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Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 23 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 114-116
Projected total 230.3
Scheduled
Position#29
Record1-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game107.5
Allowed / game118.6
Vs
45%
55%
■ UTA 45%■ DAL 55%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.2/10
Below normal
4.1/10
Below normal
Position#14
Record7-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game113.5
Allowed / game113.3
USANBA· Delta Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Utah Jazz v Dallas Mavericks
22 Nov 2026
UTA v DAL
upcoming
08 Jan 2026
UTA116
DAL114
15 Dec 2025
UTA140
DAL133
30 Nov 2024
UTA94
DAL106
14 Nov 2024
UTA115
DAL113
25 Mar 2024
UTA105
DAL115
01 Jan 2024
UTA127
DAL90
06 Feb 2023
UTA111
DAL124
28 Jan 2023
UTA108
DAL100
28 Apr 2022
UTA96
DAL98
23 Apr 2022
UTA100
DAL99
21 Apr 2022
UTA118
DAL126
25 Feb 2022
UTA114
DAL109
25 Dec 2021
UTA120
DAL116
29 Jan 2021
UTA120
DAL101
27 Jan 2021
UTA116
DAL104
10 Aug 2020
UTA114
DAL122
25 Jan 2020
UTA112
DAL107
23 Feb 2019
UTA125
DAL109
07 Nov 2018
UTA117
DAL102
24 Feb 2018
UTA97
DAL90
30 Oct 2017
UTA104
DAL89
16 Dec 2016
UTA103
DAL100
02 Nov 2016
UTA97
DAL81
11 Apr 2016
UTA92
DAL101
13 Apr 2015
UTA109
DAL92
07 Nov 2014
UTA82
DAL105
08 Apr 2014
UTA83
DAL95
12 Mar 2014
UTA101
DAL108
07 Jan 2013
UTA100
DAL94
31 Oct 2012
UTA113
DAL94
16 Apr 2012
UTA123
DAL121
19 Jan 2012
UTA91
DAL94
26 Mar 2011
UTA77
DAL94
03 Dec 2010
UTA81
DAL93
01 Feb 2010
UTA104
DAL92
05 Feb 2009
UTA115
DAL87
26 Dec 2008
UTA97
DAL88
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Utah Jazz host Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. Pythia makes Dallas Mavericks the favourite at 55% and projects 114-116, about 230 points in all. Overtime chance: 7%. Utah Jazz are 1-12 this season (107.5 scored, 118.6 allowed a game), form LLLLL; Dallas Mavericks are 7-6 this season (113.5 scored, 113.3 allowed a game), form WWWLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Utah Jazz win
45.2%fair 2.21
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks win
54.8%fair 1.82
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Utah JazzUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJazz
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
L
105-110
105
110
-5
95avg 106
H27/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
111-117 OT
111
117
-6
105avg 106
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
90-112
90
112
-22
80avg 106
H31/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
97-119
97
119
-22
79avg 106
A03/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
113-120 OT
113
120
-7
101avg 106
A05/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
100-112
100
112
-12
95avg 106
A07/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 106
A09/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
L
109-115
109
115
-6
108avg 106
H11/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
108-123
108
123
-15
96avg 106
H12/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
118-125
118
125
-7
105avg 106
A14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-30
31-28
24-31
29-21
32-22
23-29
30-34
20-20
18-27
24-32
22-29
26-24
16-27
33-32
20-35
28-25
24-24
13-18
43-28
24-34
28-26
29-31
19-32
24-23
25-28
26-29
27-33
22-25
25-29
29-35
18-28
37-23
34-29
25-37
28-19
21-38
27-27
26-36
36-29
29-33
221.9Avg total
105.1Scored
116.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)107.5118.6226.1-11.28%
Season at home (7)109.4118.3227.7-8.914%
Season away (6)105.2119.0224.2-13.80%
Last 10 (10)105.1116.8221.9-11.70%
Last 5 (5)107.0118.0225.0-11.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)110.5126.7237.2-16.30%
vs Similar (7)123.7120.1243.9+3.643%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#15
W
113-109
113
109
+4
111avg 104
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
120-96
120
96
+24
114avg 104
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 104
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 104
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
111-112
111
112
-1
98avg 104
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
112-100
112
100
+12
104avg 104
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
130-93
130
93
+37
134avg 104
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
125-122
125
122
+3
120avg 104
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
94-133
94
133
-39
78avg 104
A13/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
117-127
117
127
-10
100avg 104
A15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
18-19
35-35
21-27
26-34
26-32
25-36
29-22
31-22
26-28
31-29
32-19
23-24
33-26
33-20
34-25
30-22
26-31
30-35
34-27
35-29
26-34
26-33
17-36
25-30
33-33
20-38
38-34
26-22
225.6Avg total
113.8Scored
111.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)113.5113.3226.8+0.254%
Season at home (7)115.6108.4224.0+7.171%
Season away (6)111.0119.0230.0-8.033%
Last 10 (10)113.8111.8225.6+2.060%
Last 5 (5)115.6115.0230.6+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)115.2125.9241.1-10.722%
vs Similar (9)119.4116.8236.2+2.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)114.0102.7216.7+11.367%
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%0%1801%1851%1902%1954%2005%2057%2108%21510%22011%22511%23010%2358%2407%2455%2504%2552%2602%2651%2701%2750%2800%285
0%1801%1904%2007%21010%22011%2308%2405%2502%2601%2700%280
Pythia expects about 230 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 230-234 (11%).
