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Tennessee vs Tennessee State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 88-64
Projected total 151.7
Final 83-78
42-37 41-41
Position#55
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game53.0
Tennessee 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ TENN 98%■ TENN 2%
Pythia win probability
Tennessee State
USA
Position#186
Record2-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game104.7
Allowed / game76.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Tennessee v Tennessee State
13 Nov 2026
TENN83
TENN78
20 Nov 2025
TENN89
TENN60
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The NCAA clash on 13 November 2026 pits Tennessee against Tennessee State, with the model designating Tennessee as the clear favourite thanks to its flawless 2-0 record and dominant 80.0 points per game while allowing only 53.0, a stark contrast to Tennessee State's 2-1 record, 104.7 points scored and 76.0 allowed; Tennessee's 98% win probability reflects that disparity. Tennessee has won both games it has played, averaging 80.0 points and conceding 53.0, and it has also won its two home contests with the same averages, while its last five games show four wins and one loss, including a 70-47 victory over Radford and a 90-59 win over Wofford; Tennessee State has won two of its three games, scoring 104.7 points and allowing 76.0, with three wins and two losses in its last five, highlighted by a 123-73 win over Fisk and a 127-61 win over EWU Phantoms. Their sole previous meeting ended 89-60 in favour of Tennessee. Pythia projects a 88-64 score, with Tennessee winning 98% of the time and Tennessee State 2%; the projected total of 151.7 points sits below the 154.5 line, giving a 43% chance of an over, and the game has a 1% overtime probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tennessee winWon
97.9%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tennessee State winLost
2.1%fair 48.40
Best odds65.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TennesseeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina
#278
W
78-59
78
59
+19
A03/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
82-86
82
86
-4
H07/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H12/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A13/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
78-56
78
56
+22
H20/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
79-72
79
72
+7
A22/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
76-62
76
62
+14
A28/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
62-95
62
95
-33
A29/03
NCAA
Wofford
#253
W
90-59
90
59
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Radford
#310
W
70-47
70
47
+23
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-28
38-31
22-32
60-54
25-32
47-30
31-31
37-44
51-32
27-24
36-31
43-41
34-33
42-29
26-48
36-47
34-31
56-28
33-24
37-23
142.8Avg total
75.5Scored
67.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)80.053.0133.0+27.0100%
Season at home (2)80.053.0133.0+27.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.567.3142.8+8.270%
Last 5 (5)75.467.0142.4+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.075.8144.8-6.840%
vs Similar ◀ (14)78.674.9153.4+3.757%
vs Weaker (11)80.560.7141.2+19.791%
This opponent (Tennessee State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tennessee StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lindenwood
#162
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H20/02
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#118
W
80-53
80
53
+27
H21/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
W
79-71
79
71
+8
A27/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
67-42
67
42
+25
A28/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
68-55
68
55
+13
H07/03
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
93-67
93
67
+26
H08/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
74-108
74
108
-34
A20/03
NCAA
Murray State
#25
L
64-94
64
94
-30
H02/11
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#531
W
127-61
127
61
+66
H06/11
NCAA
Fisk
#476
W
123-73
123
73
+50
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-42
47-38
40-26
40-27
33-38
46-33
35-21
32-21
36-28
32-27
55-34
38-33
29-55
45-53
35-46
29-48
54-28
73-33
54-36
69-37
156.8Avg total
86.4Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)104.776.0180.7+28.767%
Season at home (3)104.776.0180.7+28.767%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.470.4156.8+16.080%
Last 5 (5)96.280.6176.8+15.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)69.0101.0170.0-32.00%
vs Similar ◀ (9)78.369.2147.6+9.178%
vs Weaker (19)84.873.1157.8+11.779%
This opponent (Tennessee) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
50.4%
@ 1.52-11.5pp
Under 151.5
49.6%
@ 2.45+11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
38.1%
@ 2.00-11.4pp
Under 156.5
61.9%
@ 1.90+11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5
Over 161.5
27.0%
@ 2.75-8.6pp
Under 161.5
73.0%
@ 1.47+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40

📊 3. Team Totals

Tennessee total 89Actual: Tennessee under 89
Over 89
46.5%
Under 89
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tennessee total 93 · main lineActual: Tennessee under 93
Over 93
30.6%
@ 1.85-19.4pp
Under 93
69.4%
@ 1.85+19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Tennessee total 97Actual: Tennessee under 97
Over 97
17.8%
Under 97
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tennessee State total 59Actual: Tennessee State over 59
Over 59
68.0%
Under 59
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tennessee State total 63 · main lineActual: Tennessee State over 63
Over 63
51.9%
@ 1.83+1.4pp
Under 63
48.1%
@ 1.87-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Tennessee State total 67Actual: Tennessee State over 67
