UMBC Retrievers vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 09 Dec 2025

Tip-off: 22:00

Final 79-83

43-39 36-44

Position#43

Record6-3

FormLWWLW

Points / game75.1

Allowed / game70.3

UMBC Retrievers

Buffalo 🏆

Position#180

Record8-1

FormWWWWL

Points / game77.7

Allowed / game70.3

NCAA

Other2025-26

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMBC Retrievers winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Buffalo winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMBC Retrievers USA

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Bryant University

#81

74-85

-11

A08/03

NCAA

Penn State-York

#423

74-53

+21

H04/11

NCAA

Dayton

#65

71-77

-6

A08/11

NCAA

Morgan State

#244

81-79

A11/11

NCAA

Wagner

#249

71-70 OT

H16/11

NCAA

George Washington

#160

52-89

-37

A20/11

NCAA

Notre Dame MD

#558

102-52

102

+50

H24/11

NCAA

Delaware State

#353

71-57

+14

H29/11

NCAA

Georgetown

#225

81-90

-9

A04/12

NCAA

Bucknell

#339

73-66

A06/12

NCAA

31-41

43-44

39-25

35-28

37-41

34-36

45-34

36-45

28-32

32-28

17-47

35-42

48-29

54-23

34-22

37-35

37-45

44-45

25-26

48-40

146.8Avg total

75.0Scored

71.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	75.1	70.3	145.4	+4.8	67%
Season at home (4)	79.5	58.0	137.5	+21.5	100%
Season away (5)	71.6	80.2	151.8	-8.6	40%
Last 10 (10)	75.0	71.8	146.8	+3.2	60%
Last 5 (5)	75.8	70.8	146.6	+5.0	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	77.0	87.8	164.8	-10.8	0%
vs Similar (12)	74.4	81.7	156.1	-7.2	33%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	82.4	71.8	154.2	+10.7	67%

This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Buffalo

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Akron

#21

70-88

-18

A08/03

NCAA

Southern Miss

#174

85-79

H03/11

NCAA

Wisc. Green Bay

#171

83-76

H07/11

NCAA

DePaul

#213

66-53

+13

A12/11

NCAA

RIT Tigers

#399

80-64

+16

H15/11

NCAA

Vermont

#85

94-90

H18/11

NCAA

VMI

#364

78-70

H24/11

NCAA

Bucknell

#339

73-71

A26/11

NCAA

Canisius

#327

71-53

+18

A29/11

NCAA

St. Bonaventure

#207

69-77

-8

H06/12

NCAA

24-47

46-41

36-38

49-41

32-28

51-48

36-18

30-35

50-28

30-36

40-43

54-47

31-33

47-37

45-32

28-39

34-29

37-24

32-38

37-39

149.0Avg total

76.9Scored

72.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	77.7	70.3	148.0	+7.3	89%
Season at home (6)	81.5	76.0	157.5	+5.5	83%
Season away (3)	70.0	59.0	129.0	+11.0	100%
Last 10 (10)	76.9	72.1	149.0	+4.8	80%
Last 5 (5)	77.0	72.2	149.2	+4.8	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	69.6	83.0	152.6	-13.4	15%
vs Similar (6)	78.3	73.7	152.0	+4.7	83%
vs Weaker (4)	75.5	64.5	140.0	+11.0	100%

This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

UMBC RetrieversBuffalo

Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by half · pick a half

UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Bryant University

#81

31-41

-10

A08/03

NCAA

Penn State-York

#423

39-25

+14

H04/11

NCAA

Dayton

#65

37-41

-4

A08/11

NCAA

Morgan State

#244

45-34

+11

A11/11

NCAA

Wagner

#249

28-32

-4

H16/11

NCAA

George Washington

#160

17-47

-30

A20/11

NCAA

Notre Dame MD

#558

48-29

+19

H24/11

NCAA

Delaware State

#353

34-22

+12

H29/11

NCAA

Georgetown

#225

37-45

-8

A04/12

NCAA

Bucknell

#339

25-26

-1

A06/12

NCAA

68.3Avg total

34.1Scored

34.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	36.3	38.3	74.6	-2.1	33%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	37.8	36.3	74.2	+1.5	46%	-
Last 30 away (17)	35.1	39.9	74.9	-4.8	24%	-
Last 10 (10)	34.1	34.2	68.3	-0.1	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	32.2	33.8	66.0	-1.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	38.0	45.6	83.6	-7.6	0%	-
vs Similar (12)	33.0	39.8	72.8	-6.8	25%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	38.6	35.0	73.6	+3.6	50%	-

