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Texas State vs Southern Miss Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 06 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 77-81
0-0 33-37 0-0 44-44
Position#125
Record19-12
FormWWWLW
Points / game73.8
Allowed / game70.6
Texas State
USA
vs
Southern Miss 🏆
USA
Position#174
Record17-15
FormWWLWW
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game73.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Texas State v Southern Miss
13 Nov 2026
TEXA v SOUT
upcoming
06 Mar 2026
TEXA77
SOUT81
17 Jan 2026
TEXA74
SOUT67
18 Jan 2025
TEXA85
SOUT82
03 Feb 2024
TEXA60
SOUT55
24 Feb 2023
TEXA69
SOUT79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Southern Miss winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison
#169
L
57-82
57
82
-25
A24/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
72-68
72
68
+4
H29/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
81-64
81
64
+17
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H07/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
95-84
95
84
+11
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
90-82 OT
90
82
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
28-47
0-0
29-35
0-0
39-29
0-0
33-39
0-0
42-33
0-0
39-31
0-0
30-31
0-0
47-40
0-0
36-25
0-0
41-36
0-0
36-29
0-0
38-33
0-0
45-43
0-0
50-41
0-0
40-33
0-0
35-42
0-0
18-34
0-0
36-33
0-0
34-33
0-0
26-24
143.5Avg total
73.7Scored
69.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)73.870.6144.5+3.261%
Season at home (18)76.764.9141.7+11.889%
Season away (13)69.878.5148.3-8.823%
Last 10 (10)73.769.8143.5+3.980%
Last 5 (5)74.670.4145.0+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (17)72.275.4147.6-3.247%
vs Weaker (13)77.963.5141.4+14.585%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Appalachian State
#119
L
63-70
63
70
-7
H30/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
W
73-65
73
65
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
77-81
77
81
-4
A05/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
W
66-65
66
65
+1
H07/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
78-84
78
84
-6
H13/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H15/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
86-81
86
81
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
84-89
84
89
-5
A25/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
68-55
68
55
+13
A28/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
W
86-80
86
80
+6
H05/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
27-29
0-0
36-41
0-0
29-21
0-0
44-44
0-0
38-34
0-0
39-47
0-0
34-30
0-0
32-35
0-0
36-42
0-0
42-42
0-0
26-26
0-0
43-39
0-0
40-47
0-0
46-34
0-0
44-53
0-0
40-36
0-0
35-29
0-0
33-26
0-0
35-33
0-0
51-47
148.5Avg total
75.0Scored
73.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)74.373.7148.0+0.753%
Season at home (16)76.569.1145.6+7.481%
Season away (16)72.178.2150.3-6.125%
Last 10 (10)75.073.5148.5+1.560%
Last 5 (5)78.674.0152.6+4.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)70.977.6148.5-6.838%
vs Similar ◀ (15)74.075.3149.3-1.347%
vs Weaker (7)75.666.4142.0+9.186%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: +1.5+1.5
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: +1.5+1.5
Texas StateSouthern Miss
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison
#169
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A24/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H29/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H07/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H28/02
NCAA
68.5Avg total
34.8Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.132.867.9+2.353%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.030.667.6+6.472%-
Last 30 away (12)32.236.168.3-3.825%-
Last 10 (10)34.833.768.5+1.170%-
Last 5 (5)34.634.469.0+0.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (17)32.335.567.8-3.224%-
vs Weaker (13)38.829.267.9+9.692%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Appalachian State
#119
L
27-29
27
29
-2
H30/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
W
29-21
29
21
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A05/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H07/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H13/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
D
26-26
26
26
+0
H15/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H21/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
44-53
44
53
-9
A25/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A28/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H05/03
NCAA
68.8Avg total
34.4Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.733.466.0-0.750%-
Last 30 at home (15)32.431.163.5+1.353%-
Last 30 away (15)32.935.668.5-2.747%-
Last 10 (10)34.434.468.8+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)36.037.673.6-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)33.034.467.4-1.425%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)31.934.166.0-2.347%-
vs Weaker (7)34.030.664.6+3.486%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Texas State wins
5
Southern Miss wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Texas State v Southern Miss74-67
09/01/26Southern Miss v Texas State80-70 OT
18/01/25Texas State v Southern Miss85-82 OT
11/01/25Southern Miss v Texas State92-88 OT
07/03/24Southern Miss v Texas State59-75
17/02/24Southern Miss v Texas State78-74
03/02/24Texas State v Southern Miss60-55
25/02/23Texas State v Southern Miss69-79
28/01/23Southern Miss v Texas State67-58
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HAppalachian State60-57
21/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette54-67
20/02/26ASouth Alabama90-82 OT
14/02/26HLouisiana Monroe95-84
12/02/26HTroy74-62
07/02/26HWestern Michigan77-61
05/02/26AGeorgia Southern77-71
31/01/26HOld Dominion81-64
29/01/26HMarshall72-68
24/01/26AJames Madison57-82
Southern Misslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26HJames Madison86-80
28/02/26ASouth Alabama68-55
25/02/26AArkansas State84-89
21/02/26HOld Dominion86-81
15/02/26HTroy69-65
13/02/26HSouth Alabama78-84
07/02/26HKent State66-65
05/02/26AMarshall77-81
31/01/26HJames Madison73-65
30/01/26HAppalachian State63-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW61%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayLLWWL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311813
Win %61%89%23%
Points / game73.876.769.8
Allowed / game70.664.978.5
Point differential+3.2+11.8-8.8
Avg total144.5141.7148.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)83% (6)25% (4)
Overtime %10%6%15%
Southern Miss
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW53%
HomeWLWWW81%
AwayLLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %53%81%25%
Points / game74.376.572.1
Allowed / game73.769.178.2
Point differential+0.7+7.4-6.1
Avg total148.0145.6150.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%31%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)100% (3)0% (5)
Overtime %6%6%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy31201165%80.573.6+6.9
2 Arkansas State32201262%83.077.2+5.8
3 Appalachian State31191261%72.065.4+6.6
4 South Alabama31191261%73.969.4+4.5
5 Marshall31191261%81.277.9+3.3
6 Texas State31191261%73.870.6+3.2
7 Coastal Carolina31191261%73.471.8+1.5
8 Georgia Southern33181555%80.679.9+0.7
9 James Madison33181555%74.573.8+0.7
10 Southern Miss32171553%74.373.7+0.7
11 Old Dominion33122136%76.277.9-1.7
12 Louisiana Lafayette33112233%63.770.7-7.0
13 Georgia State32102231%70.474.7-4.3
14 Louisiana Monroe3242812%72.483.9-11.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Texas State03304477
Southern Miss03704481
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