Unicaja host Basquet Girona on 15 November 2026 in the Liga ACB, and the Pythia model names Unicaja the favourite with a 76% chance of victory, driven by their 3-4 record, 88.7 points per game and 86.1 allowed, compared with Basquet Girona's 4-3 record, 90.7 points per game and 97.3 allowed. Unicaja's 1-2 home record, 85.3 points scored and 85.3 allowed, and a 3-2 run in their last five games, including a 99-94 win over Reggiana, contrast with Girona's 0-3 road record, 82.7 points scored and 113.3 allowed, and a 3-2 stretch that featured a 92-84 win over Dinamo Bucharest. In their eight prior meetings Unicaja has won seven, most recently 90-83 on 8 March 2026. Pythia projects a 93-85 score for the match, with a total of 178.8 points, and gives Unicaja a 35% chance to cover the -12.5 line while the over on 179.5 carries a 47% probability; the game has a 4% chance of overtime. The last result for Unicaja was a 91-96 loss to Basket Zaragoza away on 8 November.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Unicaja win
75.8%fair 1.32
Best odds1.10
Implied87.5%
Edge-11.7pp
Basquet Girona win
24.2%fair 4.13
Best odds8.00
Implied12.5%
Edge+11.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Unicaja) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 179 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 180.5.
Over/Under 175.5
Over 175.5
57.1%
@ 1.53-3.8pp
Under 175.5
42.9%
@ 2.40+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Marathon Be
1.53
WilliamHill
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.40
WilliamHill
2.38
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.25
Marathon Be
2.25
Over/Under 180.5 · main line
Over 180.5
45.1%
@ 1.94-4.4pp
Under 180.5
54.9%
@ 1.90+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 185.5
Over 185.5
33.6%
@ 2.50-4.8pp
Under 185.5
66.4%
@ 1.52+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
2.50
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Marathon Be
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Unicaja total 93.5
Over 93.5
49.7%
@ 1.67-10.7pp
Under 93.5
50.3%
@ 2.65+10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.35
1xBet
2.15
Unicaja total 97.5 · main line
Over 97.5
34.5%
@ 1.91-14.9pp
Under 97.5
65.5%
@ 1.93+14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Unicaja total 101.5
Over 101.5
21.6%
@ 2.62-15.4pp
Under 101.5
78.4%
@ 1.47+15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Basquet Girona total 78.5
Over 78.5
74.3%
@ 1.44+9.5pp
Under 78.5
25.7%
@ 2.80-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.42
Basquet Girona total 82.5 · main line
Over 82.5
60.2%
@ 1.90+9.2pp
Under 82.5
39.8%
@ 1.93-9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.78
Basquet Girona total 86.5
Over 86.5
44.8%
@ 2.60+3.7pp
Under 86.5
55.2%
@ 1.60-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.39
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Unicaja's side (positive = Unicaja win). Pythia's expected margin is +8.0; Unicaja win by 1+ in 68% of simulations.
Spread Unicaja -17.5
UNI -17.5
20.6%
@ 2.50-19.3pp
GIR +17.5
79.4%
@ 1.70+19.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UNI
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.31
Marathon Be
2.31
Betano
2.07
GIR
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.53
Marathon Be
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Spread Unicaja -14.5 · main line
UNI -14.5
28.6%
@ 1.95-21.0pp
GIR +14.5
71.4%
@ 2.05+21.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UNI
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Be
1.92
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
GIR
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.83
Spread Unicaja -11.5
UNI -11.5
38.1%
@ 1.89-22.4pp
GIR +11.5
61.9%
@ 2.50+22.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UNI
BetVictor
1.89
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.64
1xBet
1.57
Marathon Be
1.57
GIR
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.39
1xBet
2.22
Marathon Be
2.22
Bet365
2.12
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
UnicajaBasquet Girona
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Unicaja) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
UNI win
66.0%
@ 1.19-13.1pp
GIR win
34.0%
@ 4.50+13.1pp
2nd half Spread Unicaja -6.5 · main line
UNI -6.5
38.6%
@ 1.88-11.1pp
GIR +6.5
61.4%
@ 1.90+11.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 91.5 · main line
Over
40.4%
@ 1.88-9.5pp
Under
59.6%
@ 1.91+9.5pp
Unicaja 2nd half total 49 · main line
Over
34.4%
@ 1.90-14.8pp
Under
65.6%
@ 1.84+14.8pp
Basquet Girona 2nd half total 42.5 · main line
Over
50.6%
@ 1.93+0.6pp
Under
49.4%
@ 1.87-0.6pp
2nd half Spread Unicaja -7.5
UNI -7.5
34.4%
@ 1.96-13.3pp
GIR +7.5
65.6%
@ 1.83+13.3pp
2nd half Spread Unicaja -5.5
UNI -5.5
42.5%
@ 1.79-9.8pp
GIR +5.5
57.5%
@ 1.96+9.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 89.5
Over
47.4%
@ 1.67-8.3pp
Under
52.6%
@ 2.10+8.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 93.5
Over
33.4%
@ 2.10-10.9pp
Under
66.6%
@ 1.67+10.9pp
2nd half Spread Unicaja -8.5
UNI -8.5
30.6%
@ 1.91-18.2pp
GIR +8.5
69.4%
@ 1.82+18.2pp
2nd half Spread Unicaja -4.5
UNI -4.5
46.8%
@ 1.85-3.9pp
GIR +4.5
53.2%
@ 1.90+3.9pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
UNI
63.6%
@ 1.33-6.4pp
Draw
3.7%
@ 26.00-0.9pp
GIR
32.8%
@ 4.50+6.8pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Unicajatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Unicaja: 82.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.2
21.5
52.2%
55.8%
43.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.0
8.9
35.6%
36.4%
26.7
🏀Free throws
17.9
12.9
72.1%
76.0%
12.9
Their opponents take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Basquet Gironatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Basquet Girona: 88.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
32.8
19.0
57.9%
55.8%
38.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
31.6
11.6
36.7%
36.4%
34.8
🏀Free throws
20.5
15.6
76.1%
76.0%
15.6
Their opponents take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Unicajatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Unicaja: 84.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.1 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.0
20.0
54.2%
55.8%
40.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.5
9.3
36.6%
36.4%
28.0
🏀Free throws
21.0
15.9
75.9%
76.0%
15.9
Their opponents take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Basquet Gironatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Basquet Girona: 87.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.7 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
33.0
18.4
55.7%
55.8%
36.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
31.3
10.9
35.0%
36.4%
32.8
🏀Free throws
23.0
17.7
76.7%
76.0%
17.7
Their opponents take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Unicaja
LWLWWWWWLL
Basquet Girona
WWWLLWWWWL
#10
League position
#9
+5.9
Net rating
+1.0
101.7
Offensive rating
100.3
95.8
Defensive rating
99.3
53.0%
Effective FG%
56.6%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.5%
13.2%
Turnover %
17.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.4%
3-point %
35.5%
57.9%
Assist %
54.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%
Profile
■ Unicaja■ Basquet Girona
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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