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Toledo vs Northern Illinois Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 79-69
36-31 43-38
Position#156
Record14-13
FormWLWWL
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game77.5
Toledo 🏆
USA
vs
Position#342
Record9-17
FormWLLWL
Points / game70.9
Allowed / game76.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Toledo v Northern Illinois
24 Feb 2026
TOLE79
NORT69
01 Feb 2025
TOLE89
NORT85
27 Feb 2024
TOLE72
NORT75
08 Jan 2022
TOLE94
NORT63
22 Dec 2020
TOLE78
NORT55
04 Feb 2020
TOLE61
NORT66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Northern Illinois winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ball State
#288
W
73-55
73
55
+18
H31/01
NCAA
Leonesa
#19
W
73-54
73
54
+19
H01/02
Segunda FEB
Kent State
#52
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H04/02
NCAA
Ponferrada
#14
L
63-89
63
89
-26
A07/02
Segunda FEB
James Madison
#169
L
71-73
71
73
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
90-79
90
79
+11
A12/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
70-80
70
80
-10
A14/02
NCAA
Caja 87
#4
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
H15/02
Segunda FEB
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
94-75
94
75
+19
H21/02
NCAA
Jaen
#23
L
64-67
64
67
-3
A22/02
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
39-27
0-0
34-28
25-13
12-12
15-19
21-10
0-0
36-29
0-0
36-46
16-29
11-25
16-13
20-22
0-0
32-32
0-0
39-41
0-0
50-41
0-0
40-38
0-0
35-37
0-0
35-43
13-13
8-16
30-17
18-23
0-0
51-29
0-0
43-46
11-21
19-14
13-17
21-15
147.6Avg total
75.0Scored
72.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)81.377.5158.9+3.852%
Season at home (13)84.774.8159.5+9.969%
Season away (14)78.280.1158.3-1.936%
Last 10 (10)75.072.6147.6+2.450%
Last 5 (5)79.676.0155.6+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.284.4157.6-11.220%
vs Similar (13)80.282.5162.8-2.331%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)82.571.8154.3+10.682%
This opponent (Northern Illinois) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IllinoisUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass
#189
W
70-68
70
68
+2
H17/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
77-80
77
80
-3
A21/01
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
53-58
53
58
-5
A24/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
85-65
85
65
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
61-85
61
85
-24
A31/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
75-74
75
74
+1
A07/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
52-68
52
68
-16
H12/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
46-88
46
88
-42
A14/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
72-70
72
70
+2
A17/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
66-74
66
74
-8
H21/02
NCAA
1H
2H
40-33
30-35
30-32
47-48
22-29
31-29
35-30
50-35
38-40
23-45
35-37
40-37
19-38
33-30
22-51
24-37
29-35
43-35
25-37
41-37
138.7Avg total
65.7Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)70.976.2147.0-5.335%
Season at home (11)79.173.7152.8+5.455%
Season away (15)64.977.9142.8-13.120%
Last 10 (10)65.773.0138.7-7.340%
Last 5 (5)62.274.8137.0-12.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)64.178.8143.0-14.717%
vs Similar (5)81.670.8152.4+10.880%
vs Weaker (2)114.563.0177.5+51.5100%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: -6.7-6.72nd half2nd half: +0.3+0.32nd half: -0.6-0.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: -6.7-6.72nd half2nd half: +0.3+0.32nd half: -0.6-0.6
ToledoNorthern Illinois
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ball State
#288
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H31/01
NCAA
Leonesa
#19
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H01/02
Segunda FEB
Kent State
#52
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Ponferrada
#14
L
27-54
27
54
-27
A07/02
Segunda FEB
James Madison
#169
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A07/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A12/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A14/02
NCAA
Caja 87
#4
L
21-29
21
29
-8
H15/02
Segunda FEB
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H21/02
NCAA
Jaen
#23
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
Segunda FEB
69.6Avg total
35.8Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.037.576.5+1.657%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.335.876.1+4.569%-
Last 30 away (17)38.138.876.8-0.747%-
Last 10 (10)35.833.869.6+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)37.434.271.6+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.446.083.4-8.640%-
vs Similar (13)37.336.373.6+1.054%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)40.935.876.7+5.164%-
This opponent (Northern Illinois) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IllinoisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass
#189
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H17/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A21/01
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
22-29
22
29
-7
A24/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H28/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A31/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
19-38
19
38
-19
H12/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
22-51
22
51
-29
A14/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A17/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
25-37
25
37
-12
H21/02
NCAA
65.7Avg total
29.5Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.137.770.8-4.627%-
Last 30 at home (13)35.536.672.1-1.238%-
Last 30 away (17)31.238.569.8-7.318%-
Last 10 (10)29.536.265.7-6.720%-
Last 5 (5)26.039.665.6-13.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)29.739.268.8-9.513%-
vs Similar (5)38.237.075.2+1.260%-
vs Weaker (2)59.522.582.0+37.0100%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toledo wins
3
Northern Illinois wins
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/26AJaen64-67
21/02/26HEastern Michigan94-75
15/02/26HCaja 8780-79 OT
14/02/26ABowling Green70-80
12/02/26AWestern Michigan90-79
07/02/26AJames Madison71-73
07/02/26APonferrada63-89
04/02/26HKent State72-75
01/02/26HLeonesa73-54
31/01/26HBall State73-55
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26HOhio66-74
17/02/26ABuffalo72-70
14/02/26ACentral Michigan46-88
12/02/26HBowling Green52-68
07/02/26AGeorgia State75-74
31/01/26AMiami (Ohio)61-85
28/01/26HWestern Michigan85-65
24/01/26ABall State53-58
21/01/26AOhio77-80
17/01/26HUMass70-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW52%
HomeWWWLW69%
AwayLLLWL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %52%69%36%
Points / game81.384.778.2
Allowed / game77.574.880.1
Point differential+3.8+9.9-1.9
Avg total158.9159.5158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%46%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won30% (10)50% (4)17% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Northern Illinois
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL35%
HomeLWWLL55%
AwayLLWLW20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261115
Win %35%55%20%
Points / game70.979.164.9
Allowed / game76.273.777.9
Point differential-5.3+5.4-13.1
Avg total147.0152.8142.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%36%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)100% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)28280100%91.674.1+17.5
2 Akron2722581%89.474.5+15.0
3 Kent State2719870%85.479.9+5.5
4 Buffalo27161159%78.675.0+3.6
5 Bowling Green28161257%81.871.2+10.5
6 UMass28151354%80.977.3+3.6
7 Ohio28151354%77.176.6+0.5
8 Toledo27141352%81.377.5+3.8
9 Northern Illinois2691735%70.976.2-5.3
10 Eastern Michigan29101934%70.973.4-2.6
11 Central Michigan2791833%73.676.6-3.1
12 Western Michigan2791833%74.679.9-5.3
13 Ball State2781930%66.070.3-4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo364379
Northern Illinois313869
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