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Dayton vs UMBC Retrievers Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 77-71
41-37 36-34
Position#65
Record1-0
FormWLWLW
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game48.0
Dayton 🏆
USA
vs
Position#43
Record1-0
FormWLLLW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game53.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dayton winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
UMBC Retrievers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DaytonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duquesne
#279
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#75
L
72-76
72
76
-4
A22/02
NCAA
Rhode Island
#137
W
85-77
85
77
+8
A27/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#327
W
74-64 OT
74
64
+10
H01/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#140
W
75-67
75
67
+8
H05/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#18
W
79-76
79
76
+3
A08/03
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks
#90
L
68-73 OT
68
73
-5
H14/03
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#20
W
86-79
86
79
+7
H19/03
NIT
Chattanooga Mocs
#1
L
72-87
72
87
-15
A22/03
NIT
Canisius
#327
W
88-48
88
48
+40
H04/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
40-44
0-0
37-32
0-0
31-34
0-0
41-42
0-0
33-30
0-0
52-47
0-0
24-26
0-0
24-22
0-0
28-41
0-0
47-26
0-0
28-27
0-0
51-49
0-0
24-33
0-0
36-27
0-0
44-38
0-0
42-41
0-0
34-42
0-0
38-45
0-0
51-27
0-0
37-21
149.9Avg total
77.6Scored
72.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)88.048.0136.0+40.0100%
Season at home (1)88.048.0136.0+40.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.672.3149.9+5.370%
Last 5 (5)78.672.6151.2+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)75.881.2157.0-5.525%
vs Similar (17)72.871.9144.7+0.959%
vs Weaker (8)80.066.2146.2+13.888%
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#342
L
78-79
78
79
-1
A07/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#135
L
50-73
50
73
-23
A08/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#227
W
81-77
81
77
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A15/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#171
L
79-98
79
98
-19
A20/02
NCAA
NJIT
#353
W
95-91
95
91
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#197
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H27/02
NCAA
Vermont
#97
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H01/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
74-85
74
85
-11
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State-York
#423
W
74-53
74
53
+21
H04/11
NCAA
1H
2H
45-39
33-40
17-27
33-46
31-27
50-50
39-42
40-39
44-52
35-46
46-42
49-49
36-43
38-35
39-41
30-38
31-41
43-44
39-25
35-28
154.7Avg total
75.3Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)74.053.0127.0+21.0100%
Season at home (1)74.053.0127.0+21.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.379.4154.7-4.130%
Last 5 (5)77.277.2154.4+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.087.8164.8-10.80%
vs Similar (18)76.378.7155.0-2.339%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)88.572.8161.3+15.767%
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: -1.2-1.22nd half2nd half: +5.3+5.32nd half: -2.9-2.9
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: -1.2-1.22nd half2nd half: +5.3+5.32nd half: -2.9-2.9
DaytonUMBC Retrievers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DaytonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duquesne
#279
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H15/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#75
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A22/02
NCAA
Rhode Island
#137
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A27/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#327
L
24-26
24
26
-2
H01/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#140
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H05/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#18
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks
#90
L
24-33
24
33
-9
H14/03
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#20
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H19/03
NIT
Chattanooga Mocs
#1
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A22/03
NIT
Canisius
#327
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H04/11
NCAA
67.9Avg total
33.7Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.432.767.1+1.650%-
Last 30 at home (19)33.031.664.6+1.447%-
Last 30 away (11)36.734.771.5+2.055%-
Last 10 (10)33.734.267.9-0.540%-
Last 5 (5)36.233.469.6+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)32.834.267.0-1.550%-
vs Similar (17)32.833.065.8-0.247%-
vs Weaker (8)37.230.868.0+6.550%-
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#342
W
45-39
45
39
+6
A07/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#135
L
17-27
17
27
-10
A08/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#227
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A15/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#171
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A20/02
NCAA
NJIT
#353
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#197
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H27/02
NCAA
Vermont
#97
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State-York
#423
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H04/11
NCAA
74.6Avg total
36.7Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.938.175.0-1.237%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.537.174.6+0.444%-
Last 30 away (14)36.339.375.6-3.029%-
Last 10 (10)36.737.974.6-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)38.238.476.6-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.045.683.6-7.60%-
vs Similar (18)34.837.372.2-2.533%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)42.036.378.3+5.767%-
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Dayton wins
0
UMBC Retrievers wins
No previous meetings.
Daytonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/25HCanisius88-48
22/03/25AChattanooga Mocs72-87
19/03/25HFlorida Atlantic86-79
14/03/25HSaint Josephs Hawks68-73 OT
08/03/25AVCU Rams79-76
05/03/25HSt. Louis Billikens75-67
01/03/25HRichmond Spiders74-64 OT
27/02/25ARhode Island85-77
22/02/25ALoyola Chicago72-76
15/02/25HDuquesne77-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/25HPenn State-York74-53
08/03/25ABryant University74-85
01/03/25HVermont69-79
27/02/25HAlbany Great Danes74-78
22/02/25HNJIT95-91
20/02/25AUMass Lowell79-98
15/02/25ABryant University79-81
13/02/25HBinghamton81-77
08/02/25AMaine Black Bears50-73
07/02/25ANew Hampshire Wildcats78-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dayton
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game88.088.0-
Allowed / game48.048.0-
Point differential+40.0+40.0-
Avg total136.0136.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
UMBC Retrievers
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game74.074.0-
Allowed / game53.053.0-
Point differential+21.0+21.0-
Avg total127.0127.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic 10 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Dayton110100%88.048.0+40.0
2 La Salle110100%87.059.0+28.0
3 Richmond Spiders110100%84.056.0+28.0
4 Davidson220100%91.066.0+25.0
5 St. Louis Billikens220100%100.076.5+23.5
6 Duquesne220100%87.571.5+16.0
7 George Mason220100%83.068.0+15.0
8 George Washington220100%83.071.0+12.0
9 Saint Josephs Hawks220100%80.570.5+10.0
10 St. Bonaventure110100%69.063.0+6.0
11 Fordham21150%83.554.5+29.0
12 VCU Rams21150%90.077.0+13.0
13 Rhode Island21150%79.072.0+7.0
14 Loyola Chicago21150%78.080.5-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vermont220100%94.065.0+29.0
2 UMBC Retrievers110100%74.053.0+21.0
3 NJIT110100%72.061.0+11.0
4 UMass Lowell21150%77.082.5-5.5
5 Binghamton21150%56.570.5-14.0
6 Maine Black Bears1010%47.067.0-20.0
7 Bryant University2020%55.578.0-22.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Dayton413677
UMBC Retrievers373471
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