Over 67
35.5%
Under 67
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Tennessee -33Actual: Tennessee State +33
TENN -33
no forecast
@ 2.30
TENN +33
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
TENN
Bet365
2.30
TENN
Bet365
1.55
Spread Tennessee -30 · main lineActual: Tennessee State +30
TENN -30
no forecast
@ 1.95
TENN +30
no forecast
@ 1.88
Best 5 market prices
TENN
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
TENN
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Spread Tennessee -27Actual: Tennessee State +27
TENN -27
no forecast
@ 1.60
TENN +27
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
TENN
Bet365
1.60
TENN
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-13-6+0+6+131st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +7.2+7.22nd half: +10.1+10.1
-13-6+0+6+131st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +7.2+7.22nd half: +10.1+10.1
TennesseeTennessee State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TennesseeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina
#278
W
40-28
40
28
+12
A03/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
22-32
22
32
-10
H07/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H12/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A13/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
51-32
51
32
+19
H20/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A22/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A28/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
26-48
26
48
-22
A29/03
NCAA
Wofford
#253
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Radford
#310
W
33-24
33
24
+9
H10/11
NCAA
65.4Avg total
33.2Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)35.831.567.3+4.367%17%
Last 30 at home (17)37.229.566.7+7.882%18%
Last 30 away (13)33.934.268.1-0.246%15%
Last 10 (10)33.232.265.4+1.060%10%
Last 5 (5)32.633.466.0-0.880%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.637.271.8-2.660%20%
vs Similar ◀ (14)36.132.969.1+3.250%29%
vs Weaker (11)35.927.163.0+8.891%0%
This opponent (Tennessee State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tennessee StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lindenwood
#162
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H20/02
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#118
W
40-26
40
26
+14
H21/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A27/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
35-21
35
21
+14
A28/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H07/03
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
55-34
55
34
+21
H08/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
29-55
29
55
-26
A20/03
NCAA
Murray State
#25
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H02/11
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#531
W
54-28
54
28
+26
H06/11
NCAA
Fisk
#476
W
54-36
54
36
+18
H10/11
NCAA
76.7Avg total
41.3Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)38.135.373.4+2.757%50%
Last 30 at home (16)40.535.475.9+5.162%56%
Last 30 away (14)35.335.370.6+0.050%43%
Last 10 (10)41.335.476.7+5.960%60%
Last 5 (5)45.439.885.2+5.660%100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.050.582.5-18.50%100%
vs Similar ◀ (9)36.934.371.2+2.644%33%
vs Weaker (19)39.334.273.5+5.168%53%
This opponent (Tennessee) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Tennessee win
TENN win
no forecast
@ 1.03
TENN win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread Tennessee -16.5 · main lineActual: Tennessee State +16.5
TENN -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
TENN +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.98
Tennessee 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: Tennessee under 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Tennessee State 1st half total 28.5 · main lineActual: Tennessee State over 28.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Spread Tennessee -17.5Actual: Tennessee State +17.5
TENN -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
TENN +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Tennessee -15.5Actual: Tennessee State +15.5
TENN -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
TENN +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Tennessee -18.5Actual: Tennessee State +18.5
TENN -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
TENN +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Tennessee -14.5Actual: Tennessee State +14.5
TENN -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
TENN +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Tennessee -19.5Actual: Tennessee State +19.5
TENN -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
TENN +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Tennessee -13.5Actual: Tennessee State +13.5
TENN -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
TENN +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Tennessee (regulation)
TENN
no forecast
@ 1.03
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
TENN
no forecast
@ 12.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TENN win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
TENN win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TENN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TENN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Tennessee under 93.570.5%1.83
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.78		---+20.1ppWon
Tennessee under 94.573.9%1.65
Betano
1.65		----+18.9ppWon
Tennessee under 96.580.0%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+18.3ppWon
Tennessee under 95.577.1%1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54		---+17.7ppWon
Tennessee under 98.585.2%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+16.7ppWon
Tennessee under 97.582.7%1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38		---+16.6ppWon
