PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
UC Davis will host Alabama State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates UC Davis as the clear favourite, assigning a 94% chance of victory, a reflection of their 2-1 record, 73.7 points scored and 66.7 allowed per game, and a league position of 174 compared with Alabama State's 1-2 record, 69.7 points scored and 78.7 allowed per game, and a league position of 291. UC Davis has won two of its three games, including a 81-69 win over Incarnate Word and a 65-52 win over Menlo, but fell 75-79 to North Alabama; Alabama State's lone win came at home against Panhandle St, while losses to Georgia Gwinnett and Texas A&M, the latter a 66-97 defeat on the road, have left the Tigers struggling. The teams have not faced each other this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 84-66 score for UC Davis, a total of 150.1 points, and a 1% chance of overtime. The model gives UC Davis a 94% probability of covering any spread, while Alabama State has only a 6% chance of winning.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 73.7 | 66.7 | 140.3 | +7.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 73.7 | 66.7 | 140.3 | +7.0 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.8 | 74.7 | 150.5 | +1.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.0 | 71.0 | 145.0 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 71.5 | 75.8 | 147.2 | -4.2 | 25% |
| vs Similar (11) | 78.5 | 79.9 | 158.4 | -1.5 | 45% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 76.2 | 73.0 | 149.2 | +3.2 | 69% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 69.7 | 78.7 | 148.3 | -9.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 71.5 | 69.5 | 141.0 | +2.0 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 66.0 | 97.0 | 163.0 | -31.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.6 | 75.0 | 146.6 | -3.4 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 67.4 | 75.6 | 143.0 | -8.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 68.2 | 78.4 | 146.5 | -10.2 | 9% |
| vs Similar (12) | 72.6 | 80.2 | 152.8 | -7.7 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 78.2 | 68.4 | 146.6 | +9.8 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.1 | 33.4 | 69.5 | +2.7 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.5 | 30.9 | 67.4 | +5.6 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.6 | 36.6 | 72.2 | -1.0 | 54% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.7 | 33.4 | 70.1 | +3.3 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.0 | 32.4 | 68.4 | +3.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 34.8 | 36.5 | 71.2 | -1.8 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 36.7 | 35.1 | 71.8 | +1.6 | 64% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 36.5 | 32.8 | 69.2 | +3.7 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.6 | 36.9 | 72.5 | -1.2 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 35.2 | 32.0 | 67.2 | +3.2 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 36.0 | 40.6 | 76.6 | -4.6 | 47% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.8 | 35.2 | 71.0 | +0.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.4 | 32.6 | 65.0 | -0.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 36.0 | 35.9 | 71.9 | +0.1 | 73% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 35.7 | 40.6 | 76.2 | -4.9 | 25% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 35.8 | 32.8 | 68.6 | +3.0 | 60% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Incarnate Word | 81-69 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Menlo | 65-52 |
| 03/11/26 | H | North Alabama | 75-79 |
| 13/03/26 | A | CS Fullerton | 70-82 |
| 12/03/26 | H | UC Santa Barbara | 79-73 |
| 08/03/26 | A | UC Irvine | 69-79 OT |
| 06/03/26 | A | Long Beach State | 76-70 OT |
| 27/02/26 | H | Hawaii | 73-77 |
| 21/02/26 | A | UC Riverside | 78-73 |
| 20/02/26 | A | CS Fullerton | 92-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Panhandle St | 66-60 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Georgia Gwinnett Grizzlies | 77-79 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Texas A&M | 66-97 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Alcorn State | 65-77 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Grambling St. | 63-65 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Southern Univ. | 64-71 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 89-88 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Florida A&M | 63-76 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Bethune-Cookman | 71-82 |
| 17/02/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 92-55 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 73.7 | 73.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 66.7 | 66.7 | - |
| Point differential | +7.0 | +7.0 | - |
| Avg total | 140.3 | 140.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 69.7 | 71.5 | 66.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.7 | 69.5 | 97.0 |
| Point differential | -9.0 | +2.0 | -31.0 |
| Avg total | 148.3 | 141.0 | 163.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Riverside | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 53.5 | +33.5 |
| 2 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 3 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 4 |  UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 5 |  CSU Bakersfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 72.3 | +19.3 |
| 6 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 | UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 82.5 | 93.5 | -11.0 |
| 9 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 10 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
| 11 |  CS Northridge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 72.5 | 87.0 | -14.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 62.7 | +17.3 |
| 2 |  Prairie View A&M | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.8 | 80.2 | -1.5 |
| 3 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 4 | Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 5 |  Texas Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 91.0 | -15.0 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Jackson State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.5 | 85.8 | -19.2 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.3 | 87.0 | -24.7 |
| 10 |  Southern Univ. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.2 | 87.5 | -27.2 |
| 11 |  Alcorn State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 66.0 | 95.7 | -29.7 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 50.3 | 107.0 | -56.7 |
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