UC Davis faces Incarnate Word on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring UC Davis at 91% because the Aggies have a 1-1 record, average 70.0 points scored and 65.5 allowed, and sit 217th in the league, while the Roadrunners are 0-3, averaging 58.0 points and conceding 78.7, ranked 368th; UC Davis is projected to win 81-65, a total of 145.7 points, and the model gives a 64% chance that the Aggies will cover the home line of -11.5, while the over on the 145.5 line has a 50% probability and a 2% chance of overtime. UC Davis has played two games this season, winning 1 and losing 1, with a 1-1 home record, scoring 70.0 and allowing 65.5 points; their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent home victory over Menlo 65-52 on 5 November and a loss to North Alabama 75-79 on 2 November. Incarnate Word has played three games, losing all, with a 0-2 road record, scoring 58.0 and allowing 78.7 points; their last five games feature one win and four losses, including a recent loss to UTEP 60-79 on 8 November.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UC Davis winWon
91.2%fair 1.10
Best odds1.15
Implied85.0%
Edge+6.2pp
Incarnate Word winLost
8.8%fair 11.37
Best odds6.50
Implied15.0%
Edge-6.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 22:27 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UC Davis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 140.5Actual: Over 140.5
Over 140.5
62.5%
@ 1.47-0.9pp
Under 140.5
37.5%
@ 2.60+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 145.5 · main lineActual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
50.3%
@ 1.91+0.3pp
Under 145.5
49.7%
@ 1.91-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Under 150.5
Over 150.5
38.2%
@ 2.60+1.6pp
Under 150.5
61.8%
@ 1.47-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
UC Davis total 74Actual: UC Davis over 74
Over 74
75.9%
Under 74
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Davis total 78 · main lineActual: UC Davis over 78
Over 78
61.2%
@ 1.85+11.2pp
Under 78
38.8%
@ 1.85-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
UC Davis total 82Actual: UC Davis under 82
Over 82
44.5%
Under 82
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Incarnate Word total 63Actual: Incarnate Word over 63
Over 63
58.0%
Under 63
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Incarnate Word total 67 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word over 67
Over 67
41.6%
@ 1.87-8.2pp
Under 67
58.4%
@ 1.85+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.83
Incarnate Word total 71Actual: Incarnate Word under 71
Over 71
26.7%
Under 71
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UC Davis -14.5Actual: Incarnate Word +14.5
UC D -14.5
53.8%
@ 2.35+14.1pp
INCA +14.5
46.2%
@ 1.54-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UC D
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
INCA
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
Spread UC Davis -11.5 · main lineActual: UC Davis -11.5
UC D -11.5
64.2%
@ 1.92+14.1pp
INCA +11.5
35.8%
@ 1.93-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UC D
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
INCA
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread UC Davis -8.5Actual: UC Davis -8.5
UC D -8.5
73.7%
@ 1.69+13.5pp
INCA +8.5
26.3%
@ 2.35-13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UC D
Marathon Be
1.69
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
INCA
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UC DavisIncarnate Word
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UC Davis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Incarnate Word win
UC D win
no forecast
@ 1.36
INCA win
no forecast
@ 3.20
2nd half Spread UC Davis -4.5 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word +4.5
UC D -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
INCA +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UC Davis (regulation)
UC D
no forecast
@ 1.40
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
INCA
no forecast
@ 3.20
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UC Davis -9
72.9%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
UC Davis -8.5
73.7%
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
UC Davis -7.5
76.6%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
UC Davis -8
75.9%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
UC Davis -7
78.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
UC Davis -6.5
79.3%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
UC Davis -9.5
70.7%
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
+12.0pp
Won
UC Davis -5.5
81.8%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
UC Davis -6
81.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
UC Davis (regulation)
89.9%
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
UC Davis -5
83.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
UC Davis -4.5
84.2%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
UC Davis -3.5
86.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
UC Davis -4
86.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
UC Davis over 74.5
73.5%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
UC Davis over 73.5
76.7%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 70.5
70.9%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 71.5
74.2%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
UC Davis over 71.5
82.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
UC Davis over 75.5
70.1%
1.46
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
UC Davis -1.5
90.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 72.5
77.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
UC Davis win
91.2%
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
BetVictor
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+6.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.0%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.8pp
-
Incarnate Word under 75.5
85.0%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
UC Davis +8.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
UC Davis +3.5
94.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
UC Davis over 69.5
87.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
UC Davis over 72.5
79.6%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 170.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 125.5
89.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Under 165.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 52.5
89.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Under 160.5
81.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
73.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 130.5
82.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Under 155.5
72.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 54.5
85.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 57.5
77.2%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
UC Davis under 87.5
75.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 56.5
80.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 58.5
74.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Incarnate Word +21.5
70.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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