | -0.2 | 46% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.2 | 32.2 | 65.4 | +1.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.6 | 33.4 | 66.0 | -0.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 34.6 | 37.2 | 71.8 | -2.6 | 60% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 36.1 | 32.9 | 69.1 | +3.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 35.9 | 27.1 | 63.0 | +8.8 | 91% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.9 | 33.0 | 69.9 | +3.8 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 39.1 | 31.3 | 70.4 | +7.8 | 72% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 33.5 | 35.6 | 69.1 | -2.1 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.2 | 31.8 | 71.0 | +7.4 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 28.0 | 67.4 | +11.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 34.0 | 35.8 | 69.8 | -1.8 | 40% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 33.4 | 34.3 | 67.7 | -0.9 | 29% | - |
| vs Weaker (18) | 39.0 | 31.8 | 70.8 | +7.2 | 72% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Radford | 70-47 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Wofford | 90-59 |
| 29/03/26 | A | Michigan | 62-95 |
| 28/03/26 | A | Iowa State | 76-62 |
| 22/03/26 | A | Virginia | 79-72 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 78-56 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Vanderbilt | 68-75 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Auburn | 72-62 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Vanderbilt | 82-86 |
| 03/03/26 | A | South Carolina | 78-59 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Duke | 79-73 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Toledo | 91-61 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Quinnipiac | 96-59 |
| 28/03/26 | A | Uconn | 63-67 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Louisville | 77-69 |
| 19/03/26 | H | North Dakota St | 92-67 |
| 14/03/26 | H | UCLA | 84-88 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Michigan | 80-90 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Rutgers | 91-87 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Indiana | 77-64 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 80.0 | 80.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 53.0 | 53.0 | - |
| Point differential | +27.0 | +27.0 | - |
| Avg total | 133.0 | 133.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 88.7 | 93.5 | 79.0 |
| Allowed / game | 64.3 | 60.0 | 73.0 |
| Point differential | +24.3 | +33.5 | +6.0 |
| Avg total | 153.0 | 153.5 | 152.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 66.7 | +36.3 |
| 5 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 6 |  Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 59.7 | +31.0 |
| 7 |  Auburn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 56.0 | +27.5 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 |  Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 11 |  Florida | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 65.3 | +16.7 |
| 12 |  Georgia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.3 | +12.7 |
| 13 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 14 |  Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 68.3 | +16.3 |
| 15 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 75.3 | +5.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Rutgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.0 | +32.0 |
| 3 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 5 | Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 64.3 | +24.3 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 |
| 9 |  Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 11 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 12 |  Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 103.3 | 66.3 | +37.0 |
| 13 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 14 |  Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Purdue | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 71.3 | +6.7 |
| 17 |  Penn State | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.6 | 75.6 | +2.0 |
| 18 |  Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 |
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