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UCF Knights vs Yale Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 81-76
Projected total 157.2
Final 87-75
39-42 48-33
Position#143
Record1-0
FormLWLLW
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game95.0
UCF Knights 🏆
USA
Vs
70%
30%
■ UCF 70%■ YALE 30%
Pythia win probability
Yale
USA
Position#242
Record1-0
FormWWWLW
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game62.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The UCF Knights host Yale on 6 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model sees as a 70% win for UCF, 30% for Yale, with the Knights as the favourite; the projected score is 81-76 and the projected total 157.2 points, a spread of -9.5 for UCF with a 37% chance to cover and a total line of 152.5 with a 60% over probability, and a 5% overtime chance. UCF enters the game with a 1-0 record, averaging 96.0 points scored and 95.0 allowed, while Yale also sits 1-0, averaging 72.0 points scored and 62.0 allowed; UCF's single home game was a 96-95 win over Florida Gulf Coast, and Yale's single away game was a 72-62 win over Howard. In their last five outings UCF went 2-3, including a 71-75 loss to UCLA and a 59-81 loss to Arizona, whereas Yale went 4-1, with wins over Howard and Cornell and a 84-88 loss to Penn. The Knights' season record and recent close win set them up as the clear edge in this contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCF Knights winWon
69.7%fair 1.44
Best odds1.21
Implied79.2%
Edge-9.5pp
Yale winLost
30.3%fair 3.30
Best odds4.90
Implied20.8%
Edge+9.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UCF KnightsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
TCU
#77
W
82-71
82
71
+11
H18/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
73-71
73
71
+2
A22/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
97-84
97
84
+13
A25/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
86-87
86
87
-1
H01/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
104-111 OT
104
111
-7
H04/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
62-77
62
77
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
66-65 OT
66
65
+1
H11/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
59-81
59
81
-22
A12/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
71-75
71
75
-4
A20/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#203
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-28
40-43
41-36
32-35
52-28
45-56
42-56
44-31
40-45
54-49
23-32
39-45
26-27
32-31
30-46
29-35
27-35
44-40
36-38
46-44
161.3Avg total
79.6Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)96.095.0191.0+1.0100%
Season at home (1)96.095.0191.0+1.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.681.7161.3-2.150%
Last 5 (5)70.878.6149.4-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)73.479.7153.1-6.343%
vs Similar (19)82.680.5163.1+2.263%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)79.069.2148.2+9.8100%
This opponent (Yale) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
YaleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Howard
#55
W
87-81 OT
87
81
+6
A10/02
NCAA
Dartmouth
#272
W
83-70
83
70
+13
A14/02
NCAA
Harvard
#133
W
76-75 OT
76
75
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
L
69-72
69
72
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
60-54
60
54
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Princeton
#337
W
78-53
78
53
+25
H07/03
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
88-76
88
76
+12
H14/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#234
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-32
33-39
38-30
45-40
30-34
36-32
35-40
39-30
30-35
39-37
34-25
26-29
32-30
46-23
49-42
39-34
39-41
36-34
40-28
32-34
147.2Avg total
77.1Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)72.062.0134.0+10.0100%
Season at home (1)72.062.0134.0+10.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.170.1147.2+7.080%
Last 5 (5)76.466.6143.0+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (4)83.584.8168.2-1.275%
vs Weaker (25)80.668.9149.5+11.780%
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
71.7%
@ 1.47+8.3pp
Under 147.5
28.3%
@ 2.60-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
60.5%
@ 1.90+10.2pp
Under 152.5
39.5%
@ 1.90-10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
48.5%
@ 2.55+11.0pp
Under 157.5
51.5%
@ 1.50-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

UCF Knights total 77Actual: UCF Knights over 77
Over 77
67.7%
Under 77
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCF Knights total 81 · main lineActual: UCF Knights over 81
Over 81
52.0%
@ 1.85+1.7pp
Under 81
48.0%
@ 1.87-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UCF Knights total 85Actual: UCF Knights over 85
Over 85
35.9%
Under 85
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yale total 67.5Actual: Yale over 67.5
Over 67.5
78.4%
@ 1.39+13.5pp
Under 67.5
21.6%
@ 2.57-13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.57
Yale total 71.5 · main lineActual: Yale over 71.5
Over 71.5
65.3%
@ 1.85+15.3pp
Under 71.5
34.7%
@ 1.91-15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Yale total 75.5Actual: Yale under 75.5
Over 75.5
50.1%
@ 2.60+15.3pp
Under 75.5
49.9%
@ 1.39-15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UCF Knights -12.5Actual: Yale +12.5
UCF -12.5
27.6%
@ 2.35-12.2pp
YALE +12.5
72.4%
@ 1.54+12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UCF
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
YALE
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
