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Aguada vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 23 Jun 2026
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 92-107
21-31 32-23 16-32 23-21
Position#3
Record29-15
FormLLWWL
Points / game89.4
Allowed / game86.0
vs
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
Position#1
Record35-8
FormWWLLW
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game75.0
UruguayLiga UruguayaLiga Uruguaya - Final· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Penarol
22 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA107
16 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA81
12 Jun 2026
AGUA78
PENA71
09 Mar 2026
AGUA86
PENA80
27 Jan 2026
AGUA91
PENA80
23 Jan 2026
AGUA v PENA
upcoming
14 Jan 2025
AGUA77
PENA69
14 Jun 2024
AGUA88
PENA74
06 Jun 2024
AGUA97
PENA90
12 Apr 2024
AGUA77
PENA82
27 Oct 2023
AGUA77
PENA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
85-81
85
81
+4
A13/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
96-83
96
83
+13
A19/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
89-109
89
109
-20
H21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
87-74
87
74
+13
A25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
92-91 OT
92
91
+1
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
82-99
82
99
-17
A04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
84-89
84
89
-5
A10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
78-71
78
71
+7
H13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
92-81
92
81
+11
H17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
71-80
71
80
-9
A20/06
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
20-35
18-13
26-14
27-25
30-21
21-21
18-16
26-24
31-28
14-32
18-25
29-18
26-21
16-25
16-10
15-20
22-28
24-15
19-17
22-27
25-24
17-25
18-23
23-28
26-20
17-26
18-15
19-15
27-18
14-19
18-19
21-13
19-32
25-19
27-17
26-25
23-20
14-12
8-23
171.4Avg total
85.6Scored
85.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)89.486.0175.5+3.466%
Season at home (21)93.083.9176.8+9.190%
Season away (23)86.288.0174.2-1.843%
Last 10 (10)85.685.8171.4-0.260%
Last 5 (5)81.484.0165.4-2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)83.489.6173.1-6.244%
vs Similar (1)90.076.0166.0+14.0100%
vs Weaker (13)85.180.8165.8+4.377%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urunday
#9
W
109-86
109
86
+23
A08/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
87-64
87
64
+23
H12/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
101-51
101
51
+50
H20/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
81-61
81
61
+20
A23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
93-81
93
81
+12
H27/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
71-78
71
78
-7
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
81-92
81
92
-11
A17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
80-71
80
71
+9
H20/06
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-18
29-30
34-24
23-14
20-14
15-16
21-19
31-15
24-9
33-11
25-10
19-21
18-16
26-15
22-20
15-10
25-25
28-23
20-17
20-16
27-22
24-25
25-17
23-18
28-23
20-26
26-17
15-18
15-19
18-27
19-14
19-18
13-21
32-19
19-25
17-27
25-26
20-23
12-14
23-8
164.1Avg total
89.1Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (43)88.075.0163.0+13.081%
Season at home (23)90.674.3164.8+16.396%
Season away (20)85.275.8161.0+9.365%
Last 10 (10)89.175.0164.1+14.180%
Last 5 (5)84.081.4165.4+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)88.776.7165.4+12.080%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q3: +4.6+4.6Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +4.0+4.0
AguadaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
41-54
41
54
-13
A13/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A19/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A20/06
Liga Uruguaya
93.9Avg total
47.8Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.645.089.6-0.453%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.942.387.2+2.567%-
Last 30 away (15)44.347.691.9-3.340%-
Last 10 (10)47.846.193.9+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)46.244.490.6+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)44.746.991.6-2.250%-
vs Similar (1)44.036.080.0+8.0100%-
vs Weaker (13)44.543.287.8+1.354%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urunday
#9
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A08/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H12/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
57-20
57
20
+37
H20/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
44-31
44
31
+13
A23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H27/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H20/06
Liga Uruguaya
87.1Avg total
46.3Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.939.485.3+6.573%-
Last 30 at home (17)47.938.586.4+9.476%-
Last 30 away (13)43.340.583.8+2.869%-
Last 10 (10)46.340.887.1+5.570%-
Last 5 (5)44.446.290.6-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)45.939.485.3+6.573%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 85.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.818.1
52.0%
53.3%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.19.6
33.0%
33.3%28.8
🏀 Free throws24.620.2
82.1%
70.9%20.2
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 87.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.023.7
53.9%
53.3%47.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.18.8
32.5%
33.3%26.4
🏀 Free throws20.513.7
66.8%
70.9%13.7
They take 71.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Jun 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LWWLLWWLWW
Penarol
WLLWWWWWWW
#3
League position
#1
-0.5
Net rating
+13.9
91.7
Offensive rating
96.7
92.3
Defensive rating
82.8
50.9%
Effective FG%
51.9%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
47.3%
16.1%
Turnover %
13.1%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.29
33.0%
3-point %
32.5%
64.3%
Assist %
65.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence91.7 · 96.7Defence92.3 · 82.8Shooting50.9% · 51.9%3-point %33.0% · 32.5%Ball care16.1% · 13.1%Free throws0.38 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 80%
■ Aguada   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Aguada wins
5
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
20/06/26Penarol v Aguada80-71
17/06/26Aguada v Penarol92-81
13/06/26Aguada v Penarol78-71
10/06/26Penarol v Aguada89-84
04/06/26Penarol v Aguada99-82
18/04/26Penarol v Aguada103-95
10/03/26Aguada v Penarol86-80
27/01/26Aguada v Penarol91-80
08/11/25Penarol v Aguada103-89
17/03/25Penarol v Aguada78-85
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/06/26APenarol71-80
17/06/26HPenarol92-81
13/06/26HPenarol78-71
10/06/26APenarol84-89
04/06/26APenarol82-99
28/05/26HNacional92-91 OT
25/05/26ANacional87-74
21/05/26HNacional89-109
19/05/26ANacional96-83
13/05/26AHebraica y Macabi85-81
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/06/26HAguada80-71
17/06/26AAguada81-92
13/06/26AAguada71-78
10/06/26HAguada89-84
04/06/26HAguada99-82
27/05/26HDefensor93-81
23/05/26ADefensor81-61
20/05/26HDefensor101-51
12/05/26HUrunday87-64
08/05/26AUrunday109-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL66%
HomeWLWWW90%
AwayWWLLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442123
Win %66%90%43%
Points / game89.493.086.2
Allowed / game86.083.988.0
Point differential+3.4+9.1-1.8
Avg total175.5176.8174.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%52%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (12)80% (5)57% (7)
Overtime %5%5%4%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW81%
HomeWWWWW96%
AwayWWWLL65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games432320
Win %81%96%65%
Points / game88.090.685.2
Allowed / game75.074.375.8
Point differential+13.0+16.3+9.3
Avg total163.0164.8161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+65%74%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %5%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol4335881%88.075.0+13.0
2 Nacional39261367%91.783.0+8.7
3 Aguada44291566%89.486.0+3.4
4 Malvin36191753%79.982.6-2.6
5 Bigua31161552%88.688.6+0.0
6 Union Atletica28141450%83.582.6+0.9
7 Defensor39182146%83.384.5-1.2
8 Hebraica y Macabi35161946%82.984.0-1.1
9 Urunday30131743%87.686.3+1.3
10 Goes2791833%83.789.1-5.4
11 Cordon2852318%80.894.4-13.6
12 Welcome2842414%81.195.8-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2132162392
Penarol31233221107
← all games of the day
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