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Valparaiso vs Incarnate Word Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 20 Nov 2022
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 68-64
29-26 39-38
Position#306
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game79.0
vs
Position#284
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game66.7
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Incarnate Word winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
69-71
69
71
-2
H17/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
72-56
72
56
+16
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
74-69
74
69
+5
H22/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
65-71
65
71
-6
H24/02
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
55-79
55
79
-24
A27/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
81-59
81
59
+22
H04/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
58-67
58
67
-9
A05/03
NCAA
Toledo
#18
L
70-85
70
85
-15
A08/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#345
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H13/11
NCAA
Chicago State
#297
L
74-87
74
87
-13
A17/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-30
33-41
39-23
33-33
36-30
38-39
29-31
36-40
13-34
42-45
43-32
38-27
28-35
30-32
26-52
44-33
40-36
41-29
24-49
50-38
140.8Avg total
69.9Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)75.079.0154.0-4.033%
Season at home (1)81.065.0146.0+16.0100%
Season away (2)72.086.0158.0-14.00%
Last 10 (10)69.970.9140.8-1.040%
Last 5 (5)72.872.6145.4+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)63.675.6139.2-12.00%
vs Similar ◀ (12)71.974.6146.5-2.750%
vs Weaker (7)79.962.0141.9+17.9100%
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Incarnate WordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans
#139
L
57-84
57
84
-27
A12/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#334
L
64-88
64
88
-24
H18/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#149
W
92-84
92
84
+8
H19/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#271
L
68-82
68
82
-14
A25/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#303
W
69-67
69
67
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#103
L
68-77
68
77
-9
H05/03
NCAA
Houston Christian
#271
L
64-74
64
74
-10
A09/03
NCAA
North Dakota
#276
L
57-65
57
65
-8
H08/11
NCAA
UNLV
#123
L
63-88
63
88
-25
A12/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#541
W
84-47
84
47
+37
H16/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-42
33-42
40-42
24-46
38-49
54-35
35-34
33-48
36-34
33-33
31-39
37-38
33-38
31-36
28-28
29-37
29-43
34-45
39-25
45-22
144.2Avg total
68.6Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)68.066.7134.7+1.333%
Season at home (2)70.556.0126.5+14.550%
Season away (1)63.088.0151.0-25.00%
Last 10 (10)68.675.6144.2-7.030%
Last 5 (5)67.270.2137.4-3.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)63.977.4141.3-13.518%
vs Similar ◀ (5)68.675.4144.0-6.820%
vs Weaker (3)89.052.7141.7+36.3100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -3.8-3.81st half: -4.1-4.12nd half2nd half: +2.8+2.82nd half: -2.9-2.9
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -3.8-3.81st half: -4.1-4.12nd half2nd half: +2.8+2.82nd half: -2.9-2.9
ValparaisoIncarnate Word
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H17/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
39-23
39
23
+16
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H24/02
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
13-34
13
34
-21
A27/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A05/03
NCAA
Toledo
#18
L
26-52
26
52
-26
A08/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#345
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H13/11
NCAA
Chicago State
#297
L
24-49
24
49
-25
A17/11
NCAA
66.6Avg total
31.4Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.234.266.3-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.631.766.2+2.950%-
Last 30 away (14)29.437.066.4-7.629%-
Last 10 (10)31.435.266.6-3.850%-
Last 5 (5)32.240.873.0-8.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)27.835.663.4-7.820%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)30.936.967.8-6.025%-
vs Weaker (7)39.029.368.3+9.786%-
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Incarnate WordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans
#139
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A12/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#334
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H18/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#149
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H19/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#271
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A25/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#303
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#103
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Houston Christian
#271
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A09/03
NCAA
North Dakota
#276
D
28-28
28
28
+0
H08/11
NCAA
UNLV
#123
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A12/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#541
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H16/11
NCAA
70.7Avg total
33.3Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.637.468.0-6.730%-
Last 30 at home (16)32.135.467.5-3.238%-
Last 30 away (14)28.939.668.6-10.721%-
Last 10 (10)33.337.470.7-4.130%-
Last 5 (5)32.034.666.6-2.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)28.239.267.4-11.023%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)34.033.067.0+1.020%-
vs Weaker (3)43.031.374.3+11.7100%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Valparaiso wins
0
Incarnate Word wins
No previous meetings.
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/11/22AChicago State74-87
13/11/22HWestern Michigan81-65
08/11/22AToledo70-85
05/03/22AMissouri State58-67
04/03/22HEvansville81-59
27/02/22ABradley55-79
24/02/22HDrake65-71
22/02/22HEvansville74-69
19/02/22AEvansville72-56
17/02/22HLoyola Chicago69-71
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/22HTexas Lutheran84-47
12/11/22AUNLV63-88
08/11/22HNorth Dakota57-65
09/03/22AHouston Christian64-74
05/03/22HTexas A&M-CC68-77
26/02/22AMcNeese State69-67
25/02/22AHouston Christian68-82
19/02/22HSE Louisiana92-84
18/02/22HNorthwestern St.64-88
12/02/22ANew Orleans57-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game75.081.072.0
Allowed / game79.065.086.0
Point differential-4.0+16.0-14.0
Avg total154.0146.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Incarnate Word
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game68.070.563.0
Allowed / game66.756.088.0
Point differential+1.3+14.5-25.0
Avg total134.7126.5151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State330100%88.066.3+21.7
2 Drake330100%80.064.0+16.0
3 Bradley43175%79.266.0+13.2
4 Southern Illinois43175%66.259.5+6.8
5 Northern Iowa21150%80.058.5+21.5
6 Murray State42250%78.873.5+5.2
7 Illinois (Chi.)42250%69.264.2+5.0
8 Illinois State42250%64.564.2+0.2
9 Belmont52340%73.277.2-4.0
10 Valparaiso31233%75.079.0-4.0
11 Evansville41325%62.869.8-7.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin43175%83.065.5+17.5
2 Texas A&M-CC43175%76.866.5+10.2
3 Lamar53260%78.275.2+3.0
4 SE Louisiana53260%74.673.0+1.6
5 Northwestern St.53260%65.868.0-2.2
6 UTRGV42250%81.568.5+13.0
7 Incarnate Word31233%68.066.7+1.3
8 New Orleans31233%60.081.0-21.0
9 McNeese State41325%74.273.8+0.5
10 Houston Christian41325%75.086.5-11.5
11 TX A&M Commerce51420%65.471.0-5.6
12 Nicholls State2020%71.598.0-26.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso293968
Incarnate Word263864
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