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Morgan State vs UMBC Retrievers Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 11 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 79-81
34-45 45-36
Position#244
Record1-1
FormLWLLW
Points / game85.5
Allowed / game82.0
vs
Position#43
Record1-1
FormLLLWL
Points / game72.5
Allowed / game65.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Morgan State v UMBC Retrievers
11 Nov 2025
MORG79
UMBC81
06 Dec 2023
MORG92
UMBC80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Morgan State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
UMBC Retrievers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Morgan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#262
W
92-78
92
78
+14
A18/02
NCAA
Howard
#302
L
81-87
81
87
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#64
L
60-69
60
69
-9
A25/02
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#355
W
75-72
75
72
+3
A01/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#170
W
87-81
87
81
+6
H04/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#351
L
75-82 OT
75
82
-7
A07/03
NCAA
Howard
#302
W
91-90
91
90
+1
A13/03
NCAA
Norfolk State
#64
L
55-58
55
58
-3
A14/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A03/11
NCAA
Central Penn
#576
W
101-77
101
77
+24
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-40
49-38
35-38
46-49
26-30
34-39
30-36
45-36
36-27
51-54
32-23
37-46
41-44
50-46
28-25
27-33
34-42
36-45
52-40
49-37
156.8Avg total
78.7Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)85.582.0167.5+3.550%
Season at home (1)101.077.0178.0+24.0100%
Season away (1)70.087.0157.0-17.00%
Last 10 (10)78.778.1156.8+0.650%
Last 5 (5)78.478.8157.2-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)68.682.4151.0-13.820%
vs Similar (10)83.590.0173.5-6.540%
vs Weaker (10)89.172.2161.3+16.970%
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maine Black Bears
#135
L
50-73
50
73
-23
A08/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#227
W
81-77
81
77
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A15/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#171
L
79-98
79
98
-19
A20/02
NCAA
NJIT
#353
W
95-91
95
91
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#197
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H27/02
NCAA
Vermont
#97
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H01/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
74-85
74
85
-11
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State-York
#423
W
74-53
74
53
+21
H04/11
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
17-27
33-46
31-27
50-50
39-42
40-39
44-52
35-46
46-42
49-49
36-43
38-35
39-41
30-38
31-41
43-44
39-25
35-28
37-41
34-36
153.8Avg total
74.6Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)72.565.0137.5+7.550%
Season at home (1)74.053.0127.0+21.0100%
Season away (1)71.077.0148.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)74.679.2153.8-4.630%
Last 5 (5)72.474.4146.8-2.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.087.8164.8-10.80%
vs Similar (18)76.378.7155.0-2.339%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)85.074.5159.5+10.550%
This opponent (Morgan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +1.2+1.21st half: -2.2-2.22nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: -2.4-2.4
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +1.2+1.21st half: -2.2-2.22nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: -2.4-2.4
Morgan StateUMBC Retrievers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Morgan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#262
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A18/02
NCAA
Howard
#302
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#64
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#355
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A01/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#170
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H04/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#351
W
32-23
32
23
+9
A07/03
NCAA
Howard
#302
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Norfolk State
#64
W
28-25
28
25
+3
A14/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A03/11
NCAA
Central Penn
#576
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H06/11
NCAA
70.2Avg total
35.7Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.238.674.8-2.337%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.034.474.4+5.654%-
Last 30 away (17)33.441.875.1-8.424%-
Last 10 (10)35.734.570.2+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)37.434.872.2+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)31.739.170.8-7.430%-
vs Similar (10)35.843.579.3-7.710%-
vs Weaker (10)41.233.174.3+8.170%-
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maine Black Bears
#135
L
17-27
17
27
-10
A08/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#227
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A15/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#171
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A20/02
NCAA
NJIT
#353
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#197
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H27/02
NCAA
Vermont
#97
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State-York
#423
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H04/11
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A08/11
NCAA
74.0Avg total
35.9Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.738.675.3-1.833%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.137.774.9-0.640%-
Last 30 away (15)36.339.475.7-3.127%-
Last 10 (10)35.938.174.0-2.230%-
Last 5 (5)36.438.274.6-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.045.683.6-7.60%-
vs Similar (18)34.837.372.2-2.533%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)41.038.779.7+2.350%-
This opponent (Morgan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Morgan State wins
2
UMBC Retrievers wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/25HCentral Penn101-77
03/11/25AGeorgetown70-87
14/03/25ANorfolk State55-58
13/03/25AHoward91-90
07/03/25ACoppin State75-82 OT
04/03/25HDelaware State87-81
01/03/25AMd.-East. Shore75-72
25/02/25ANorfolk State60-69
22/02/25HHoward81-87
18/02/25AN. Carolina Central92-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/25ADayton71-77
04/11/25HPenn State-York74-53
08/03/25ABryant University74-85
01/03/25HVermont69-79
27/02/25HAlbany Great Danes74-78
22/02/25HNJIT95-91
20/02/25AUMass Lowell79-98
15/02/25ABryant University79-81
13/02/25HBinghamton81-77
08/02/25AMaine Black Bears50-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Morgan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game85.5101.070.0
Allowed / game82.077.087.0
Point differential+3.5+24.0-17.0
Avg total167.5178.0157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
UMBC Retrievers
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game72.574.071.0
Allowed / game65.053.077.0
Point differential+7.5+21.0-6.0
Avg total137.5127.0148.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-Eastern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Norfolk State32167%98.370.7+27.7
2 Morgan State21150%85.582.0+3.5
3 Howard31233%80.077.3+2.7
4 Md.-East. Shore31233%61.769.7-8.0
5 Coppin State3030%63.384.7-21.3
6 Delaware State3030%55.078.0-23.0
7 N. Carolina Central3030%60.790.3-29.7
8 South Carolina St3030%59.790.3-30.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vermont330100%92.371.3+21.0
2 UMBC Retrievers21150%72.565.0+7.5
3 NJIT21150%62.567.5-5.0
4 UMass Lowell31233%73.779.3-5.7
5 Binghamton31233%57.369.3-12.0
6 Maine Black Bears3030%55.770.0-14.3
7 Bryant University2020%55.578.0-22.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Morgan State344579
UMBC Retrievers453681
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