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UMass vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 82-86 (OT)
34-29 34-39 14-18
Position#189
Record15-12
FormWWLLL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game77.0
vs
Buffalo 🏆
USA
Position#180
Record15-11
FormLLLWL
Points / game78.3
Allowed / game74.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMass winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Buffalo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMassUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Michigan
#325
W
85-82
85
82
+3
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
68-70
68
70
-2
A17/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
84-82
84
82
+2
H20/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
84-86
84
86
-2
A28/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
70-67
70
67
+3
H31/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
95-89
95
89
+6
H04/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
91-94 OT
91
94
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
92-99
92
99
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H18/02
NCAA
1H
2H
36-35
49-47
33-40
35-30
35-34
49-48
38-29
30-38
47-43
37-43
38-30
32-37
40-47
55-42
32-21
32-43
43-44
49-55
36-41
41-45
163.6Avg total
81.4Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)80.977.0157.9+3.956%
Season at home (15)81.474.1155.5+7.367%
Season away (12)80.280.6160.8-0.442%
Last 10 (10)81.482.2163.6-0.850%
Last 5 (5)85.087.0172.0-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)79.386.5165.8-7.20%
vs Similar ◀ (14)79.377.6156.9+1.650%
vs Weaker (9)77.873.1150.9+4.778%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kent State
#52
L
81-87
81
87
-6
H13/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
102-105 OT
102
105
-3
A17/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
63-82
63
82
-19
H20/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
89-78
89
78
+11
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
83-95
83
95
-12
H31/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H03/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
69-81
69
81
-12
A07/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
63-53
63
53
+10
A12/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
70-72
70
72
-2
H17/02
NCAA
1H
2H
30-44
51-43
48-46
40-42
27-43
36-39
29-38
38-30
39-32
50-46
31-46
52-49
35-38
36-35
24-40
45-41
30-27
33-26
35-29
35-43
155.2Avg total
75.8Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)78.374.7153.0+3.658%
Season at home (14)78.676.3154.9+2.450%
Season away (12)77.972.9150.8+5.067%
Last 10 (10)75.879.4155.2-3.620%
Last 5 (5)71.274.8146.0-3.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)78.181.8159.9-3.733%
vs Similar ◀ (12)77.176.8153.9+0.250%
vs Weaker (8)76.467.6144.0+8.875%
This opponent (UMass) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +1.4+1.41st half: -5.5-5.52nd half2nd half: -1.9-1.92nd half: +2.2+2.2
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +1.4+1.41st half: -5.5-5.52nd half2nd half: -1.9-1.92nd half: +2.2+2.2
UMassBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMassLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Michigan
#325
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A17/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H20/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A28/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H04/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
32-21
32
21
+11
A07/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H18/02
NCAA
74.2Avg total
37.8Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.534.671.1+1.957%-
Last 30 at home (17)35.533.168.6+2.553%-
Last 30 away (13)37.736.674.3+1.162%-
Last 10 (10)37.836.474.2+1.460%-
Last 5 (5)37.836.674.4+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)36.739.075.7-2.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)36.133.769.9+2.450%-
vs Weaker (9)36.334.670.9+1.878%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kent State
#52
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H13/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A17/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H20/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H31/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H03/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
24-40
24
40
-16
A07/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
30-27
30
27
+3
A12/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H17/02
NCAA
71.1Avg total
32.8Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.735.572.2+1.353%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.436.772.1-1.231%-
Last 30 away (14)38.234.172.3+4.179%-
Last 10 (10)32.838.371.1-5.540%-
Last 5 (5)31.036.067.0-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)35.240.275.4-5.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.035.869.8-1.842%-
vs Weaker (8)40.829.570.2+11.288%-
This opponent (UMass) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
UMass wins
0
Buffalo wins
DateGameScore
24/01/26Buffalo v UMass67-68
UMasslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/02/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
14/02/26AAkron92-99
07/02/26ACoastal Carolina91-94 OT
04/02/26HCentral Michigan95-89
31/01/26HEastern Michigan70-67
28/01/26AMiami (Ohio)84-86
24/01/26ABuffalo68-67
20/01/26HToledo84-82
17/01/26ANorthern Illinois68-70
14/01/26AWestern Michigan85-82
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/26HNorthern Illinois70-72
12/02/26ABall State63-53
07/02/26ASouth Alabama69-81
03/02/26HMiami (Ohio)71-73
31/01/26HOhio83-95
28/01/26ABowling Green89-78
24/01/26HUMass67-68
20/01/26HAkron63-82
17/01/26AMiami (Ohio)102-105 OT
13/01/26HKent State81-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMass
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL56%
HomeWWWWL67%
AwayLWLLL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %56%67%42%
Points / game80.981.480.2
Allowed / game77.074.180.6
Point differential+3.9+7.3-0.4
Avg total157.9155.5160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%27%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (12)50% (4)38% (8)
Overtime %7%7%8%
Buffalo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL58%
HomeLLLLL50%
AwayLLWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %58%50%67%
Points / game78.378.677.9
Allowed / game74.776.372.9
Point differential+3.6+2.4+5.0
Avg total153.0154.9150.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%21%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)25% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)27270100%92.374.5+17.8
2 Akron2722581%89.474.5+15.0
3 Kent State2719870%85.479.9+5.5
4 Buffalo26151158%78.374.7+3.6
5 Bowling Green28161257%81.871.2+10.5
6 UMass27151256%80.977.0+3.9
7 Ohio28151354%77.176.6+0.5
8 Toledo27141352%81.377.5+3.8
9 Eastern Michigan28101836%71.173.4-2.3
10 Northern Illinois2691735%70.976.2-5.3
11 Central Michigan2791833%73.676.6-3.1
12 Western Michigan2791833%74.679.9-5.3
13 Ball State2781930%66.070.3-4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
UMass34341482
Buffalo29391886
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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