Spread UCF Knights -9.5 · main lineActual: UCF Knights -9.5
UCF -9.5
37.3%
@ 1.90-12.7pp
YALE +9.5
62.7%
@ 1.90+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UCF
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
YALE
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread UCF Knights -6.5Actual: UCF Knights -6.5
UCF -6.5
48.2%
@ 1.54-12.4pp
YALE +6.5
51.8%
@ 2.35+12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UCF
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
YALE
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -1.2-1.21st half: +2.8+2.82nd half2nd half: -0.4-0.42nd half: +3.9+3.9
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -1.2-1.21st half: +2.8+2.82nd half2nd half: -0.4-0.42nd half: +3.9+3.9
UCF KnightsYale
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UCF KnightsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
TCU
#77
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H18/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A22/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
52-28
52
28
+24
A25/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
42-56
42
56
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H04/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
23-32
23
32
-9
A07/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H11/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A12/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A20/03
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#203
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H03/11
NCAA
73.0Avg total
35.9Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73
Last 30 (30)37.237.574.7-0.347%57%
Last 30 at home (19)39.337.777.0+1.653%68%
Last 30 away (11)33.537.370.8-3.736%36%
Last 10 (10)35.937.173.0-1.230%60%
Last 5 (5)28.435.664.0-7.20%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.937.071.9-2.143%57%
vs Similar (19)37.338.575.8-1.242%53%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)40.833.874.5+7.075%75%
This opponent (Yale) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
YaleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Howard
#55
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A10/02
NCAA
Dartmouth
#272
W
38-30
38
30
+8
A14/02
NCAA
Harvard
#133
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A14/02
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A27/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
34-25
34
25
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Princeton
#337
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H07/03
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H14/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#234
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H03/11
NCAA
70.2Avg total
36.5Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73
Last 30 (30)38.533.371.8+5.270%43%
Last 30 at home (17)40.533.974.4+6.676%53%
Last 30 away (13)35.832.568.3+3.462%31%
Last 10 (10)36.533.770.2+2.860%30%
Last 5 (5)38.833.272.0+5.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (4)38.838.076.8+0.875%50%
vs Weaker (25)38.532.971.4+5.668%44%
This opponent (UCF Knights) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Yale win
UCF win
no forecast
@ 1.29
YALE win
no forecast
@ 3.60
1st half Spread UCF Knights -5.5 · main lineActual: Yale +5.5
UCF -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
YALE +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 73 · main lineActual: Over 73
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
UCF Knights 1st half total 39 · main linePush
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Yale 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: Yale over 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.27
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread UCF Knights -6.5Actual: Yale +6.5
UCF -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
YALE +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread UCF Knights -4.5Actual: Yale +4.5
UCF -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
YALE +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Spread UCF Knights -7.5Actual: Yale +7.5
UCF -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
YALE +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread UCF Knights -3.5Actual: Yale +3.5
UCF -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
YALE +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Spread UCF Knights -8.5Actual: Yale +8.5
UCF -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
YALE +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread UCF Knights -2.5Actual: Yale +2.5
UCF -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
YALE +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UCF Knights (regulation)
UCF
no forecast
@ 1.34
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
YALE
no forecast
@ 3.65

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UCF win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
YALE win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UCF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: YALE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Yale over 69.572.2%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+14.4ppWon
Yale over 67.578.4%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+13.5ppWon
Yale over 68.575.4%1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47		---+12.9ppWon
Yale +1271.5%1.57
Bet365
1.57		----+12.6ppPush
Yale +12.572.4%1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53		---+12.2ppWon
Yale over 66.581.2%1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33		---+12.1ppWon
