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UMass vs UMass Lowell Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 81-71
Projected total 151.5
Final 72-62
31-37 41-25
Position#192
Record1-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game63.0
Allowed / game65.5
UMass 🏆
USA
Vs
82%
18%
■ UMAS 82%■ UMAS 18%
Pythia win probability
UMass Lowell
USA
Position#109
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game59.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · UMass v UMass Lowell
11 Nov 2026
UMAS72
UMAS62
06 Dec 2025
UMAS80
UMAS60
07 Dec 2024
UMAS83
UMAS96
09 Dec 2023
UMAS91
UMAS77
08 Dec 2022
UMAS80
UMAS85
24 Nov 2021
UMAS92
UMAS81
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UMass hosts UMass Lowell on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UMass the favourite with an 82% chance of victory, a reflection of their 1-1 record and 63.0 points scored per game balanced against 65.5 allowed, versus Lowell's undefeated 3-0 record and 85.0 points scored per game with only 59.7 allowed. UMass has won three of its last five games, while Lowell has won four of five, and the two teams have met five times before, with UMass holding a 3-2 edge and last beating Lowell 80-60 on 6 December 2025. The model projects an 81-71 score for UMass, 151.5 total points, and a 46% chance the home team covers the -11.5 line; the over on the 147.5 total has a 59% probability. With a 3% chance of overtime, the game is expected to stay within regulation. UMass's recent loss to Boston College 55-71 and Lowell's dominant 121-57 win over Rivier illustrate the contrasting styles that will shape this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMass winWon
82.3%fair 1.21
Best odds1.18
Implied82.9%
Edge-0.6pp
UMass Lowell winLost
17.7%fair 5.66
Best odds5.63
Implied17.1%
Edge+0.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMassUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
92-99
92
99
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
82-86 OT
82
86
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
73-74 OT
73
74
-1
A25/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A28/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
94-82
94
82
+12
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
87-83
87
83
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
67-77
67
77
-10
A13/03
NCAA
Troy
#295
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A03/11
NCAA
Boston College
#47
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-44
49-55
36-41
41-45
34-29
34-39
34-21
27-40
37-28
25-53
37-39
57-43
37-39
50-44
34-43
33-34
38-28
33-32
35-37
20-34
155.9Avg total
76.0Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)63.065.5128.5-2.550%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)63.065.5128.5-2.550%
Last 10 (10)76.079.9155.9-3.930%
Last 5 (5)74.874.6149.4+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)79.686.7166.3-7.114%
vs Similar (11)80.480.7161.1-0.445%
vs Weaker (11)76.772.0148.7+4.773%
This opponent (UMass Lowell) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMass LowellUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
78-56
78
56
+22
H19/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
92-79
92
79
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Vermont
#85
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A27/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
60-84
60
84
-24
H28/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
W
67-56
67
56
+11
A03/03
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H07/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
69-91
69
91
-22
A10/03
NCAA
Rivier
#514
W
121-57
121
57
+64
H03/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#178
W
71-61
71
61
+10
A06/11
NCAA
Marist
#273
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-28
36-28
43-35
49-44
30-34
34-32
33-37
27-47
35-26
32-30
35-42
46-34
29-43
40-48
60-29
61-28
38-26
33-35
30-29
33-32
145.3Avg total
76.6Scored
68.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.059.7144.7+25.3100%
Season at home (2)92.059.0151.0+33.0100%
Season away (1)71.061.0132.0+10.0100%
Last 10 (10)76.668.7145.3+7.970%
Last 5 (5)81.069.2150.2+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)63.880.2144.0-16.50%
vs Similar (9)77.372.2149.6+5.167%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)74.268.8143.0+5.480%
This opponent (UMass) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145Actual: Under 145
Over 145
65.5%
@ 1.75+11.2pp
Under 145
34.5%
@ 2.07-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Be
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
1.97
Marathon Be
1.90
Over/Under 150 · main lineActual: Under 150
Over 150
53.3%
@ 1.93+3.6pp
Under 150
46.7%
@ 1.90-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.79
SBO
1.78
Over/Under 155Actual: Under 155
