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Aguada vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 17 Jun 2026
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 92-81
21-13 19-32 25-19 27-17
Position#3
Record28-14
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game86.3
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#1
Record34-7
FormWWWWL
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game74.7
UruguayLiga UruguayaLiga Uruguaya - Final· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Penarol
22 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA107
16 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA81
12 Jun 2026
AGUA78
PENA71
09 Mar 2026
AGUA86
PENA80
27 Jan 2026
AGUA91
PENA80
23 Jan 2026
AGUA v PENA
upcoming
14 Jan 2025
AGUA77
PENA69
14 Jun 2024
AGUA88
PENA74
06 Jun 2024
AGUA97
PENA90
12 Apr 2024
AGUA77
PENA82
27 Oct 2023
AGUA77
PENA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
78-73
78
73
+5
A07/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
84-74
84
74
+10
H09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
85-81
85
81
+4
A13/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
96-83
96
83
+13
A19/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
89-109
89
109
-20
H21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
87-74
87
74
+13
A25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
92-91 OT
92
91
+1
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
82-99
82
99
-17
A04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
84-89
84
89
-5
A10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
78-71
78
71
+7
H13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-17
15-23
20-17
20-16
27-20
23-17
23-21
11-16
21-19
20-35
18-13
26-14
27-25
30-21
21-21
18-16
26-24
31-28
14-32
18-25
29-18
26-21
16-25
16-10
15-20
22-28
24-15
19-17
22-27
25-24
17-25
18-23
23-28
26-20
17-26
18-15
19-15
27-18
14-19
18-19
169.9Avg total
85.5Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)89.886.3176.1+3.567%
Season at home (20)93.084.0177.0+9.090%
Season away (22)86.988.4175.3-1.545%
Last 10 (10)85.584.4169.9+1.170%
Last 5 (5)84.684.8169.4-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)83.790.9174.6-7.243%
vs Similar (1)90.076.0166.0+14.0100%
vs Weaker (15)87.080.8167.8+6.280%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
89-67
89
67
+22
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
109-86
109
86
+23
A08/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
87-64
87
64
+23
H12/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
101-51
101
51
+50
H20/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
81-61
81
61
+20
A23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
93-81
93
81
+12
H27/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
71-78
71
78
-7
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
24-20
15-11
17-11
31-22
21-9
22-24
15-12
23-18
29-30
34-24
23-14
20-14
15-16
21-19
31-15
24-9
33-11
25-10
19-21
18-16
26-15
22-20
15-10
25-25
28-23
20-17
20-16
27-22
24-25
25-17
23-18
28-23
20-26
26-17
15-18
15-19
18-27
19-14
19-18
160.9Avg total
89.3Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)88.474.7163.1+13.783%
Season at home (22)91.074.4165.5+16.695%
Season away (19)85.475.0160.4+10.468%
Last 10 (10)89.371.6160.9+17.790%
Last 5 (5)86.677.2163.8+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)89.075.8164.9+13.283%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +4.1+4.1Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +5.6+5.6Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +4.4+4.4
AguadaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A07/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
41-54
41
54
-13
A13/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A19/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H13/06
Liga Uruguaya
92.5Avg total
47.7Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.844.989.7-0.153%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.842.387.1+2.567%-
Last 30 away (15)44.847.592.3-2.740%-
Last 10 (10)47.744.892.5+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)46.843.890.6+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)44.747.291.9-2.550%-
vs Similar (1)44.036.080.0+8.0100%-
vs Weaker (15)44.943.388.3+1.653%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
52-31
52
31
+21
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A08/05
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H12/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
57-20
57
20
+37
H20/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
44-31
44
31
+13
A23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H27/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H04/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
85.7Avg total
46.7Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.938.584.3+7.477%-
Last 30 at home (17)47.637.585.1+10.182%-
Last 30 away (13)43.639.883.4+3.869%-
Last 10 (10)46.739.085.7+7.780%-
Last 5 (5)45.844.290.0+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)45.938.584.3+7.477%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 85.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.118.8
53.6%
53.3%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.59.7
32.9%
33.3%29.1
🏀 Free throws23.018.5
80.4%
70.9%18.5
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 87.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.6 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.824.8
56.6%
53.3%49.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.4
31.1%
33.3%25.2
🏀 Free throws19.012.8
67.4%
70.9%12.8
They take 70.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Jun 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
WLLWWLWWWW
Penarol
LWWWWWWWWW
#3
League position
#1
+1.0
Net rating
+17.8
93.2
Offensive rating
97.6
92.2
Defensive rating
79.8
51.6%
Effective FG%
52.8%
47.8%
Opp. effective FG%
47.1%
14.2%
Turnover %
13.7%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.27
32.9%
3-point %
31.1%
61.4%
Assist %
65.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence93.2 · 97.6Defence92.2 · 79.8Shooting51.6% · 52.8%3-point %32.9% · 31.1%Ball care14.2% · 13.7%Free throws0.36 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 90%
■ Aguada   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Aguada wins
5
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
13/06/26Aguada v Penarol78-71
10/06/26Penarol v Aguada89-84
04/06/26Penarol v Aguada99-82
18/04/26Penarol v Aguada103-95
10/03/26Aguada v Penarol86-80
27/01/26Aguada v Penarol91-80
08/11/25Penarol v Aguada103-89
17/03/25Penarol v Aguada78-85
15/01/25Aguada v Penarol77-69
28/10/24Penarol v Aguada86-77 OT
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/06/26HPenarol78-71
10/06/26APenarol84-89
04/06/26APenarol82-99
28/05/26HNacional92-91 OT
25/05/26ANacional87-74
21/05/26HNacional89-109
19/05/26ANacional96-83
13/05/26AHebraica y Macabi85-81
09/05/26HHebraica y Macabi84-74
07/05/26AHebraica y Macabi78-73
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/06/26AAguada71-78
10/06/26HAguada89-84
04/06/26HAguada99-82
27/05/26HDefensor93-81
23/05/26ADefensor81-61
20/05/26HDefensor101-51
12/05/26HUrunday87-64
08/05/26AUrunday109-86
06/05/26HUrunday89-67
03/05/26HHebraica y Macabi74-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeLWLWW90%
AwayWWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422022
Win %67%90%45%
Points / game89.893.086.9
Allowed / game86.384.088.4
Point differential+3.5+9.0-1.5
Avg total176.1177.0175.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (12)80% (5)57% (7)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeWWWWW95%
AwayLWWWL68%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412219
Win %83%95%68%
Points / game88.491.085.4
Allowed / game74.774.475.0
Point differential+13.7+16.6+10.4
Avg total163.1165.5160.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+68%77%58%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %5%0%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol4134783%88.474.7+13.7
2 Nacional39261367%91.783.0+8.7
3 Aguada42281467%89.886.3+3.5
4 Malvin36191753%79.982.6-2.6
5 Bigua31161552%88.688.6+0.0
6 Union Atletica28141450%83.582.6+0.9
7 Defensor39182146%83.384.5-1.2
8 Hebraica y Macabi35161946%82.984.0-1.1
9 Urunday30131743%87.686.3+1.3
10 Goes2791833%83.789.1-5.4
11 Cordon2852318%80.894.4-13.6
12 Welcome2842414%81.195.8-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2119252792
Penarol1332191781
← all games of the day
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