Tennessee under 99.587.4%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+13.6ppWon
Under 160.570.9%1.49
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.45		---+8.8ppLost
Under 161.573.0%1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40		---+8.6ppWon
Under 162.575.0%1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.35		---+8.2ppWon
Under 163.577.0%1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31		---+8.1ppWon
Under 16070.3%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+7.8ppLost
Under 16274.5%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+7.5ppWon
Under 16172.4%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+7.5ppPush
Under 16376.5%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+6.5ppWon
Tennessee (regulation)97.5%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+5.7ppWon
Under 165.580.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+4.4ppWon
Under 180.596.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.5ppWon
Under 175.593.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+3.4ppWon
Under 170.587.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+2.9ppWon
Tennessee State over 57.572.6%1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31		---+2.5ppWon
Tennessee over 72.594.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.5ppWon
Tennessee State over 55.578.9%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+1.1ppWon
Tennessee State over 51.588.5%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+1.0ppWon
Tennessee over 73.593.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.8ppWon
Tennessee State under 79.594.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.7ppWon
Tennessee State over 52.586.5%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+0.4ppWon
Tennessee State over 53.584.2%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+0.4ppWon
Tennessee State under 77.591.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+0.4ppLost
Tennessee over 75.590.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.7ppWon
Tennessee State under 75.588.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.1ppLost
Over 130.590.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.1ppWon
Tennessee -9.590.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.3ppLost
Tennessee State under 73.584.3%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----2.9ppLost
Tennessee over 77.586.0%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----3.0ppWon
Tennessee State under 71.579.0%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----3.3ppLost
Tennessee State under 69.572.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----3.3ppLost
Tennessee State under 72.581.8%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----4.3ppLost
Over 135.584.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----5.3ppWon
Tennessee over 79.581.0%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----5.6ppWon
Tennessee -14.581.4%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----7.6ppLost
Tennessee over 81.575.1%1.12
Bet365
1.12		-----8.0ppWon
Tennessee over 82.571.7%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----8.8ppWon
Over 140.575.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----9.4ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Tennessee wins
0
Tennessee State wins
DateGameScore
21/11/25Tennessee v Tennessee State89-60
Tennesseelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HRadford70-47
03/11/26HWofford90-59
29/03/26AMichigan62-95
28/03/26AIowa State76-62
22/03/26AVirginia79-72
20/03/26HMiami (Ohio)78-56
13/03/26AVanderbilt68-75
12/03/26HAuburn72-62
07/03/26HVanderbilt82-86
03/03/26ASouth Carolina78-59
Tennessee Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HFisk123-73
06/11/26HEWU Phantoms127-61
02/11/26HMurray State64-94
20/03/26AIowa State74-108
08/03/26HMorehead State93-67
07/03/26HUT Martin68-55
28/02/26AUT Martin67-42
27/02/26ASoutheast Missouri State79-71
21/02/26HSiu Edwardsville80-53
20/02/26HLindenwood89-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tennessee
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game80.080.0-
Allowed / game53.053.0-
Point differential+27.0+27.0-
Avg total133.0133.0-
Over 156.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Tennessee State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeLWW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game104.7104.7-
Allowed / game76.076.0-
Point differential+28.7+28.7-
Avg total180.7180.7-
Over 156.5100%100%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU330100%94.052.7+41.3
3 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
4 Mississippi St.330100%95.363.0+32.3
5 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
6 Vanderbilt330100%90.759.7+31.0
7 Auburn220100%83.556.0+27.5
8 Tennessee220100%80.053.0+27.0
9 Alabama330100%102.076.0+26.0
10 South Carolina330100%78.754.7+24.0
11 Florida330100%82.065.3+16.7
12 Georgia330100%83.070.3+12.7
13 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
14 Arkansas32167%84.768.3+16.3
15 Oklahoma32167%76.365.7+10.7
16 Kentucky32167%81.075.3+5.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ohio Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tennessee State32167%104.776.0+28.7
2 Southeast Missouri State32167%81.374.0+7.3
3 Lindenwood42250%88.570.5+18.0
4 Siu Edwardsville42250%77.868.5+9.2
5 Tennessee Tech42250%92.090.0+2.0
6 UT Martin31233%84.780.0+4.7
7 Morehead State31233%76.383.3-7.0
8 Southern Indiana41325%78.066.5+11.5
9 Western Illinois41325%74.573.2+1.2
10 Eastern Illinois41325%69.080.0-11.0
11 UALR3030%73.386.3-13.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Tennessee424183
Tennessee State374178
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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