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UMass vs Maine Black Bears Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Projected 81-62
Projected total 142.8
Scheduled
Position#165
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game64.3
Vs
95%
■ UMAS 95%■ MAIN 5%
Pythia win probability
Position#338
Record1-4
FormLWLLL
Points / game64.2
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · UMass v Maine Black Bears
21 Nov 2026
UMAS v MAIN
upcoming
20 Dec 2019
UMAS74
MAIN53
Sections
Game preview & prediction
UMass host Maine Black Bears in the NCAA. Pythia makes UMass the favourite at 95% and projects 81-62, about 143 points in all. Overtime chance: 1%. UMass are 2-1 this season (66.0 scored, 64.3 allowed a game), form WLWLW; Maine Black Bears are 1-4 this season (64.2 scored, 72.0 allowed a game), form LWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMass win
94.8%fair 1.06
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Maine Black Bears win
5.2%fair 19.11
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMassUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
82-86 OT
82
86
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
73-74 OT
73
74
-1
A25/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A28/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
94-82
94
82
+12
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
87-83
87
83
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
67-77
67
77
-10
A13/03
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A03/11
NCAA
Boston College
#50
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A06/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-41
41-45
34-29
34-39
34-21
27-40
37-28
25-53
37-39
57-43
37-39
50-44
34-43
33-34
38-28
33-32
35-37
20-34
31-37
41-25
150.2Avg total
74.0Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)66.064.3130.3+1.767%
Season at home (1)72.062.0134.0+10.0100%
Season away (2)63.065.5128.5-2.550%
Last 10 (10)74.076.2150.2-2.240%
Last 5 (5)70.470.6141.0-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)78.683.6162.2-5.025%
vs Similar (10)80.980.9161.8+0.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)76.772.0148.7+4.773%
This opponent (Maine Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Maine Black BearsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
70-59
70
59
+11
A26/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
L
67-74
67
74
-7
A28/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
L
56-67
56
67
-11
H03/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
L
58-60
58
60
-2
A07/03
NCAA
Providence
#112
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A03/11
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#188
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A06/11
NCAA
Manhattan
#320
L
62-68
62
68
-6
H08/11
NCAA
Rhode Island
#40
L
65-71
65
71
-6
A11/11
NCAA
Drexel
#242
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-25
31-33
37-31
33-28
27-34
40-40
26-35
30-32
29-32
29-28
26-34
30-49
25-27
49-45
29-27
33-41
28-23
37-48
30-33
34-33
131.1Avg total
63.3Scored
67.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)64.272.0136.2-7.820%
Season at home (2)63.067.0130.0-4.00%
Season away (3)65.075.3140.3-10.333%
Last 10 (10)63.367.8131.1-4.530%
Last 5 (5)64.272.0136.2-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)63.371.2134.5-7.929%
vs Similar (12)61.065.8126.8-4.825%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (UMass) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
41.7%
Under 146
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
29.9%
Under 151
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
20.0%
Under 156
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

UMass total 80.5
Over 80.5
51.6%
Under 80.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass total 84.5
Over 84.5
35.7%
Under 84.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass total 88.5
Over 88.5
22.0%
Under 88.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maine Black Bears total 62
Over 62
49.1%
Under 62
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maine Black Bears total 66
Over 66
33.1%
Under 66
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maine Black Bears total 70
Over 70
19.9%
Under 70
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UMass -3
UMAS -3
92.6%
MAIN +3
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
No market prices yet.
MAIN
No market prices yet.
Spread UMass 0
UMAS 0
94.8%
MAIN 0
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
No market prices yet.
MAIN
No market prices yet.
Spread UMass +3
UMAS +3
96.6%
MAIN -3
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
No market prices yet.
MAIN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -2.8-2.82nd half: -3.1-3.1
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -2.8-2.82nd half: -3.1-3.1
UMassMaine Black Bears
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMassLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
34-21
34
21
+13
A25/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A12/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
38-28
38
28
+10
A03/11
NCAA
Boston College
#50
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A06/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H12/11
NCAA
69.5Avg total
35.3Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.534.370.8+2.157%-
Last 30 at home (13)35.132.767.8+2.454%-
Last 30 away (17)37.535.673.1+1.959%-
Last 10 (10)35.334.269.5+1.140%-
Last 5 (5)35.036.871.8-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.537.975.4-0.425%-
vs Similar (10)35.434.670.0+0.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)36.332.769.0+3.582%-
This opponent (Maine Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Maine Black BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
30-25
30
25
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A26/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H03/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Providence
#112
L
26-34
26
34
-8
A03/11
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#188
L
25-27
25
27
-2
A06/11
NCAA
Manhattan
#320
W
29-27
29
27
+2
H08/11
NCAA
Rhode Island
#40
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A11/11
NCAA
Drexel
#242
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H14/11
NCAA
58.8Avg total
28.7Scored
30.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.732.461.1-3.833%-
Last 30 at home (13)29.032.561.5-3.538%-
Last 30 away (17)28.432.460.8-3.929%-
Last 10 (10)28.730.158.8-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)27.628.856.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)27.633.160.8-5.524%-
vs Similar (12)28.031.559.5-3.542%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (UMass) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
UMass wins
0
Maine Black Bears wins
DateGameScore
21/12/19UMass v Maine Black Bears74-53
UMasslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HUMass Lowell72-62
06/11/26ABoston College55-71
03/11/26ATroy71-60
13/03/26AToledo67-77
12/03/26AMiami (Ohio)87-83
04/03/26HOhio94-82
28/02/26ABowling Green62-81
25/02/26ABall State73-74 OT
21/02/26HBuffalo82-86 OT
18/02/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HDrexel64-66
11/11/26ARhode Island65-71
08/11/26HManhattan62-68
06/11/26ASacred Heart74-72
03/11/26AProvidence56-83
07/03/26ANJIT58-60
03/03/26HUMass Lowell56-67
28/02/26ABinghamton67-74
26/02/26AAlbany Great Danes70-59
21/02/26ANew Hampshire Wildcats61-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMass
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game66.072.063.0
Allowed / game64.362.065.5
Point differential+1.7+10.0-2.5
Avg total130.3134.0128.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Maine Black Bears
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL20%
HomeLL0%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%0%33%
Points / game64.263.065.0
Allowed / game72.067.075.3
Point differential-7.8-4.0-10.3
Avg total136.2130.0140.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron330100%84.062.7+21.3
2 Central Michigan440100%83.865.8+18.0
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Miami (Ohio)330100%84.076.0+8.0
5 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
6 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
7 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
8 Ohio32167%76.075.7+0.3
9 Northern Illinois53260%79.473.2+6.2
10 Toledo52340%73.077.2-4.2
11 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Ball State41325%68.872.5-3.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass Lowell43175%79.262.8+16.5
2 Binghamton53260%67.667.4+0.2
3 Vermont42250%78.565.2+13.2
4 UMBC Retrievers52340%70.473.8-3.4
5 Maine Black Bears51420%64.272.0-7.8
6 Bryant University51420%60.271.8-11.6
7 NJIT61517%55.777.3-21.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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