This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Akron

#21

24-47

-23

A08/03

NCAA

Southern Miss

#174

36-38

-2

H03/11

NCAA

Wisc. Green Bay

#171

32-28

H07/11

NCAA

DePaul

#213

36-18

+18

A12/11

NCAA

RIT Tigers

#399

50-28

+22

H15/11

NCAA

Vermont

#85

40-43

-3

H18/11

NCAA

VMI

#364

31-33

-2

H24/11

NCAA

Bucknell

#339

45-32

+13

A26/11

NCAA

Canisius

#327

34-29

A29/11

NCAA

St. Bonaventure

#207

32-38

-6

H06/12

NCAA

69.4Avg total

36.0Scored

33.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	32.9	36.8	69.6	-3.9	30%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	31.0	36.6	67.6	-5.6	12%	-
Last 30 away (14)	35.0	37.0	72.0	-2.0	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.0	33.4	69.4	+2.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	36.4	35.0	71.4	+1.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	30.9	39.8	70.7	-8.9	15%	-
vs Similar (6)	34.7	31.0	65.7	+3.7	50%	-
vs Weaker (4)	40.0	30.5	70.5	+9.5	75%	-

This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.3	38.2	78.5	+2.1	47%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	40.6	36.4	77.0	+4.2	62%	-
Last 30 away (17)	40.1	39.5	79.6	+0.5	35%	-
Last 10 (10)	39.8	36.6	76.4	+3.2	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.6	37.0	80.6	+6.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	39.0	42.2	81.2	-3.2	40%	-
vs Similar (12)	38.7	39.6	78.2	-0.9	33%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	42.9	35.9	78.8	+7.0	58%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.3	41.9	81.1	-2.6	33%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	42.8	42.1	84.8	+0.7	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	35.3	41.6	76.9	-6.4	14%	-
Last 10 (10)	40.9	38.7	79.6	+2.2	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	40.6	37.2	77.8	+3.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)	38.7	43.2	81.9	-4.5	25%	-
vs Similar (6)	43.7	42.7	86.3	+1.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (4)	35.5	34.0	69.5	+1.5	50%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

UMBC Retrievers wins

Buffalo wins

No previous meetings.

UMBC Retrieverslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
06/12/25	A	Bucknell	73-66
04/12/25	A	Georgetown	81-90
29/11/25	H	Delaware State	71-57
24/11/25	H	Notre Dame MD	102-52
20/11/25	A	George Washington	52-89
16/11/25	H	Wagner	71-70 OT
11/11/25	A	Morgan State	81-79
08/11/25	A	Dayton	71-77
04/11/25	H	Penn State-York	74-53
08/03/25	A	Bryant University	74-85

Buffalolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
06/12/25	H	St. Bonaventure	69-77
29/11/25	A	Canisius	71-53
26/11/25	A	Bucknell	73-71
24/11/25	H	VMI	78-70
18/11/25	H	Vermont	94-90
15/11/25	H	RIT Tigers	80-64
12/11/25	A	DePaul	66-53
07/11/25	H	Wisc. Green Bay	83-76
03/11/25	H	Southern Miss	85-79
08/03/25	A	Akron	70-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMBC Retrievers

NCAA 2025-26

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWLW	67%
Home	WWWW	100%
Away	LWLLW	40%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	4	5
Win %	67%	100%	40%
Points / game	75.1	79.5	71.6
Allowed / game	70.3	58.0	80.2
Point differential	+4.8	+21.5	-8.6
Avg total	145.4	137.5	151.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	33%	75%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	11%	25%	0%

Buffalo

NCAA 2025-26

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWL	89%
Home	WWWWL	83%
Away	WWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	6	3
Win %	89%	83%	100%
Points / game	77.7	81.5	70.0
Allowed / game	70.3	76.0	59.0
Point differential	+7.3	+5.5	+11.0
Avg total	148.0	157.5	129.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	33%	17%	67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

America East conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	UMBC Retrievers	9	6	3	67%	75.1	70.3	+4.8
2	Vermont	11	6	5	55%	78.7	75.3	+3.5
3	UMass Lowell	10	3	7	30%	73.6	79.9	-6.3
4	Binghamton	10	3	7	30%	65.4	72.6	-7.2
5	Bryant University	10	3	7	30%	62.6	70.6	-8.0
6	NJIT	10	3	7	30%	63.8	80.1	-16.3
7	Maine Black Bears	11	0	11	0%	59.0	71.4	-12.4

Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

Mid-American conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Miami (Ohio)	8	8	0	100%	95.4	66.8	+28.6
2	Buffalo	9	8	1	89%	77.7	70.3	+7.3
3	Akron	10	8	2	80%	95.4	74.8	+20.6
4	Kent State	10	8	2	80%	97.8	81.6	+16.2
5	Bowling Green	10	7	3	70%	88.3	65.8	+22.5
6	UMass	9	6	3	67%	78.2	71.2	+7.0
7	Eastern Michigan	10	6	4	60%	72.6	70.0	+2.6
8	Toledo	9	5	4	56%	84.0	77.9	+6.1
9	Western Michigan	10	5	5	50%	76.7	78.3	-1.6
10	Ball State	9	3	6	33%	65.1	69.6	-4.4
11	Central Michigan	9	3	6	33%	74.2	78.7	-4.4
12	Northern Illinois	9	3	6	33%	73.4	79.8	-6.3
13	Ohio	9	3	6	33%	73.9	81.0	-7.1