Virginia faces Arkansas on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Virginia the clear favourite, rating them 81% to win largely because of their 2-0 record, 93.0 points per game and 66.0 allowed per game, the best defensive mark in the league at position 64, and a perfect 2-0 home record. Arkansas, meanwhile, is 1-0 with 106.0 points per game and 61.0 allowed per game, a strong offensive showing but only one game played, and sits 11th in the standings. Virginia's last five games include three wins and two losses, with a 97-72 victory over Northeastern and a 89-60 win over Drexel at home, while Arkansas' five-game span shows four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 106-61 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 86-76 score, giving Virginia a 161.2 projected total and a 76% chance to cover the home line of -2.5; the over on the 158.5 total has a 56% probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The game ends with Virginia's dominant defensive performance and Arkansas's high-scoring offense.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virginia winWon
81.0%fair 1.24
Best odds1.62
Implied60.9%
Edge+20.1pp
Arkansas winLost
19.0%fair 5.25
Best odds2.49
Implied39.1%
Edge-20.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
67.6%
Under 153.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
55.9%
@ 1.83+1.9pp
Under 158.5
44.1%
@ 2.35-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.64
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
Under
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.22
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
43.7%
@ 2.04-2.9pp
Under 163.5
56.3%
@ 1.78+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.01
WilliamHill
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.73
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.70
📊 3. Team Totals
Virginia total 76Actual: Virginia over 76
Over 76
83.8%
Under 76
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virginia total 80 · main lineActual: Virginia over 80
Over 80
71.8%
@ 1.85+21.8pp
Under 80
28.2%
@ 1.85-21.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Virginia total 84Actual: Virginia over 84
Over 84
56.5%
Under 84
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas total 75Actual: Arkansas under 75
Over 75
51.8%
Under 75
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas total 79 · main lineActual: Arkansas under 79
Over 79
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 79
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas total 82.5Actual: Arkansas under 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Virginia -6.5Actual: Virginia -6.5
VIRG -6.5
62.6%
@ 2.30+22.0pp
ARKA +6.5
37.4%
@ 1.55-22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
ARKA
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Spread Virginia -3.5 · main lineActual: Virginia -3.5
VIRG -3.5
72.9%
@ 2.00+22.5pp
ARKA +3.5
27.1%
@ 1.94-22.5pp
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.87
ARKA
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Virginia -0.5Actual: Virginia -0.5
VIRG -0.5
81.0%
ARKA +0.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
No market prices yet.
ARKA
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
VirginiaArkansas
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Arkansas win
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.70
ARKA win
no forecast
@ 2.18
2nd half Spread Virginia -1.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas +1.5
VIRG -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
ARKA +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 85.5 · main lineActual: Over 85.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia (regulation)
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.75
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
ARKA
no forecast
@ 2.22
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Virginia +1
82.4%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.58
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Virginia +1.5
82.7%
1.53
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
Virginia -4
72.0%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
Virginia -3.5
72.9%
1.89
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.87
+22.5pp
Won
Virginia -3
74.9%
1.82
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.75
-
+22.0pp
Won
Virginia over 80
71.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Virginia (regulation)
78.8%
1.58
Betano
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.53
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Virginia -2
78.2%
1.71
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
+21.2pp
Won
Virginia -1
80.6%
1.63
Marathon Bet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Virginia -2.5
75.6%
1.76
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Bet365
1.74
+20.5pp
Won
Virginia win
81.0%
1.56
SBO
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.56
+20.1pp
Won
Virginia -1.5
78.9%
1.65
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
+20.0pp
Won
Virginia +6
91.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Virginia +2
84.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Virginia +2.5
85.1%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Won
Virginia +3
86.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Virginia +5
90.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Virginia +5.5
90.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Virginia +3.5
86.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Virginia +4
88.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Virginia +4.5
88.6%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Virginia +6.5
91.6%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Virginia +7.5
92.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Virginia over 78.5
76.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Virginia over 76.5
81.7%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Virginia over 79.5
72.8%
1.56
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
+10.8pp
Won
Virginia +12.5
96.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Virginia +11.5
96.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Virginia over 77.5
78.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Virginia +17.5
98.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Virginia over 75.5
84.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Virginia +16.5
98.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Virginia over 73.5
88.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Virginia +21.5
99.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Virginia +22.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.4%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9pp
-
Virginia under 102.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 170
71.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Virginia under 101.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 170.5
72.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 172.5
75.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Virginia under 99.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Over 137.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 177.5
84.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Arkansas over 59.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Arkansas over 60.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Virginia under 97.5
88.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 142.5
87.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Arkansas over 61.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Arkansas +23.5
88.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Arkansas over 62.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Virginia under 95.5
84.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Arkansas +22.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Arkansas over 63.5
88.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Over 147.5
79.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Arkansas over 64.5
86.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Virginia under 92.5
75.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Virginia under 93.5
78.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Arkansas over 65.5
83.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Arkansas over 66.5
81.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Virginia under 91.5
72.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Arkansas +18.5
77.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Lost
Arkansas over 67.5
78.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Arkansas over 68.5
75.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Arkansas over 69.5
72.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Arkansas +17.5
75.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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