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Union Atletica vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 75-87
Projected total 161.9
Final 74-88
16-18 24-22 17-35 17-13
Position#11
Record1-3
FormWWLLL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game80.8
Union Atletica
Uruguay
Vs
13%
87%
■ UNIO 13%■ PENA 87%
Pythia win probability
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
Position#1
Record2-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game77.5
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Union Atletica
Other2026-27
Meetings · Union Atletica v Penarol
02 Nov 2026
UNIO74
PENA88
20 Oct 2025
UNIO59
PENA90
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Union Atletica will host Penarol on 2 November 2026 in the Liga Uruguaya, with the Pythia model clearly favouring Penarol at 87% to win, a probability that reflects Penarol's perfect 2-0 record, 96.0 points per game and 77.5 allowed per game, placing them first in the league, while Union Atletica sits 11th with a 1-3 record, 78.2 points per game and 80.8 allowed per game. Union Atletica's single home game has ended in a 73-82 loss, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, with recent defeats to Goes, Atenas and Aguada. Penarol's last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by victories over Malvin, Urunday and Aguada. Historically, Penarol has won both meetings against Union Atletica, the most recent being an 88-80 win on 18 December 2025. Pythia projects a 75-87 score, a total of 161.9 points, and a 42% chance that Union Atletica will cover the 10.5-point line, with a 3% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Union Atletica winLost
13.4%fair 7.49
Best odds5.50
Implied19.8%
Edge-6.4pp
Penarol winWon
86.6%fair 1.15
Best odds1.16
Implied80.2%
Edge+6.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Union AtleticaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAtletica
Date
Competition
Cordon
#11
L
68-83
68
83
-15
55avg 73
A06/03
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
104-91
104
91
+13
96avg 73
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
94-84
94
84
+10
87avg 73
H14/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
75-89
75
89
-14
67avg 73
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
76-81
76
81
-5
63avg 73
A21/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
95-71
95
71
+24
95avg 73
H23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Larranaga
#7
W
94-78
94
78
+16
88avg 73
A21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#5
L
63-66
63
66
-3
48avg 73
A24/10
Liga Uruguaya
Atenas
#12
L
73-82
73
82
-9
56avg 73
H26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#2
L
83-97
83
97
-14
71avg 73
A30/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-23
21-21
12-20
16-19
31-16
30-24
21-29
22-22
23-17
29-22
21-24
21-21
17-27
28-26
15-17
15-19
17-22
19-14
22-17
18-28
25-16
27-25
20-17
23-13
25-22
18-15
19-26
32-15
15-22
22-20
14-14
12-10
17-28
20-25
12-19
24-10
20-24
24-31
18-21
21-21
164.7Avg total
82.5Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)78.280.8159.0-2.525%
Season at home (1)73.082.0155.0-9.00%
Season away (3)80.080.3160.3-0.333%
Last 10 (10)82.582.2164.7+0.340%
Last 5 (5)81.678.8160.4+2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)77.484.0161.4-6.629%
vs Similar (13)82.284.2166.3-2.038%
vs Weaker (10)85.678.7164.3+6.970%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Defensor
#7
W
81-61
81
61
+20
72avg 86
A23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
93-81
93
81
+12
92avg 86
H27/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
99-82
99
82
+17
94avg 86
H04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
89-84
89
84
+5
80avg 86
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
71-78
71
78
-7
61avg 86
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
81-92
81
92
-11
71avg 86
A17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
80-71
80
71
+9
71avg 86
H20/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
107-92
107
92
+15
102avg 86
A23/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#10
W
91-79
91
79
+12
68avg 86
A22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#6
W
101-76
101
76
+25
100avg 86
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-16
26-15
22-20
15-10
25-25
28-23
20-17
20-16
27-22
24-25
25-17
23-18
28-23
20-26
26-17
15-18
15-19
18-27
19-14
19-18
13-21
32-19
19-25
17-27
25-26
20-23
12-14
23-8
31-21
23-32
32-16
21-23
24-26
24-24
23-7
20-22
30-25
28-19
30-16
13-16
168.9Avg total
89.3Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)96.077.5173.5+18.5100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)96.077.5173.5+18.5100%
Last 10 (10)89.379.6168.9+9.780%
Last 5 (5)92.082.0174.0+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)90.578.1168.6+12.580%
This opponent (Union Atletica) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 157Actual: Over 157
Over 157
61.6%
Under 157
