Texas A&M faces Louisiana Monroe on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Texas A&M as the clear favourite, giving them a 100% win probability because their season record of 2-0, 100.5 points per game and 66.5 allowed per game places them at 31st in the league, while Louisiana Monroe sits at 186th with a 1-1 record, 88.5 points per game and 69.0 allowed per game. Texas A&M has won both of its games, including a 104-67 victory over Northern Kentucky and a 97-66 win over Alabama State, and has not lost at home, whereas Louisiana Monroe has only one win, a 99-55 triumph over Champion Christian Tigers, and has suffered four defeats in its last five games, including a 78-83 loss to Central Michigan. Their only previous meeting, on 7 November 2022, saw Texas A&M win 87-54. Pythia projects a 99-65 score for Texas A&M, a total of 164.6 points, and a 50% chance that the total of 164.5 will be hit. The model gives Texas A&M a 100% probability of covering the spread, and the overtime probability is 0%. The game will conclude with Texas A&M's dominant 99-65 win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Texas A&M winWon
99.6%fair 1.00
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+4.7pp
Louisiana Monroe winLost
0.4%fair 226.45
Best odds100.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-4.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Texas A&M) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Over 159.5
Over 159.5
62.4%
Under 159.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 164.5 · main lineActual: Over 164.5
Over 164.5
50.2%
@ 1.79-7.5pp
Under 164.5
49.8%
@ 2.35+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.54
Under
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.18
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 169.5Actual: Over 169.5
Over 169.5
37.9%
@ 2.03-8.9pp
Under 169.5
62.1%
@ 1.79+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
📊 3. Team Totals
Texas A&M total 95.5Actual: Texas A&M over 95.5
Over 95.5
64.2%
@ 1.27-9.2pp
Under 95.5
35.8%
@ 3.50+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.50
Texas A&M total 99.5 · main lineActual: Texas A&M over 99.5
Over 99.5
48.4%
@ 1.79-10.6pp
Under 99.5
51.6%
@ 2.40+10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.20
1xBet
1.79
Texas A&M total 103.5Actual: Texas A&M over 103.5
Over 103.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under 103.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.72
Louisiana Monroe total 61Actual: Louisiana Monroe over 61
Over 61
68.0%
Under 61
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisiana Monroe total 65 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe over 65
Over 65
51.9%
@ 1.85+1.6pp
Under 65
48.1%
@ 1.87-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Louisiana Monroe total 69Actual: Louisiana Monroe under 69
Over 69
35.5%
Under 69
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Texas A&M -37.5Actual: Texas A&M -37.5
TEXA -37.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
LOUI +37.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.78
LOUI
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
Spread Texas A&M -34.5 · main lineActual: Texas A&M -34.5
TEXA -34.5
no forecast
@ 1.79
LOUI +34.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.60
LOUI
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.79
Spread Texas A&M -31.5Actual: Texas A&M -31.5
TEXA -31.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
LOUI +31.5
no forecast
@ 2.72
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
LOUI
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.45
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Texas A&MLouisiana Monroe
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 174
72.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Under 173
70.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Texas A&M (regulation)
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Under 175
74.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Push
Under 173.5
71.1%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Under 174.5
73.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Under 175.5
75.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Under 176
76.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Under 176.5
77.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 178.5
80.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 71.5
72.9%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Texas A&M win
99.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Under 183.5
88.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Texas A&M over 83.5
94.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Texas A&M over 81.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Texas A&M over 82.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 80.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 51.5
92.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Texas A&M over 84.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 78.5
90.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Texas A&M over 85.5
91.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 53.5
88.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 52.5
90.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 76.5
86.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Texas A&M -16.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 57.5
78.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 72.5
76.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 59.5
72.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 74.5
81.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Texas A&M over 86.5
89.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 75.5
84.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Texas A&M over 87.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 54.5
86.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Over 143.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Texas A&M -18.5
90.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 55.5
84.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 56.5
81.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Texas A&M over 88.5
85.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 58.5
75.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Texas A&M over 89.5
83.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Texas A&M -21.5
85.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 148.5
84.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Texas A&M over 91.5
77.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Texas A&M over 90.5
80.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Texas A&M over 92.5
74.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Texas A&M -23.5
81.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Texas A&M over 93.5
71.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Over 153.5
75.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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