Over/Under 220.5
Over 220.5
69.2%
Under 220.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225.5
Over 225.5
59.0%
Under 225.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230.5
Over 230.5
48.3%
Under 230.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Utah Jazz total 109.5
Over 109.5
65.3%
Under 109.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Jazz total 113.5
Over 113.5
52.3%
Under 113.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Jazz total 117.5
Over 117.5
39.1%
Under 117.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dallas Mavericks total 108
Over 108
75.3%
Under 108
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dallas Mavericks total 112
Over 112
63.2%
Under 112
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dallas Mavericks total 116
Over 116
49.5%
Under 116
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%4%7%9%0%-391%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-186%-157%-128%-99%-68%-36%+08%+38%+66%+95%+124%+153%+182%+212%+241%+271%+300%+33
1%-361%-303%-245%-187%-129%-66%+08%+65%+123%+182%+241%+30
Margin from Utah Jazz's side (positive = Utah Jazz win). Pythia's expected margin is -1.6; Utah Jazz win by 1+ in 40% of simulations.
Spread Utah Jazz -3
UTA -3
38.7%
DAL +3
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
UTA
No market prices yet.
DAL
No market prices yet.
Spread Utah Jazz 0
UTA 0
45.2%
DAL 0
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
UTA
No market prices yet.
DAL
No market prices yet.
Spread Utah Jazz +3
UTA +3
51.6%
DAL -3
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
UTA
No market prices yet.
DAL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +4.2+4.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +4.2+4.2
Utah JazzDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Utah JazzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
L
52-58
52
58
-6
H27/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
42-59
42
59
-17
H31/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
49-59
49
59
-10
A03/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A05/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
D
57-57
57
57
+0
A07/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A09/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
59-66
59
66
-7
H12/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A14/11
NBA
108.5Avg total
50.9Scored
57.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.561.6117.1-6.023%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.560.7119.3-2.240%-
Last 30 away (15)52.562.4114.9-9.97%-
Last 10 (10)50.957.6108.5-6.710%-
Last 5 (5)54.861.4116.2-6.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)55.063.9119.0-8.913%-
vs Similar (7)57.153.9111.0+3.357%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#15
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
66-46
66
46
+20
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
56-66
56
66
-10
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A13/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
53-71
53
71
-18
A15/11
NBA
114.1Avg total
55.0Scored
59.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.261.1119.3-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.260.3120.5-0.140%-
Last 30 away (15)56.161.9118.1-5.833%-
Last 10 (10)55.059.1114.1-4.130%-
Last 5 (5)56.861.4118.2-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)56.463.6119.9-7.228%-
vs Similar (9)61.659.2120.8+2.356%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)58.752.3111.0+6.333%-
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Utah Jazztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Utah Jazz: 107.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.926.0
52.1%
54.0%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.512.1
32.3%
35.1%36.3
🏀 Free throws24.719.4
78.5%
77.3%19.4
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 119.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.530.1
57.3%
54.0%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.413.5
37.1%
35.1%40.5
🏀 Free throws23.818.6
78.2%
77.3%18.6
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Utah Jazz
LLLLLLLLLL
Dallas Mavericks
LLWWWLLWWW
#29
League position
#14
-10.1
Net rating
+6.0
104.7
Offensive rating
112.7
114.8
Defensive rating
106.8
50.5%
Effective FG%
56.6%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
15.7%
Turnover %
15.4%
26.2%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.27
32.3%
3-point %
37.1%
63.0%
Assist %
63.1%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence104.7 · 112.7Defence114.8 · 106.8Shooting50.5% · 56.6%3-point %32.3% · 37.1%Ball care15.7% · 15.4%Off. rebounds26.2% · 31.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)0% · 60%
■ Utah Jazz   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Utah Jazz wins
7
Dallas Mavericks wins
Utah Jazzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AHouston Rockets118-125
12/11/26HOrlando Magic108-123
11/11/26HMiami Heat109-115
09/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves100-115
07/11/26ADallas Mavericks100-112
05/11/26ANew Orleans Pelicans113-120 OT
03/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs97-119
31/10/26HPortland Trail Blazers90-112
29/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs111-117 OT
27/10/26HMemphis Grizzlies105-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-127
13/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-133
10/11/26HIndiana Pacers125-122
09/11/26HBrooklyn Nets130-93
07/11/26HUtah Jazz112-100
05/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs111-112
03/11/26HSacramento Kings100-115
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Utah Jazz
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %8%14%0%
Points / game107.5109.4105.2
Allowed / game118.6118.3119.0
Point differential-11.2-8.9-13.8
Avg total226.1227.7224.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %15%14%17%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL54%
HomeWLWWW71%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %54%71%33%
Points / game113.5115.6111.0
Allowed / game113.3108.4119.0
Point differential+0.2+7.1-8.0
Avg total226.8224.0230.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%43%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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