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Texas State vs Appalachian State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 60-57
0-0 34-33 0-0 26-24
Position#125
Record18-12
FormWWWWL
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game71.1
vs
Position#119
Record19-11
FormWWLLW
Points / game72.5
Allowed / game65.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Texas State v Appalachian State
27 Feb 2026
TEXA60
APPA57
07 Feb 2024
TEXA63
APPA56
03 Feb 2022
TEXA68
APPA66
06 Mar 2021
TEXA73
APPA76
11 Mar 2020
TEXA85
APPA68
11 Jan 2020
TEXA82
APPA57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Appalachian State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
70-72
70
72
-2
A23/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
57-82
57
82
-25
A24/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
72-68
72
68
+4
H29/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
81-64
81
64
+17
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H07/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
95-84
95
84
+11
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
90-82 OT
90
82
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
27-32
0-0
43-40
0-0
28-47
0-0
29-35
0-0
39-29
0-0
33-39
0-0
42-33
0-0
39-31
0-0
30-31
0-0
47-40
0-0
36-25
0-0
41-36
0-0
36-29
0-0
38-33
0-0
45-43
0-0
50-41
0-0
40-33
0-0
35-42
0-0
18-34
0-0
36-33
146.0Avg total
74.7Scored
71.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)74.371.1145.4+3.260%
Season at home (17)77.765.4143.1+12.388%
Season away (13)69.878.5148.3-8.823%
Last 10 (10)74.771.3146.0+3.470%
Last 5 (5)78.071.2149.2+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)48.083.0131.0-35.00%
vs Similar ◀ (16)72.976.6149.5-3.644%
vs Weaker (13)77.963.5141.4+14.585%
This opponent (Appalachian State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Appalachian StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
72-58
72
58
+14
H22/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
59-43
59
43
+16
H23/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
70-63
70
63
+7
A30/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
66-44
66
44
+22
A31/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
65-57
65
57
+8
H04/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
65-60
65
60
+5
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
81-65
81
65
+16
A12/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
58-69
58
69
-11
A14/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
93-94
93
94
-1
H19/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
89-74
89
74
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
31-30
0-0
41-28
0-0
28-20
0-0
31-23
0-0
29-27
0-0
41-36
0-0
36-24
0-0
30-20
0-0
29-23
0-0
36-34
0-0
36-33
0-0
29-27
0-0
31-27
0-0
50-38
0-0
24-29
0-0
34-40
0-0
52-41
0-0
41-53
0-0
40-33
0-0
49-41
134.5Avg total
71.8Scored
62.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)72.565.6138.1+6.963%
Season at home (16)76.963.7140.6+13.275%
Season away (14)67.467.8135.2-0.450%
Last 10 (10)71.862.7134.5+9.180%
Last 5 (5)77.272.4149.6+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)86.078.0164.0+8.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (6)70.872.2143.0-1.333%
vs Weaker (23)72.363.3135.7+9.070%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +4.2+4.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +4.2+4.2
Texas StateAppalachian State
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A23/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A24/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H29/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H07/02
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A21/02
NCAA
67.7Avg total
34.1Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.933.067.9+1.950%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.230.467.6+6.871%-
Last 30 away (13)32.036.468.4-4.423%-
Last 10 (10)34.133.667.7+0.560%-
Last 5 (5)35.032.867.8+2.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)29.040.069.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)32.235.767.9-3.519%-
vs Weaker (13)38.829.267.9+9.692%-
This opponent (Appalachian State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Appalachian StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H22/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
28-20
28
20
+8
H23/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
29-27
29
27
+2
A30/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
36-24
36
24
+12
A31/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
29-23
29
23
+6
H04/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A12/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
24-29
24
29
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H19/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H21/02
NCAA
62.3Avg total
33.6Scored
28.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.029.262.2+3.863%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.429.665.1+5.869%-
Last 30 away (14)30.328.759.0+1.657%-
Last 10 (10)33.628.762.3+4.990%-
Last 5 (5)36.632.669.2+4.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.033.067.0+1.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)33.831.365.2+2.567%-
vs Weaker (23)32.828.561.3+4.361%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Texas State wins
4
Appalachian State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette54-67
20/02/26ASouth Alabama90-82 OT
14/02/26HLouisiana Monroe95-84
12/02/26HTroy74-62
07/02/26HWestern Michigan77-61
05/02/26AGeorgia Southern77-71
31/01/26HOld Dominion81-64
29/01/26HMarshall72-68
24/01/26AJames Madison57-82
23/01/26ACoastal Carolina70-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26HGeorgia Southern89-74
19/02/26HMarshall93-94
14/02/26AJames Madison58-69
12/02/26AGeorgia Southern81-65
07/02/26HEastern Michigan65-60
04/02/26HSouth Alabama65-57
31/01/26ATroy66-44
30/01/26ASouthern Miss70-63
23/01/26HLouisiana Monroe59-43
22/01/26HLouisiana Lafayette72-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL60%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayLLWWL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %60%88%23%
Points / game74.377.769.8
Allowed / game71.165.478.5
Point differential+3.2+12.3-8.8
Avg total145.4143.1148.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%53%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)80% (5)25% (4)
Overtime %10%6%15%
Appalachian State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW63%
HomeWWWLW75%
AwayLWWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %63%75%50%
Points / game72.576.967.4
Allowed / game65.663.767.8
Point differential+6.9+13.2-0.4
Avg total138.1140.6135.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%50%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy31201165%80.573.6+6.9
2 Appalachian State30191163%72.565.6+6.9
3 Arkansas State30191163%83.277.8+5.5
4 South Alabama30191163%74.569.5+5.0
5 Marshall30191163%81.277.2+4.0
6 Texas State30181260%74.371.1+3.2
7 Coastal Carolina30181260%73.572.0+1.5
8 James Madison30171357%74.273.7+0.5
9 Southern Miss30151550%74.174.1+0.1
10 Georgia Southern30151550%79.879.8+0.0
11 Old Dominion31112035%75.677.5-1.9
12 Louisiana Lafayette30102033%62.969.6-6.7
13 Georgia State31102132%70.374.4-4.2
14 Louisiana Monroe3142713%72.283.8-11.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Texas State03402660
Appalachian State03302457
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