Over 155
40.9%
Under 155
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

UMass total 75Actual: UMass under 75
Over 75
73.6%
Under 75
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass total 79 · main lineActual: UMass under 79
Over 79
58.5%
@ 1.85+8.5pp
Under 79
41.5%
@ 1.87-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
UMass total 83Actual: UMass under 83
Over 83
41.9%
Under 83
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass Lowell total 64Actual: UMass Lowell under 64
Over 64
74.3%
Under 64
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass Lowell total 68 · main lineActual: UMass Lowell under 68
Over 68
59.5%
@ 1.88+9.9pp
Under 68
40.5%
@ 1.85-9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
UMass Lowell total 72Actual: UMass Lowell under 72
Over 72
43.3%
Under 72
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UMass -13.5Actual: UMass Lowell +13.5
UMAS -13.5
39.4%
@ 2.25-1.7pp
UMAS +13.5
60.6%
@ 1.57+1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
Betano
2.25
UMAS
Betano
1.57
Spread UMass -10.5 · main lineActual: UMass Lowell +10.5
UMAS -10.5
50.1%
@ 1.89-0.5pp
UMAS +10.5
49.9%
@ 1.95+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
UMAS
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.85
Spread UMass -7.5Actual: UMass -7.5
UMAS -7.5
61.0%
@ 1.52+0.3pp
UMAS +7.5
39.0%
@ 2.35-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
Betano
1.52
UMAS
Betano
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +4.6+4.62nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: +3.3+3.3
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +4.6+4.62nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: +3.3+3.3
UMassUMass Lowell
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMassLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
34-21
34
21
+13
A25/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A12/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Troy
#295
W
38-28
38
28
+10
A03/11
NCAA
Boston College
#47
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A06/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
36.5Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)36.334.270.5+2.157%47%
Last 30 at home (13)34.632.467.0+2.254%31%
Last 30 away (17)37.535.673.1+1.959%59%
Last 10 (10)36.534.971.4+1.640%60%
Last 5 (5)36.237.273.4-1.020%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)38.438.076.4+0.429%71%
vs Similar (11)34.534.568.9+0.045%36%
vs Weaker (11)36.332.769.0+3.582%45%
This opponent (UMass Lowell) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMass LowellLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H19/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Vermont
#85
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A27/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H28/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A03/03
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H07/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Rivier
#514
W
60-29
60
29
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#178
W
38-26
38
26
+12
A06/11
NCAA
Marist
#273
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H08/11
NCAA
70.4Avg total
37.5Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)36.135.071.1+1.153%60%
Last 30 at home (14)39.333.172.4+6.164%64%
Last 30 away (16)33.336.669.9-3.244%56%
Last 10 (10)37.532.970.4+4.660%60%
Last 5 (5)38.433.872.2+4.660%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.040.172.1-8.112%75%
vs Similar (9)35.936.272.1-0.344%67%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)34.232.666.8+1.680%40%
This opponent (UMass) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: UMass Lowell win
UMAS win
no forecast
@ 1.25
UMAS win
no forecast
@ 3.95
1st half Spread UMass -5.5 · main lineActual: UMass Lowell +5.5
UMAS -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
UMAS +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Over/Under 69.5 · main lineActual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
UMass 1st half total 38 · main lineActual: UMass under 38
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
UMass Lowell 1st half total 32.5 · main lineActual: UMass Lowell over 32.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 71Actual: Under 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Spread UMass -6.5Actual: UMass Lowell +6.5
UMAS -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
UMAS +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread UMass -4.5Actual: UMass Lowell +4.5
UMAS -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
UMAS +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread UMass -7.5Actual: UMass Lowell +7.5
UMAS -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
UMAS +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread UMass -3.5Actual: UMass Lowell +3.5
