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UTRGV vs Texas State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 78-67
Projected total 144.7
Final 65-72
28-30 37-42
Position#168
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game74.5
Allowed / game57.0
UTRGV
USA
Vs
83%
17%
■ UTRG 83%■ TEXA 17%
Pythia win probability
Texas State 🏆
USA
Position#30
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game101.0
Allowed / game60.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UTRGV hosts Texas State on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UTRGV the clear favourite, rating them 83% to win largely because of their 2-0 record, 74.5 points per game and 57.0 allowed per game, while Texas State also sits at 2-0 but averages 101.0 points per game and allows 60.5. UTRGV has won both of its games, 68-63 over Prairie View A&M and 81-51 over Texas A&M-Kingsville, and has a 4-1 record in its last five outings, whereas Texas State's last five include a 135-66 win over Howard Payne, a 67-55 win over Texas A&M-CC and a 77-81 loss to Southern Miss. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 78-67 score, with UTRGV covering the 7.0-point spread 93% of the time and the over on the 145.5 total 47% of the time, and a 3% chance of overtime. The game ends with UTRGV's 78 points, Texas State's 67, and a total of 144.7 points.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UTRGV winLost
82.6%fair 1.21
Best odds3.30
Implied29.0%
Edge+53.6pp
Texas State winWon
17.4%fair 5.76
Best odds1.34
Implied71.0%
Edge-53.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UTRGVUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
57-66
57
66
-9
H14/02
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
70-65
70
65
+5
H17/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
96-75
96
75
+21
A21/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A24/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
W
63-55
63
55
+8
H28/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H03/03
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
86-68
86
68
+18
H10/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
80-84 OT
80
84
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-Kingsville
#415
W
81-51
81
51
+30
H03/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#226
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
19-25
38-41
32-30
38-35
46-26
50-49
22-34
46-41
24-34
39-21
39-30
35-32
44-32
42-36
23-31
35-27
42-19
39-32
30-29
38-34
140.7Avg total
74.3Scored
66.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)74.557.0131.5+17.5100%
Season at home (2)74.557.0131.5+17.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.366.4140.7+7.970%
Last 5 (5)77.865.6143.4+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)69.576.8146.3-7.317%
vs Similar (4)59.056.5115.5+2.550%
vs Weaker (19)79.167.8146.9+11.279%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H07/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
95-84
95
84
+11
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
90-82 OT
90
82
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#157
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#489
W
135-66
135
66
+69
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-31
47-40
36-25
41-36
36-29
38-33
45-43
50-41
40-33
35-42
18-34
36-33
34-33
26-24
33-37
44-44
35-26
32-29
64-30
71-36
149.2Avg total
80.6Scored
68.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)101.060.5161.5+40.5100%
Season at home (2)101.060.5161.5+40.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.668.6149.2+12.080%
Last 5 (5)78.665.2143.8+13.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)72.475.7148.2-3.344%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)79.261.9141.1+17.392%
This opponent (UTRGV) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 140.5Actual: Under 140.5
Over 140.5
59.6%
Under 140.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 145.5 · main lineActual: Under 145.5
Over 145.5
47.5%
@ 1.85-2.9pp
Under 145.5
52.5%
@ 1.86+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Under 150.5
Over 150.5
35.6%
Under 150.5
64.4%
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.62

📊 3. Team Totals

UTRGV total 69.5 · main lineActual: UTRGV under 69.5
Over 69.5
79.4%
@ 1.87+29.7pp
Under 69.5
20.6%
@ 1.85-29.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UTRGV total 73.5Actual: UTRGV under 73.5
Over 73.5
66.3%
Under 73.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas State total 74Actual: Texas State under 74
Over 74
23.6%
Under 74
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas State total 78 · main lineActual: Texas State under 78
Over 78
13.4%
@ 1.84-36.8pp
Under 78
86.6%
@ 1.86+36.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
Texas State total 82Actual: Texas State under 82
Over 82
7.0%
Under 82
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UTRGV +4Actual: Texas State -4
UTRG +4
89.6%
TEXA -4
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
UTRG
No market prices yet.
TEXA
No market prices yet.
Spread UTRGV +7 · main linePush
UTRG +7
93.5%
@ 1.85+43.3pp
TEXA -7
6.5%
@ 1.86-43.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UTRG
Marathon Be
1.85
TEXA
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread UTRGV +10Actual: UTRGV +10
UTRG +10
96.0%
TEXA -10
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
UTRG
No market prices yet.
TEXA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: +5.0+5.02nd half2nd half: +5.2+5.22nd half: +6.2+6.2
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: +5.0+5.02nd half2nd half: +5.2+5.22nd half: +6.2+6.2
UTRGVTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UTRGVLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
19-25
19
25
-6
H14/02
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H17/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A21/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
22-34
22
34
-12
A24/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
L
24-34
24
34
-10
H28/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/03
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H10/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
23-31
23
31
-8
A11/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-Kingsville
#415
W
42-19
42
19
+23
H03/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#226
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H07/11
NCAA
61.1Avg total
32.1Scored
29.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)35.430.165.5+5.367%43%
Last 30 at home (17)35.228.663.9+6.676%35%
Last 30 away (13)35.632.067.6+3.654%54%
Last 10 (10)32.129.061.1+3.160%20%
Last 5 (5)35.628.263.8+7.480%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)27.831.859.7-4.017%33%
vs Similar (4)27.525.553.0+2.075%0%
vs Weaker (19)39.131.170.2+8.079%58%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Southern
#142
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H07/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#157
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#489
W
64-30
64
30
+34
H06/11
NCAA
69.2Avg total
37.1Scored
32.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)35.233.368.5+1.950%43%
Last 30 at home (19)37.231.268.4+6.168%42%
Last 30 away (11)31.637.068.6-5.418%45%
Last 10 (10)37.132.169.2+5.070%40%
Last 5 (5)36.832.068.8+4.860%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)32.335.667.9-3.322%39%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)39.429.869.2+9.692%50%
This opponent (UTRGV) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread UTRGV +4 · main lineActual: UTRGV +4
UTRG +4
no forecast
@ 1.83
TEXA -4
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 69.5 · main lineActual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
UTRGV 1st half total 33.5 · main lineActual: UTRGV under 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Texas State (regulation)
UTRG
no forecast
@ 2.95
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
TEXA
no forecast
@ 1.45

