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UMBC Retrievers vs Wagner Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 71-70 (OT)
28-32 32-28 11-10
Position#43
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game69.7
vs
Position#249
Record0-3
FormLLLLL
Points / game65.3
Allowed / game78.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMBC Retrievers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Wagner winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMBC RetrieversUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Binghamton
#227
W
81-77
81
77
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A15/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#171
L
79-98
79
98
-19
A20/02
NCAA
NJIT
#353
W
95-91
95
91
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#197
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H27/02
NCAA
Vermont
#97
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H01/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
74-85
74
85
-11
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State-York
#423
W
74-53
74
53
+21
H04/11
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-27
50-50
39-42
40-39
44-52
35-46
46-42
49-49
36-43
38-35
39-41
30-38
31-41
43-44
39-25
35-28
37-41
34-36
45-34
36-45
157.5Avg total
77.7Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)75.369.7145.0+5.767%
Season at home (1)74.053.0127.0+21.0100%
Season away (2)76.078.0154.0-2.050%
Last 10 (10)77.779.8157.5-2.140%
Last 5 (5)73.874.6148.4-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.087.8164.8-10.80%
vs Similar (17)77.279.2156.5-2.041%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)84.475.1159.6+9.357%
This opponent (Wagner) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WagnerUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairleigh Dickinson
#289
L
58-69
58
69
-11
A08/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#335
L
68-72 OT
68
72
-4
A14/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#225
W
63-57
63
57
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Chicago State
#368
W
64-52
64
52
+12
A22/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#194
L
47-60
47
60
-13
A28/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#24
L
48-55
48
55
-7
H01/03
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#236
L
55-58
55
58
-3
A06/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
74-103
74
103
-29
A04/11
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
61-68
61
68
-7
A08/11
NCAA
Fordham
#177
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
28-28
30-41
18-28
44-34
30-29
33-28
33-12
31-40
22-28
25-32
27-29
21-26
25-28
30-30
40-51
34-52
31-30
30-38
31-26
30-37
125.6Avg total
59.9Scored
65.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)65.378.0143.3-12.70%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)65.378.0143.3-12.70%
Last 10 (10)59.965.7125.6-5.820%
Last 5 (5)59.869.4129.2-9.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)61.269.2130.4-8.020%
vs Similar (14)59.066.1125.1-7.129%
vs Weaker (8)57.957.4115.2+0.562%
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: -0.4-0.42nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: -5.0-5.0
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: -0.4-0.42nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: -5.0-5.0
UMBC RetrieversWagner
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Binghamton
#227
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A15/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#171
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A20/02
NCAA
NJIT
#353
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#197
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H27/02
NCAA
Vermont
#97
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#81
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State-York
#423
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H04/11
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A08/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
W
45-34
45
34
+11
A11/11
NCAA
77.5Avg total
38.7Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.438.876.1-1.437%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.938.476.4-0.543%-
Last 30 away (16)36.939.175.9-2.231%-
Last 10 (10)38.738.877.5-0.140%-
Last 5 (5)38.236.474.6+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.045.683.6-7.60%-
vs Similar (17)35.437.973.2-2.535%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)41.638.079.6+3.657%-
This opponent (Wagner) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WagnerLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairleigh Dickinson
#289
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A08/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#335
L
18-28
18
28
-10
A14/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#225
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Chicago State
#368
W
33-12
33
12
+21
A22/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#194
L
22-28
22
28
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#24
L
27-29
27
29
-2
H01/03
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#236
L
25-28
25
28
-3
A06/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A04/11
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A08/11
NCAA
Fordham
#177
W
31-26
31
26
+5
A12/11
NCAA
57.4Avg total
28.5Scored
28.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.627.556.1+1.143%-
Last 30 at home (13)31.126.557.5+4.662%-
Last 30 away (17)26.628.354.9-1.629%-
Last 10 (10)28.528.957.4-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)30.832.863.6-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)32.233.866.0-1.640%-
vs Similar (14)26.127.954.0-1.929%-
vs Weaker (8)25.423.448.8+2.050%-
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UMBC Retrievers wins
0
Wagner wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/25AMorgan State81-79
08/11/25ADayton71-77
04/11/25HPenn State-York74-53
08/03/25ABryant University74-85
01/03/25HVermont69-79
27/02/25HAlbany Great Danes74-78
22/02/25HNJIT95-91
20/02/25AUMass Lowell79-98
15/02/25ABryant University79-81
13/02/25HBinghamton81-77
Wagnerlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/25AFordham61-63
08/11/25ASeton Hall61-68
04/11/25AVCU Rams74-103
06/03/25ASt. Francis (PA)55-58
01/03/25HCentral Connecticut State48-55
28/02/25ALIU Sharks47-60
22/02/25AChicago State64-52
21/02/25HStonehill63-57
14/02/25ALe Moyne68-72 OT
08/02/25AFairleigh Dickinson58-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMBC Retrievers
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game75.374.076.0
Allowed / game69.753.078.0
Point differential+5.7+21.0-2.0
Avg total145.0127.0154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Wagner
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
Home--
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %0%-0%
Points / game65.3-65.3
Allowed / game78.0-78.0
Point differential-12.7--12.7
Avg total143.3-143.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vermont440100%90.572.0+18.5
2 NJIT43175%71.070.0+1.0
3 UMBC Retrievers32167%75.369.7+5.7
4 Bryant University31233%64.377.0-12.7
5 UMass Lowell41325%73.281.0-7.8
6 Binghamton51420%64.876.2-11.4
7 Maine Black Bears3030%55.770.0-14.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 LIU Sharks43175%81.282.5-1.2
2 Central Connecticut State32167%75.361.7+13.7
3 Mercyhurst Lakers53260%70.861.6+9.2
4 Stonehill52340%73.267.2+6.0
5 New Haven Chargers52340%57.871.2-13.4
6 Le Moyne41325%75.875.2+0.5
7 Wagner3030%65.378.0-12.7
8 Chicago State4040%69.291.2-22.0
9 Fairleigh Dickinson4040%68.091.8-23.8
10 St. Francis (PA)3030%65.093.3-28.3
11 St. Francis (ILL)1010%55.098.0-43.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
UMBC Retrievers28321171
Wagner32281070
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