Yale +13.575.2%1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45		---+11.7ppWon
Yale +14.577.9%1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38		---+11.3ppWon
Yale +1374.5%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+11.1ppWon
Yale +1477.3%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+11.0ppWon
Yale +15.580.4%1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32		---+10.8ppWon
Yale +1579.9%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+10.4ppWon
Yale +16.582.7%1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27		---+10.1ppWon
Yale +1682.2%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+9.9ppWon
Yale over 64.586.0%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+9.9ppWon
Yale +1784.4%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+9.1ppWon
Yale +17.584.7%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+8.6ppWon
Over 14871.0%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+8.5ppWon
Yale over 62.590.0%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+8.5ppWon
Over 147.571.7%1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45		---+8.3ppWon
Over 146.573.7%1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40		---+8.1ppWon
Over 14675.2%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+7.6ppWon
Over 145.575.7%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34		---+7.6ppWon
Over 14773.1%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+7.5ppWon
Yale over 61.591.6%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+7.2ppWon
Over 14577.1%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+7.1ppWon
Yale over 60.593.0%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+6.4ppWon
Yale over 58.595.3%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+6.3ppWon
Over 144.577.5%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+6.1ppWon
Yale over 56.596.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+5.8ppWon
Over 142.581.1%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+5.8ppWon
Yale over 54.598.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+5.2ppWon
Over 127.596.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+4.2ppWon
Over 132.593.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+3.9ppWon
Over 137.588.3%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+3.9ppWon
UCF Knights under 98.595.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.7ppWon
Overtime: no95.3%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+3.6pp-
UCF Knights under 100.596.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.2ppWon
UCF Knights under 96.593.0%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+2.8ppWon
UCF Knights under 94.590.0%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+1.7ppWon
UCF Knights under 90.581.3%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+0.8ppWon
UCF Knights under 92.586.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+0.6ppWon
UCF Knights under 91.583.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+0.0ppWon
UCF Knights under 88.575.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.6ppWon
Under 177.588.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----2.6ppWon
Under 172.582.5%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----6.5ppWon
Under 167.573.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----10.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UCF Knights wins
0
Yale wins
No previous meetings.
UCF Knightslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HFlorida Gulf Coast96-95 OT
20/03/26AUCLA71-75
12/03/26AArizona59-81
11/03/26HCincinnati66-65 OT
07/03/26AWest Virginia62-77
04/03/26HOklahoma State104-111 OT
01/03/26HBaylor86-87
25/02/26ABrigham Young97-84
22/02/26AUtah Utes73-71
18/02/26HTCU82-71
Yalelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HHoward72-62
15/03/26HPenn84-88 OT
14/03/26HCornell88-76
07/03/26HPrinceton78-53
28/02/26AColumbia60-54
27/02/26ACornell69-72
21/02/26HPenn74-70
14/02/26AHarvard76-75 OT
14/02/26ADartmouth83-70
10/02/26AHoward87-81 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UCF Knights
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game96.096.0-
Allowed / game95.095.0-
Point differential+1.0+1.0-
Avg total191.0191.0-
Over 152.5100%100%-
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %100%100%-
Yale
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game72.072.0-
Allowed / game62.062.0-
Point differential+10.0+10.0-
Avg total134.0134.0-
Over 152.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 West Virginia110100%91.046.0+45.0
2 Baylor220100%98.059.0+39.0
3 Houston110100%94.055.0+39.0
4 TCU110100%98.059.0+39.0
5 Colorado110100%94.059.0+35.0
6 Oklahoma State110100%91.060.0+31.0
7 Kansas110100%95.065.0+30.0
8 Texas Tech220100%76.050.0+26.0
9 Cincinnati220100%80.058.5+21.5
10 Brigham Young110100%94.083.0+11.0
11 Arizona State110100%75.065.0+10.0
12 Utah Utes220100%66.560.0+6.5
13 UCF Knights110100%96.095.0+1.0
14 Arizona21150%89.584.0+5.5
15 Kansas State1010%66.068.0-2.0
16 Iowa State1010%76.080.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ivy League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Dartmouth220100%88.056.0+32.0
2 Harvard110100%73.045.0+28.0
3 Princeton220100%69.052.0+17.0
4 Yale110100%72.062.0+10.0
5 Columbia21150%95.571.0+24.5
6 Cornell21150%75.078.0-3.0
7 Brown1010%55.059.0-4.0
8 Penn1010%70.0112.0-42.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UCF Knights394887
Yale423375
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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