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162.25 · main lineActual: Under 162.25
Over 162.25
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under 162.25
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 167Actual: Under 167
Over 167
37.0%
@ 2.20-5.1pp
Under 167
63.0%
@ 1.60+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.60

📊 3. Team Totals

Union Atletica total 72.5Actual: Union Atletica over 72.5
Over 72.5
57.6%
@ 1.43-3.2pp
Under 72.5
42.4%
@ 2.22+3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.22
Union Atletica total 76.5 · main lineActual: Union Atletica under 76.5
Over 76.5
41.9%
@ 1.84-6.5pp
Under 76.5
58.1%
@ 1.83+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.63
Union Atletica total 80.5Actual: Union Atletica under 80.5
Over 80.5
27.7%
Under 80.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol total 83.5Actual: Penarol over 83.5
Over 83.5
64.9%
@ 1.45+5.0pp
Under 83.5
35.1%
@ 2.16-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.16
Penarol total 87.5 · main lineActual: Penarol over 87.5
Over 87.5
49.2%
@ 1.87+1.1pp
Under 87.5
50.8%
@ 1.83-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.60
Penarol total 91.5Actual: Penarol under 91.5
Over 91.5
33.5%
Under 91.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Union Atletica +7.5Actual: Penarol -7.5
UNIO +7.5
32.0%
@ 2.29-6.6pp
PENA -7.5
68.0%
@ 1.44+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UNIO
1xBet
2.29
PENA
1xBet
1.44
Spread Union Atletica +10.5 · main lineActual: Penarol -10.5
UNIO +10.5
42.3%
@ 1.91-6.9pp
PENA -10.5
57.7%
@ 1.84+6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UNIO
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.79
PENA
Pinnacle
1.84
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Spread Union Atletica +13.5Actual: Penarol -13.5
UNIO +13.5
53.1%
@ 1.48-6.7pp
PENA -13.5
46.9%
@ 2.20+6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UNIO
1xBet
1.48
PENA
1xBet
2.20

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +6.5+6.5Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: +1.0+1.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +6.5+6.5Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: +1.0+1.0
Union AtleticaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Union AtleticaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#11
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A06/03
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
61-40
61
40
+21
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H14/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A21/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Larranaga
#7
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#5
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A24/10
Liga Uruguaya
Atenas
#12
L
37-53
37
53
-16
H26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#2
L
44-55
44
55
-11
A30/10
Liga Uruguaya
88.7Avg total
44.7Scored
44.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)42.242.384.5-0.143%57%
Last 30 at home (15)45.241.786.9+3.567%73%
Last 30 away (15)39.242.982.1-3.720%40%
Last 10 (10)44.744.088.7+0.740%70%
Last 5 (5)42.645.688.2-3.040%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)40.445.986.3-5.429%71%
vs Similar (13)41.042.283.2-1.238%38%
vs Weaker (10)45.039.984.9+5.160%70%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#7
W
44-31
44
31
+13
A23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H27/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H20/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A23/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#10
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#6
W
58-44
58
44
+14
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
93.6Avg total
47.9Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)47.041.088.1+6.070%67%
Last 30 at home (15)48.538.987.3+9.673%67%
Last 30 away (15)45.643.288.8+2.467%67%
Last 10 (10)47.945.793.6+2.260%80%
Last 5 (5)50.047.297.2+2.860%100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)47.041.088.1+6.070%67%
This opponent (Union Atletica) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Penarol win
UNIO win
no forecast
@ 3.86
PENA win
no forecast
@ 1.29
1st half Spread Union Atletica +6 · main lineActual: Union Atletica +6
UNIO +6
no forecast
@ 1.87
PENA -6
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Under 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Union Atletica 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Union Atletica over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Penarol 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Penarol under 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: UNIO + total 83.5
UNIO & over
no forecast
@ 6.50
UNIO & under
no forecast
@ 6.50
1st half: Draw + total 83.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half: PENA + total 83.5
PENA & over
no forecast
@ 2.60
PENA & under
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Over/Under 82Actual: Under 82
