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Missouri State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 05 Mar 2022
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 67-58
35-28 32-30
Position#49
Record22-9
FormWWLWW
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game68.3
vs
Position#242
Record14-17
FormWWLLW
Points / game71.2
Allowed / game70.6
USANCAA
Other2021-22
Meetings · Missouri State v Valparaiso
01 Jan 2025
MISS72
VALP73
17 Feb 2024
MISS82
VALP74
01 Feb 2023
MISS76
VALP67
04 Mar 2022
MISS67
VALP58
12 Feb 2022
MISS84
VALP66
05 Mar 2021
MISS66
VALP55
07 Mar 2020
MISS82
VALP89
23 Jan 2020
MISS67
VALP60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#291
L
72-76
72
76
-4
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
72-58
72
58
+14
H30/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
69-54
69
54
+15
A03/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
62-71
62
71
-9
H06/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
W
66-62
66
62
+4
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#242
W
84-66
84
66
+18
H12/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H16/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
75-95
75
95
-20
A20/02
NCAA
Bradley
#164
W
83-67
83
67
+16
H24/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
88-79
88
79
+9
A26/02
NCAA
1H
2H
29-41
43-35
28-21
44-37
29-24
40-30
29-28
33-43
29-30
37-32
41-36
43-30
31-33
48-37
33-49
42-46
43-33
40-34
37-29
51-50
144.8Avg total
75.0Scored
69.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)77.868.3146.0+9.571%
Season at home (18)79.768.1147.8+11.772%
Season away (13)75.168.5143.6+6.569%
Last 10 (10)75.069.8144.8+5.270%
Last 5 (5)81.875.4157.2+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)68.365.0133.3+3.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)80.068.8148.8+11.275%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#187
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
W
79-72 OT
79
72
+7
H06/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
L
75-78 OT
75
78
-3
A10/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
66-84
66
84
-18
A12/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
69-71
69
71
-2
H17/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
72-56
72
56
+16
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
74-69
74
69
+5
H22/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
65-71
65
71
-6
H24/02
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
55-79
55
79
-24
A27/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
81-59
81
59
+22
H04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
28-43
27-34
33-34
27-26
37-33
33-37
36-41
30-43
36-30
33-41
39-23
33-33
36-30
38-39
29-31
36-40
13-34
42-45
43-32
38-27
140.7Avg total
69.1Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)71.270.6141.8+0.545%
Season at home (18)73.768.3141.9+5.450%
Season away (13)67.773.9141.6-6.238%
Last 10 (10)69.171.6140.7-2.540%
Last 5 (5)69.466.8136.2+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)64.773.8138.5-9.110%
vs Similar (12)69.874.2144.1-4.442%
vs Weaker (7)79.962.0141.9+17.9100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: -0.1-0.12nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: -2.8-2.8
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: -0.1-0.12nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: -2.8-2.8
Missouri StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#291
L
29-41
29
41
-12
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
28-21
28
21
+7
H30/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
29-24
29
24
+5
A03/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H06/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#242
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H12/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H16/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A20/02
NCAA
Bradley
#164
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H24/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A26/02
NCAA
65.3Avg total
32.9Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.131.167.2+5.177%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.331.067.3+5.376%-
Last 30 away (13)35.931.267.1+4.877%-
Last 10 (10)32.932.465.3+0.560%-
Last 5 (5)37.036.073.0+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)31.029.860.8+1.267%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)37.631.769.3+5.980%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#187
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H06/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A10/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A12/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H17/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
39-23
39
23
+16
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H24/02
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
13-34
13
34
-21
A27/02
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H04/03
NCAA
66.1Avg total
33.0Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.932.864.7-0.940%-
Last 30 at home (17)33.631.264.9+2.447%-
Last 30 away (13)29.634.864.5-5.231%-
Last 10 (10)33.033.166.1-0.150%-
Last 5 (5)32.030.062.0+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)28.232.760.9-4.530%-
vs Similar (12)29.935.965.8-6.017%-
vs Weaker (7)39.029.368.3+9.786%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Missouri State wins
2
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/22AEvansville88-79
24/02/22HBradley83-67
20/02/22ANorthern Iowa75-95
16/02/22HIndiana State79-70
12/02/22HValparaiso84-66
10/02/22ADrake66-62
06/02/22HLoyola Chicago62-71
03/02/22ASouthern Illinois69-54
30/01/22HEvansville72-58
26/01/22AIndiana State72-76
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/22HEvansville81-59
27/02/22ABradley55-79
24/02/22HDrake65-71
22/02/22HEvansville74-69
19/02/22AEvansville72-56
17/02/22HLoyola Chicago69-71
12/02/22AMissouri State66-84
10/02/22AIllinois State75-78 OT
06/02/22HIndiana State79-72 OT
30/01/22ASouthern Illinois55-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW71%
HomeWLWWW72%
AwayLWWLW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311813
Win %71%72%69%
Points / game77.879.775.1
Allowed / game68.368.168.5
Point differential+9.5+11.7+6.5
Avg total146.0147.8143.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%50%46%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)40% (5)50% (4)
Overtime %3%0%8%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW45%
HomeWLWLW50%
AwayLLLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311813
Win %45%50%38%
Points / game71.273.767.7
Allowed / game70.668.373.9
Point differential+0.5+5.4-6.2
Avg total141.8141.9141.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%28%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (11)38% (8)67% (3)
Overtime %19%22%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 New Mexico State2923679%73.966.0+8.0
2 Middle Tenn. St.3022873%74.366.3+8.0
3 Louisiana Tech2820871%77.468.9+8.5
4 Missouri State3122971%77.868.3+9.5
5 Jacksonville State3021970%74.767.2+7.5
6 Liberty32221069%74.163.8+10.3
7 Delaware30191163%75.271.3+3.9
8 Western Kentucky30181260%76.069.5+6.4
9 UTEP29171259%69.066.6+2.4
10 Sam Houston St.31181358%69.163.7+5.3
11 Kennesaw State31131842%74.871.2+3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State3028293%79.361.7+17.6
2 Belmont3125681%79.468.7+10.7
3 Drake3122971%74.166.3+7.7
4 Northern Iowa29191066%75.570.7+4.8
5 Bradley31171455%70.565.2+5.3
6 Southern Illinois30161453%64.461.2+3.2
7 Illinois (Chi.)30141647%72.072.9-1.0
8 Valparaiso31141745%71.270.6+0.5
9 Illinois State33132039%74.274.7-0.6
10 Indiana State31112035%70.571.9-1.5
11 Evansville3062420%59.270.7-11.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri State353267
Valparaiso283058
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