UCLA hosts North Florida on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UCLA as the clear favourite, assigning a 98% chance of victory largely because the Bruins have a 1-0 record, average 84.0 points scored and 75.0 points allowed per game, and sit 172nd in the league, while North Florida also holds a 1-0 record but averages 71.0 points scored and 63.0 points allowed, positioned 176th. UCLA's single game was a 84-75 win at home, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 84-75 triumph over Arizona at home; North Florida's lone outing was a 71-63 win away, and their last five games feature two wins and three losses, with a recent 71-63 victory over California Baptist away. The teams have met once before, with UCLA winning 98-63 on 17 November 2021. Pythia projects a 93-68 scoreline, a total of 161.0 points, and a 66% probability that the total will exceed the 154.5 line; the model also estimates a 1% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCLA winWon
97.9%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge+3.4pp
North Florida winLost
2.1%fair 48.01
Best odds100.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UCLA) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
76.2%
@ 1.44+9.7pp
Under 149.5
23.8%
@ 3.00-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 154.5 · main lineActual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
65.6%
@ 1.88+14.1pp
Under 154.5
34.4%
@ 2.10-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathon Be
1.67
Under
Bet365
2.10
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.90
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Over 159.5
Over 159.5
53.6%
@ 2.35+13.1pp
Under 159.5
46.4%
@ 1.58-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
UCLA total 90Actual: UCLA over 90
Over 90
61.6%
Under 90
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCLA total 94 · main lineActual: UCLA over 94
Over 94
44.9%
@ 1.85-5.3pp
Under 94
55.1%
@ 1.86+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
UCLA total 98Actual: UCLA over 98
Over 98
29.2%
Under 98
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 58Actual: North Florida over 58
Over 58
85.4%
Under 58
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 62 · main lineActual: North Florida over 62
Over 62
73.9%
@ 1.85+23.4pp
Under 62
26.1%
@ 1.87-23.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
North Florida total 66Actual: North Florida under 66
Over 66
58.8%
Under 66
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UCLA -35Actual: UCLA -35
UCLA -35
no forecast
@ 2.14
NORT +35
no forecast
@ 1.74
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.98
NORT
Marathon Be
1.74
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Spread UCLA -32 · main lineActual: UCLA -32
UCLA -32
no forecast
@ 1.96
NORT +32
no forecast
@ 2.05
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Be
1.92
Bet365
1.71
NORT
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.79
Marathon Be
1.79
Spread UCLA -29Actual: UCLA -29
UCLA -29
no forecast
@ 1.47
NORT +29
no forecast
@ 2.55
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Bet365
1.47
NORT
Bet365
2.55
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UCLANorth Florida
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
North Florida over 59.5
80.7%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Won
North Florida over 61
77.2%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
+26.6pp
Won
North Florida over 62.5
71.5%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.02
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
+24.9pp
Won
North Florida over 61.5
74.8%
1.87
BetVictor
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
+24.5pp
Won
North Florida over 60.5
77.9%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
+24.3pp
Won
North Florida over 62
73.9%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
North Florida over 58.5
83.4%
1.50
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
North Florida over 57.5
85.7%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
North Florida over 56.5
87.9%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
North Florida over 55.5
89.8%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
North Florida over 54.5
91.4%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
North Florida over 53.5
92.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Over 147
81.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Over 152.5
70.0%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.66
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Over 146
82.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Over 146.5
81.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
North Florida over 52.5
94.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
North Florida over 51.5
95.2%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Over 151.5
72.2%
1.56
Marathon Bet
1.65
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Over 150.5
74.2%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Over 143.5
86.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Over 149.5
76.2%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Over 148
79.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
North Florida over 50.5
96.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Over 148.5
78.1%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Over 152
71.6%
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Over 147.5
79.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Over 150
75.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 151
73.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
UCLA under 101.5
81.1%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
UCLA under 103.5
86.0%
1.19
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Over 149
77.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
UCLA under 99.5
75.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Over 145.5
83.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
UCLA (regulation)
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Over 138.5
91.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
UCLA under 104.5
88.1%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
UCLA under 100.5
78.2%
1.29
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Over 133.5
95.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
UCLA under 98.5
71.8%
1.42
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Over 128.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
89.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Over 135.5
94.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Over 130.5
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
UCLA under 102.5
83.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
UCLA over 75.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
UCLA win
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
UCLA over 77.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
UCLA over 76.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
UCLA over 79.5
91.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
UCLA over 78.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
UCLA over 80.5
89.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
UCLA over 81.5
87.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
UCLA over 83.5
82.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
UCLA over 82.5
85.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
UCLA over 84.5
80.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
UCLA over 85.5
77.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
UCLA over 87.5
70.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 180.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
UCLA over 86.5
73.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Under 178.5
86.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
UCLA -12.5
85.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Under 175.5
81.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Lost
UCLA -13.5
83.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
North Florida under 77.5
82.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Won
Under 173.5
78.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Lost
Under 170.5
72.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Lost
North Florida under 75.5
77.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
UCLA -17.5
73.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.2pp
Won
UCLA -18.5
70.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.4pp
Won
North Florida under 73.5
70.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-19.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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