UMAS -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
UMAS +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Spread UMass -8.5Actual: UMass Lowell +8.5
UMAS -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
UMAS +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread UMass -2.5Actual: UMass Lowell +2.5
UMAS -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
UMAS +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UMass (regulation)
UMAS
no forecast
@ 1.30
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
UMAS
no forecast
@ 3.95

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UMAS win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
UMAS win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UMAS leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 140.574.7%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+9.9ppLost
Over 139.576.7%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+9.7ppLost
UMass Lowell over 62.578.2%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+8.9ppLost
UMass over 73.577.5%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+7.8ppLost
UMass Lowell over 63.575.1%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+6.4ppLost
Over 141.572.7%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+6.3ppLost
UMass over 74.574.4%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+5.4ppLost
Overtime: no96.6%1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02		---+4.4pp-
UMass Lowell over 64.571.8%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+3.9ppLost
UMass (regulation)80.3%1.17
Marathon Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.17		--+3.5ppWon
UMass over 75.571.1%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+3.5ppLost
Over 142.570.6%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+3.3ppLost
UMass Lowell +18.576.1%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+3.3ppWon
UMass Lowell +17.573.3%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+2.5ppWon
UMass Lowell +16.570.4%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+2.1ppWon
UMass -3.574.6%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+1.2ppWon
UMass -4.571.4%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+1.1ppWon
UMass win82.3%1.15
Marathon Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
1xBet
1.14		-0.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
UMass wins
2
UMass Lowell wins
DateGameScore
06/12/25UMass v UMass Lowell80-60
07/12/24UMass v UMass Lowell83-96
09/12/23UMass v UMass Lowell91-77
09/12/22UMass v UMass Lowell80-85
25/11/21UMass v UMass Lowell92-81
UMasslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26ABoston College55-71
03/11/26ATroy71-60
13/03/26AToledo67-77
12/03/26AMiami (Ohio)87-83
04/03/26HOhio94-82
28/02/26ABowling Green62-81
25/02/26ABall State73-74 OT
21/02/26HBuffalo82-86 OT
18/02/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
14/02/26AAkron92-99
UMass Lowelllast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HMarist63-61
06/11/26AMerrimack Warriors71-61
03/11/26HRivier121-57
10/03/26AUMBC Retrievers69-91
07/03/26HAlbany Great Danes81-76
03/03/26AMaine Black Bears67-56
28/02/26HUMBC Retrievers60-84
27/02/26AVermont64-66
21/02/26HBinghamton92-79
19/02/26HNew Hampshire Wildcats78-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMass
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
Home--
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %50%-50%
Points / game63.0-63.0
Allowed / game65.5-65.5
Point differential-2.5--2.5
Avg total128.5-128.5
Over 1500%-0%
Win by 10+50%-50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
UMass Lowell
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game85.092.071.0
Allowed / game59.759.061.0
Point differential+25.3+33.0+10.0
Avg total144.7151.0132.0
Over 15033%50%0%
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron220100%93.562.5+31.0
2 Central Michigan330100%89.068.7+20.3
3 Bowling Green220100%85.576.0+9.5
4 Ohio220100%83.073.5+9.5
5 Miami (Ohio)220100%83.075.0+8.0
6 Western Michigan32167%78.361.3+17.0
7 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
8 Kent State21150%88.567.5+21.0
9 UMass21150%63.065.5-2.5
10 Ball State31233%70.066.7+3.3
11 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
12 Northern Illinois31233%81.086.3-5.3
13 Toledo41325%70.078.5-8.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass Lowell330100%85.059.7+25.3
2 Binghamton32167%64.368.0-3.7
3 Vermont31233%70.067.3+2.7
4 UMBC Retrievers31233%75.077.0-2.0
5 Bryant University41325%62.571.8-9.2
6 Maine Black Bears41325%64.273.5-9.2
7 NJIT41325%56.278.5-22.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UMass314172
UMass Lowell372562
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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