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Union Atletica +5Actual: Union Atletica +5
UNIO +5
no forecast
@ 2.05
PENA -5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Union Atletica +7Actual: Union Atletica +7
UNIO +7
no forecast
@ 1.70
PENA -7
no forecast
@ 2.06
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Union Atletica +3.5Actual: Union Atletica +3.5
UNIO +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
PENA -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Union Atletica +9.5Actual: Union Atletica +9.5
UNIO +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
PENA -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Spread Union Atletica +1.5Actual: Union Atletica +1.5
UNIO +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.72
PENA -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Penarol (regulation)
UNIO
no forecast
@ 3.83
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
PENA
no forecast
@ 1.34

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UNIO win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
PENA win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UNIO leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Penarol (regulation)84.9%1.17
1xBet
1.17		----+11.6ppWon
Penarol win86.6%1.14
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.12		+6.4ppWon
Penarol over 70.595.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+5.9ppWon
Penarol over 68.596.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+5.7ppWon
Penarol over 76.586.0%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+5.5ppWon
Penarol over 72.593.0%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+5.5ppWon
Overtime: no97.2%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+5.2pp-
Penarol over 74.590.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+4.9ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Union Atleticatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Union Atletica: 82.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.619.0
46.8%
50.3%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.69.3
32.5%
32.1%27.9
🏀 Free throws21.016.3
77.6%
70.5%16.3
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 89.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.224.6
56.9%
50.3%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.0
32.4%
32.1%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.113.0
64.7%
70.5%13.0
They take 71.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Union Atletica
LLLWWLLWWL
Penarol
WWWWLLWWWW
#11
League position
#1
+2.5
Net rating
+12.9
96.0
Offensive rating
100.0
93.6
Defensive rating
87.1
47.6%
Effective FG%
53.7%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
11.1%
Turnover %
13.6%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.5%
3-point %
32.4%
56.2%
Assist %
61.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence96.0 · 100.0Defence93.6 · 87.1Shooting47.6% · 53.7%3-point %32.5% · 32.4%Ball care11.1% · 13.6%Free throws0.30 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 80%
■ Union Atletica   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Union Atletica wins
2
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
18/12/25Penarol v Union Atletica88-80
20/10/25Union Atletica v Penarol59-90
Union Atleticalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26AGoes83-97
26/10/26HAtenas73-82
24/10/26AAguada63-66
21/10/26ALarranaga94-78
23/03/26HCordon95-71
21/03/26ABigua76-81
18/03/26AUrunday75-89
14/03/26HGoes94-84
10/03/26HWelcome104-91
06/03/26ACordon68-83
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26AMalvin101-76
22/10/26AUrunday91-79
23/06/26AAguada107-92
20/06/26HAguada80-71
17/06/26AAguada81-92
13/06/26AAguada71-78
10/06/26HAguada89-84
04/06/26HAguada99-82
27/05/26HDefensor93-81
23/05/26ADefensor81-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Union Atletica
Liga Uruguaya 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLL25%
HomeL0%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%0%33%
Points / game78.273.080.0
Allowed / game80.882.080.3
Point differential-2.5-9.0-0.3
Avg total159.0155.0160.3
Over 162.2550%0%67%
Win by 10+25%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
Home--
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %100%-100%
Points / game96.0-96.0
Allowed / game77.5-77.5
Point differential+18.5-+18.5
Avg total173.5-173.5
Over 162.25100%-100%
Win by 10+100%-100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol220100%96.077.5+18.5
2 Bigua440100%93.583.2+10.2
3 Goes43175%93.886.8+7.0
4 Aguada43175%77.073.0+4.0
5 Defensor21150%82.576.5+6.0
6 Malvin42250%77.083.8-6.8
7 Larranaga52340%84.685.2-0.6
8 Nacional31233%93.794.7-1.0
9 Hebraica y Macabi31233%81.384.3-3.0
10 Urunday41325%84.285.2-1.0
11 Union Atletica41325%78.280.8-2.5
12 Atenas51420%71.086.6-15.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Union Atletica1624171774
Penarol1822351388
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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