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
🔒 2 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
UTRGV (regulation)80.6%3.58
Marathon Bet
3.58		----+55.3ppLost
UTRGV win82.6%3.26
Marathon Bet
3.30
WilliamHill
3.25
1xBet
3.22		--+53.6ppLost
UTRGV +6.592.4%1.91
1xBet
1.91		----+43.9ppLost
UTRGV +793.5%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		----+43.3ppPush
UTRGV +7.593.5%1.80
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80		---+41.9ppWon
UTRGV +8.594.5%1.71
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.68		---+40.9ppWon
UTRGV +894.4%1.73
Marathon Bet
1.73		----+40.8ppWon
Texas State under 7886.6%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86		----+36.8ppWon
Texas State under 77.584.8%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+34.2ppWon
Texas State under 7784.4%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+33.9ppWon
Texas State under 76.582.4%1.81
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80		---+31.4ppWon
UTRGV over 69.579.4%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85		---+29.7ppLost
UTRGV over 7078.8%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+28.2ppLost
UTRGV over 70.576.4%1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84		----+26.2ppLost
Overtime: no96.6%1.04
WilliamHill
1.04		----+6.1pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UTRGV wins
0
Texas State wins
No previous meetings.
UTRGVlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HPrairie View A&M68-63
03/11/26HTexas A&M-Kingsville81-51
11/03/26AMcNeese State80-84 OT
10/03/26HNicholls State86-68
03/03/26HNorthwestern St.74-62
28/02/26HEast Texas A&M63-55
24/02/26AMcNeese State68-75
21/02/26ASE Louisiana96-75
17/02/26HLamar70-65
14/02/26HStephen F. Austin57-66
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HHoward Payne135-66
03/11/26HTexas A&M-CC67-55
06/03/26HSouthern Miss77-81
28/02/26HAppalachian State60-57
21/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette54-67
20/02/26ASouth Alabama90-82 OT
14/02/26HLouisiana Monroe95-84
12/02/26HTroy74-62
07/02/26HWestern Michigan77-61
05/02/26AGeorgia Southern77-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UTRGV
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game74.574.5-
Allowed / game57.057.0-
Point differential+17.5+17.5-
Avg total131.5131.5-
Over 145.50%0%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Texas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game101.0101.0-
Allowed / game60.560.5-
Point differential+40.5+40.5-
Avg total161.5161.5-
Over 145.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin220100%104.546.5+58.0
2 Houston Christian220100%91.056.0+35.0
3 UTRGV220100%74.557.0+17.5
4 McNeese State32167%100.380.7+19.7
5 Lamar21150%102.572.5+30.0
6 Nicholls State21150%86.563.0+23.5
7 Texas A&M-CC21150%61.063.5-2.5
8 New Orleans21150%73.582.5-9.0
9 SE Louisiana21150%71.085.5-14.5
10 Incarnate Word3030%58.078.7-20.7
11 Northwestern St.3030%60.087.3-27.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State220100%101.060.5+40.5
2 Old Dominion330100%78.052.7+25.3
3 Southern Miss21150%69.559.0+10.5
4 Arkansas State21150%78.585.5-7.0
5 Georgia State31233%83.771.3+12.3
6 Appalachian State31233%70.060.3+9.7
7 Marshall31233%80.776.7+4.0
8 Louisiana Monroe31233%81.382.0-0.7
9 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
10 Georgia Southern31233%80.382.3-2.0
11 South Alabama31233%76.380.7-4.3
12 Troy31233%67.377.0-9.7
13 Coastal Carolina31233%62.380.0-17.7
14 James Madison2020%78.587.5-9.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UTRGV283765
Texas State304272
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