Texas A&M faces Oklahoma State on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Texas A&M at 90% because of their perfect 3-0 season, 103.0 points per game and 66.7 allowed per game, while Oklahoma State sits 2-0, 104.5 points per game and 64.0 allowed per game; the Aggies' 3-0 home record, 103.0 points per game and 66.7 allowed per game, plus a 4-1 record in the last five games, contrasts with the Cowboys' 3-2 record in their last five games and a 2-0 overall record; Texas A&M's recent wins over Louisiana Monroe 108-67, Northern Kentucky 104-67 and Alabama State 97-66 demonstrate their offensive potency, whereas Oklahoma State's recent victories over Queens Royals 118-68 and Incarnate Word 91-60 and a loss to TCU 88-95 show a more mixed performance; the teams have met twice before, Oklahoma State winning both times, most recently 87-63 on 9 November 2025; Pythia projects a 90-76 score, a 166.3 total, a -7.0 spread with a 76% chance the home team covers, a 177.5 total with a 24% chance of the over, and a 2% overtime probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Texas A&M winWon
89.9%fair 1.11
Best odds1.28
Implied75.9%
Edge+13.9pp
Oklahoma State winLost
10.1%fair 9.85
Best odds4.00
Implied24.1%
Edge-13.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Texas A&M) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 170.5Actual: Under 170.5
Over 170.5
39.4%
@ 1.37-28.9pp
Under 170.5
60.6%
@ 3.05+28.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.80
Over/Under 175.5 · main lineActual: Under 175.5
Over 175.5
28.3%
@ 1.85-26.9pp
Under 175.5
71.7%
@ 2.15+26.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.85
Over/Under 180.5Actual: Under 180.5
Over 180.5
19.0%
@ 2.15-25.1pp
Under 180.5
81.0%
@ 1.73+25.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathon Be
2.03
WilliamHill
2.00
Under
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
📊 3. Team Totals
Texas A&M total 89Actual: Texas A&M under 89
Over 89
56.2%
Under 89
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas A&M total 93 · main lineActual: Texas A&M under 93
Over 93
39.5%
@ 1.87-10.2pp
Under 93
60.5%
@ 1.85+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Texas A&M total 97Actual: Texas A&M under 97
Over 97
24.7%
Under 97
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oklahoma State total 81.5Actual: Oklahoma State under 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.40
Oklahoma State total 86 · main lineActual: Oklahoma State under 86
Over 86
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 86
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Oklahoma State total 89.5Actual: Oklahoma State under 89.5
Over 89.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
Under 89.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.37
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Texas A&M -11.5Actual: Texas A&M -11.5
TEXA -11.5
60.9%
@ 2.55+22.4pp
OKLA +11.5
39.1%
@ 1.55-22.4pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.27
OKLA
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
Spread Texas A&M -8.5 · main lineActual: Texas A&M -8.5
TEXA -8.5
70.9%
@ 1.94+21.2pp
OKLA +8.5
29.1%
@ 1.91-21.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
OKLA
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.80
Spread Texas A&M -5.5Actual: Texas A&M -5.5
TEXA -5.5
79.5%
@ 1.72+21.5pp
OKLA +5.5
20.5%
@ 2.28-21.5pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Be
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.57
OKLA
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Texas A&MOklahoma State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 175
71.1%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Won
Under 176
73.2%
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Won
Under 177
75.2%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.94
SBO
1.88
-
+27.9pp
Won
Under 176.5
73.7%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
+27.7pp
Won
Under 178
77.1%
1.90
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
+27.6pp
Won
Under 177.5
75.7%
1.90
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
+27.3pp
Won
Under 175.5
71.7%
2.03
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.85
-
+26.9pp
Won
Under 178.5
77.5%
1.85
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
+26.8pp
Won
Under 179
78.9%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.82
SBO
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
+26.7pp
Won
Under 181
82.3%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+26.5pp
Won
Under 181.5
82.6%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
+26.0pp
Won
Under 180
80.7%
1.73
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
+26.0pp
Won
Under 179.5
79.3%
1.78
SBO
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
+25.9pp
Won
Under 180.5
81.0%
1.69
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
+25.1pp
Won
Under 182
83.8%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Texas A&M -5
81.6%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Texas A&M -5.5
79.5%
1.64
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.57
+21.5pp
Won
Texas A&M -8.5
70.9%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
+21.2pp
Won
Texas A&M -8
73.1%
1.88
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.79
-
+21.0pp
Won
Texas A&M -4
84.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Texas A&M -4.5
82.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Texas A&M -6
79.0%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.63
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Texas A&M -3.5
84.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Texas A&M -7
76.1%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.70
-
+19.8pp
Won
Texas A&M -3
86.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Texas A&M (regulation)
88.4%
1.31
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.30
Marathon Bet
1.26
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Texas A&M -7.5
73.9%
1.79
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
+19.5pp
Won
Texas A&M -2.5
86.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Texas A&M -6.5
76.8%
1.72
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
SBO
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.71
+18.7pp
Won
Texas A&M -2
88.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Texas A&M -1.5
88.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Texas A&M +1.5
90.9%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Texas A&M -1
89.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Texas A&M win
89.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Bet365
1.26
SBO
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.25
+13.9pp
Won
Texas A&M +2.5
92.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Texas A&M under 96.5
72.9%
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Texas A&M under 97.5
76.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Texas A&M under 99.5
81.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Texas A&M under 98.5
79.1%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Texas A&M +7.5
96.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Texas A&M +12.5
98.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.8%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Texas A&M over 74.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Texas A&M over 73.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Texas A&M over 72.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Texas A&M over 75.5
93.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Texas A&M over 76.5
92.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Texas A&M over 77.5
90.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Texas A&M over 78.5
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Texas A&M over 79.5
86.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Texas A&M over 80.5
84.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Texas A&M over 81.5
81.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Texas A&M over 82.5
79.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Texas A&M over 83.5
75.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Texas A&M over 84.5
72.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 66.5
82.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Oklahoma State +22.5
75.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Over 153.5
78.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 67.5
79.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 68.5
76.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-14.8pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 69.5
73.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-17.6pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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